Hurricane Felix (Update: Category 5 Hurricane )

NWS/NHC ^ | September 1, 2007 | NWS/NHC

[SouthTexas]

At least they didn’t pick Fritz the Cat.

[brytlea]

I kind of like monkeys!
susie

[brytlea]

ROFL!

[SouthTexas]

The west side:

[1COUNTER-MORTER-68]

bttt

[Robert A Cook PE]

Looking at the various trend lines for the (future) track reminds me of how scattered and random the predictions for AGW temperature trends are over the next 200 years: This is a simple 5 day prediction of hurricanes we have been watching since the Spaniards came to Florida (600 years of storm tracks!) and we STILL cannot tell what way a simple low pressure center will curve in the next five days!

Instead, we are faced with ransom motions for each line, every line coming out in a different direction from computer models based on the same inputs.

[txhurl]

[SouthTexas]

As bad, or random, as it may seem, it's far better than the forecasting 30-40 years ago.

Felix will have to continue without me tonight.

[Pebcak]

Yeah, CD what is up with that? Tonight we were watching funnel clouds or something like them on the other side.
What got to us was the incredible stillness here. So unlike any year we can remember.

We have been chasing an unusual number of ‘paper wasps’
they seem desperate to find a shelter. It seems very unusual. Are you seeing anything like that down there?

[Lucius Cornelius Sulla]

Nice chart — gives me the shivers just looking at it.

[RDTF]

Good night!

[txhurl]

My favorite teenage weatherjunkie (Tazmanian) over at WU has incorporated an etch-a-sketch with his sat shots (98L)

[Brent88]

HURRICANE FELIX TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
330 AM AST SUN SEP 02 2007

CORRECTED HEADER

FLIGHT-LEVEL AND DROPSONDE DATA RECENTLY RECEIVED FROM THE UNITED
STATES AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS IN HURRICANE FELIX HAVE INCREASED TO 100 MPH...160
KM/HR...MAKING FELIX A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[bruinbirdman]

Is there another one right behind this Felix dude?

yitbos

[bruinbirdman]

And there's one in front of it hitting Acapulco.

yitbos

[NautiNurse]

Statement as of 5:00 am AST on September 02, 2007

...Felix strengthens to a category two hurricane as its center
passes just north of Bonaire...

a Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch are in effect for the
islands of Aruba...Bonaire...and Curacao.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for Jamaica.

Interests elsewhere in the central and western Caribbean Sea should
closely monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 500 am AST...0900z...the center of Hurricane Felix was located
near latitude 12.8 north...longitude 68.7 west or about 400 miles...
645 km...south-southeast of Santo Domingo in the Dominican
Republic...and about 85 miles...135 km...east-northeast of Aruba.

Felix is moving toward the west near 18 mph...30 km/hr...and this
general motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours.
On this track the center of Felix will pass very near to the north
of Aruba...Bonaire...and Curacao during the next few hours...and
into the open waters of the central Caribbean Sea later today and
tonight.

Data from a Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that
maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph...160 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Felix is a category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale. Some strengthening is forecast...and Felix could become a
major hurricane during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles...30 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115
miles...185 km.

The minimum central pressure recently reported by the Air Force
plane was 984 mb...29.06 inches.

Felix is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 4
inches...with possible maximum isolated amounts of 6 inches...over
the offshore islands of Venezuela and the Netherlands Antilles
islands of Aruba...Bonaire...and Curacao.

Repeating the 500 am AST position...12.8 N...68.7 W. Movement
toward...west near 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds...100 mph.
Minimum central pressure...984 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 800 am AST followed by the next complete advisory at 1100
am AST.

$$
Forecaster Knabb

[NautiNurse]

Felix The Cat 2

Movement toward...west near 18 mph.
Maximum sustained winds...100 mph.
Minimum central pressure...984 mb.

On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here--> -

[bruinbirdman]

Bipping right along at 18mph. Is that fast? Seems the last one in that neck of the woods was moving at a fair clip.

yitbos

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Dean was the speedy one at 20+ mph. Felix is moving at a good pace too.

[Uncle Ike]

Hiya, NN

Thanks for the pings —