Blair 'to hand over power in May'

BBC ^ | 7 September 2006

[fieldmarshaldj]

I rechecked the Constitutional Amendments, and the succession one (Amen. XXV) was enacted in 1967. I had forgotten about the succession line and what year it had come into play. Fortunately, up until that point and ever since, we had never had a situation where anyone below VP was thrust into the Presidency.

I was thinking, also, that it's rather possible that had Willkie defeated FDR for a 3rd term in '40, that the term limits provision would never have gone into effect. While the nation could tolerate a 3rd term for an exceptional Chief Executive, 4 terms/16 consecutive years was too close to dictatorship. I'd imagine had FDR made it to 1948 and announced he was running for a 5th term, he probably would've finally lost (if I remember correctly, his margins of victory shrunk with each election after 1936).

I can tell you my best educated guess as to whom would've been Secretary of State, but it would not have been Taft, whom I'm sure would've preferred to remain in a leadership role in the Senate, and the only other Republican I can think of, of exceptionally high-profile on the issue of foreign policy, and that would've been Sen. Arthur Vandenberg of Michigan. Were I Willkie, he would've been at the top of my list for that esteemed position.

The nation would've been in good hands with a Secretary Vandenberg acting as President (the only downside, however, is that Vandenberg, having run for reelection that year (1940), is that the incoming Governor of Michigan was Democrat Murray Van Wagoner, whom would've appointed a Dem to his seat -- although a prompt resignation before January would've allowed outgoing GOP Governor Luren Dickinson to have resigned and directed the new interim GOP Governor (and first female Governor of Michigan, Matilda Wilson, herself an interim appointee when Dickinson moved up to Governor upon the death of Frank Fitzgerald) to appoint him to fill the vacancy. Of course, had Willkie won the election, Dickinson might've been elected to a full term as Governor in his own right (as the strength of FDR allowed the Dems to capture the Gov's office).

I'd also add with regard to Willkie and his health, I don't think he showed any signs of slowing down in his final year ('44), and he was actively working to establish the NY Liberal Party. He was already planning to run for Mayor of NYC on it in 1945, and if successful, use his prominence in that position to probably run for President again in 1948 (establishing the Liberals as a viable national 3rd party -- of which surely would've been a fiasco for the Democrats and a good chunk of the Eastern Establishment wing of the GOP -- had it proved successful).

[AuH2ORepublican]

The 25th Amendment allows the President to name a new VP (subject to confirmation by the House and Senate) in case of a vacancy in the vice presidency, but who serves as President when there are vacancies in both the presidency and vice presidency is delegated to Congress by Article II of the Constitution. The succession law adoted in 1947, which places the Speaker and President Pro Tem after the VP, is still in effect.

Vandenberg was a renown isolationalist until 1945, so I don't know if Willkie would have named him SoS. As for Taft, he sought the GOP presidential nomination in 1940, so I don't think he would have turned down the chance to be SoS and heir apparent to the presidency in 1943 or 1944. We'll never know.

[fieldmarshaldj]

OK, thanks for clarifying some of that, I'm feeling like a dunce this evening. ;-)

Regarding Vandenberg, I always thought his conversion to internationalism was a bit earlier than '45 (at least with regards to war policy, notwithstanding his famous speech), although I still think his views likely would've been in line with Willkie's at the time of the '40 election, and was a leader on the Foreign Relations committee.

[MinorityRepublican]

We'll miss you Tony Blair.