Posted on 09/01/2007 6:57:00 AM PDT by NautiNurse
000
WTNT31 KNHC 020250
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FELIX ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
1100 PM AST SAT SEP 01 2007
...CENTER OF FELIX MOVING WESTWARD...LIKELY TO PASS JUST NORTH OF
BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND ARUBA ON SUNDAY...
AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DUTCH NETHERLAND
ANTILLES HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE ISLANDS OF ARUBA...
BONAIRE...AND CURACAO. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN
36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF
ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELIX WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.9 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES...
160 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF BONAIRE AND ABOUT 210 MILES...340 KM...
EAST OF ARUBA.
FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A GENERAL
MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF FELIX JUST
NORTH OF BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND ARUBA ON SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FELIX IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.
FELIX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER
THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS OF VENEZUELA AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES
ISLANDS OF ARUBA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...12.7 N...66.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Statement as of 11:00 PM AST on September 01, 2007
...Center of Felix moving westward...likely to pass just north of
Bonaire...Curacao...and Aruba on Sunday...
at 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...the government of the Dutch Netherland
Antilles has issued a Hurricane Watch for the islands of Aruba...
Bonaire...and Curacao. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane
conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within
36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Warning also remains in effect for the islands of
Aruba...Bonaire...and Curacao. A Tropical Storm Warning means that
tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area
within the next 24 hours.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect for Jamaica. A tropical
storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible
within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the central and western Caribbean Sea should
closely monitor the progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 1100 PM AST...0300z...the center of Hurricane Felix was located
near latitude 12.7 north...longitude 66.9 west or about 100 miles...
160 km...east-northeast of Bonaire and about 210 miles...340 km...
east of Aruba.
Felix is moving toward the west near 18 mph...30 km/hr. A general
motion toward the west or west-northwest is expected during the
next 24 hours. This motion should bring the center of Felix just
north of Bonaire...Curacao...and Aruba on Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph...120 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Felix is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale. Strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles...30 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140
miles...220 km.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb...29.32 inches.
Felix is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches over
the offshore islands of Venezuela and the Netherlands Antilles
islands of Aruba...Bonaire and Curacao.
Repeating the 1100 PM AST position...12.7 N...66.9 W. Movement
toward...west near 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds...75 mph.
Minimum central pressure...993 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 200 am AST followed by the next complete advisory at 500
am AST.
$$
Forecaster Beven
Much better.
Who is that little guy, following him?
Who is that little guy, following him?
I thought 98 was the one up the east coast.
Guess not.
I thought so at first too. They dropped that one.
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 01, 2007
a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft reported 77 kt winds at a flight
level of 7500 ft...and surface winds around 65 kt on the stepped
frequency microwave radiometer. The aircraft also reported that a
central pressure of 993 mb and a 30 N mi wide eye. Based on this...
Felix has been upgraded to a hurricane. The initial intensity is
65 kt for this advisory...and it is possible this could be
conservative.
Felix has moved more westward for the past few hours...and the
initial motion is 275/16. Other than that...there is little change
in the track forecast philosophy. A deep-layer ridge north of the
hurricane should continue building westward through 72 hr...which
should keep Felix on a course toward the west-northwest or west.
The model guidance is in good agreement through this time. After
72 hr...the large-scale models somewhat disagree on the strength of
the ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico and troughing over Texas.
The GFS and ECMWF continue to call for a more westward motion
toward southern Yucatan or Central America...and the GFDL has made
a southward shift to join them. On the other hand...the NOGAPS
calls for a northwestward motion across the northeastern corner of
the Yucatan Peninsula...with the UKMET and GFDN being somewhat to
the south of that. The new forecast track is between these
extremes in best agreement with the consensus models and the FSU
superensemble. It is a little south of the previous track through
72 hr due to the initial position and motion...and a little to the
north of the previous track after 96 hr.
Felix currently has fair to good outflow in all quadrants...and the
large-scale models agree that favorable upper-level winds should
continue through the forecast period. Thus...there are no obvious
reasons that Felix should not steadily intensify until it
approaches Central America...and the intensity forecast calls for
that in agreement with the SHIPS and experimental lge models. The
rapid intensity index attached to the SHIPS model continues to call
for a 30-40 percent chance of rapid intensification...so it would
not be surprising if Felix was stronger than forecast by 72 hr.
The intensity forecast after 72 hr may be dependent on a
combination of land interaction and eyewall replacement cycles...
both of which are uncertain at this time. However...present
indications are that Felix will be a major hurricane over the
western Caribbean Sea until it makes landfall.
Forecast positions and Max winds
initial 02/0300z 12.7n 66.9w 65 kt
12hr VT 02/1200z 13.2n 69.6w 75 kt
24hr VT 03/0000z 14.0n 73.2w 85 kt
36hr VT 03/1200z 14.7n 76.6w 90 kt
48hr VT 04/0000z 15.4n 79.7w 100 kt
72hr VT 05/0000z 16.5n 84.5w 110 kt
96hr VT 06/0000z 18.0n 88.5w 110 kt...inland
120hr VT 07/0000z 20.5n 92.5w 65 kt
$$
forecaster Beven
Hopefully he won’t have a bag of tricks!
susie
You’ll laugh so much your sides will ache, your heart will go pitta pat, watching felix..the wonderful cat!
susie
I don’t like cats. Maybe he will go chase monkeys.
It has rained (hard) here just about every afternoon for the last week or so. It just keeps rolling in from the Gulf.
2004 was not a good year even in central Florida.
Gosh, I was a day late and a dollar short! Oh well, alls well that ends well!
susie
I'll never be able to mow.
Some hurricane namers were probably patting themselves on the back yesterday for picking Felix, a safe name that people couldn’t turn in to something funny.
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