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Posted on 08/30/2006 6:30:12 PM PDT by NautiNurse
On the radar loops, the circulation center actually appears to be opening up to the N and NE. Sometimes you can see what looks like an eye on the visible that is just a temporary feature.
It's an eye. Poorly defined, but an eye. From the last vortex message:
URNT12 KWBC 311544
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 31/1525Z
B. 31 DEG 21 MIN N
79 DEG 21 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1386 M
D. 50 KT
E. 260 DEG 15 NM
F. 332 DEG 38 KT
G. 280 DEG 22 NM
H. 994 MB
I. 17 C/2145 M
J. 18 C/2144 M
K. 13 C/NA
L. POORLY DEFINED
M. NA
N. 12345/8
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA2 2205A ERNESTO OB 12 AL052006
MAX FL WIND 54 KT S QUAD 1400Z
STRONG CONVECTION S-NW OF CENTER
That was an hour ago. Since then, the circulation has opened up to the north quite a bit and convection has wrapped in where the eye had started to form. The shear is working on the entire upper half of the system now.
He's going to run out of ocean before he forms up anymore. I agree with a previous poster that the most ominous feature is that long arm of convection to the east. That's going to push right up into NC and VA.
You keep saying he's being sheared. What shear??
There is pronounced shear from the adjacent frontal zone to the west. That is pushing the northern edge of the convection away from the center. You can see the convection pattern open up considerably over the last hour on the radar loops, and now it's even clear on the visible. The circulation into the center now has a distinct hook pattern.
I don't see how shear is impacting the center of the storm. If anything, cooler water and eventually land are the only things I see impacting him in the near term.
When is the next advisory?
Shear is one of the most critical factors impacting hurricanes, for cryin' out loud. That and dry Saharan air over much of the Atlantic is why this season has been so quiet. You can have bath water in the Gulf and a hurricane will not develop if upper-level shear is blowing the convection away from any center of low pressure.
2 PM
Thanks, I am in SC and want to keep informed.
I understand that. What I am saying is that shear is not a major factor for this storm right now. You're the only poster anywhere I see mentioning it at all.
Cripes, there is 20 knot shear from the southwest blowing over much of the circulation, especially in the nothern sector. The shear is coming from the low pulling Ernesto to the north. That is more than enough to significantly inhibit any futher intensification, and you can see the circulation opening up over the last couple of hours if you are looking at it without a bias that this will become a 75 kt hurricane because it is over warm water. It isn't just my opinion. It is right there in front of you on the radar loops.
Did I say this would become a 75 knot hurricane? No, I didn't. What I am saying is that shear is not preventing intensification at the moment. 64 knots constitutes a hurricane, and I would not be at all suprised to see that happen in the next few hours.
I don't pretend to be a professinal met, but I'm not a complete idiot either.
DATA FROM A NOAA P-3 RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ERNESTO COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE AND REACH THE
COAST AS A HURRICANE.
You said this earlier on this thread:
He could easily get to 80 MPH before landfall.
So you are looking for what you believe is happening, instead of what IS happening.
What I am saying is that shear is not preventing intensification at the moment.
And I'm saying you're wrong. Check out Jeff Master's blog on wunderground - he's saying the same thing. Obviously the NHC also thinks the shear is a factor, given that they do not expect this to be a hurricane at landfall despite a long run over the Gulf Stream.
This ain't the time or place for a weather forum piss*** contest, so I ain't gonna bother responding to you further on this subject. But you also should not be spreading misleading info this close to landfall which is overstating the potential for intensification. 20 knot shear will always impact a storm. And the storm is also running into a stationary front now as well. Those are the facts in the air.
Statement as of 2:00 PM EDT on August 31, 2006
...Ernesto nearing hurricane strength...
a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from the Savannah River
northward to Currituck Beach Light including the Pamlico and
Albemarle sounds.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from South Santee River South
Carolina to Cape Lookout North Carolina. A Hurricane Watch means
that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...in
this case within the next 12 hours.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 200 PM EDT...1800z...the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was
located near latitude 31.9 north...longitude 79.1 west or about 180
miles...285 km...south-southwest of Wilmington North Carolina and
about 90 miles...145 km...southeast of Charleston South Carolina.
Ernesto is moving toward the north-northeast near 17 mph...28 km/hr.
On this track the center of Ernesto will be near the coast of
the Carolinas later today.
Data from a NOAA p-3 reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph...110 km/hr...with
higher gusts. Ernesto could strengthen a little more and reach the
coast as a hurricane.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 85 miles...140 km
mainly to the north and east of the center.
Latest minimum pressure reported by a NOAA p-3 reconnaissance plane
was is 993 mb...29.32 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels
is possible along the coasts of south and North Carolina in areas
of onshore flow within the warning area.
Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are possible from South Carolina
into the mid-Atlantic states...and the southern and central
Appalachians...with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches...through
Saturday. These amounts could cause life-threatening flash floods.
Isolated tornadoes are possible over eastern North Carolina late
this afternoon and tonight.
Repeating the 200 PM EDT position...31.9 N...79.1 W. Movement
toward...north-northeast near 17 mph. Maximum sustained winds...60
mph. Minimum central pressure...993 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
500 PM EDT.
I'm really not sure that the shear is doing much... the strongest axis of shear is well north still.
The shear has opened up the circulation to the north. There were signs of an eyewall trying to form, but now the circulation has become more spread out over the last two hours and the circulation has much more of a hook-shaped appearance now. Also, the system is now starting to bump up against the frontal boundary to the NW, and that will bring more shear as well.
I think the intensification probably has peaked. And there really isn't enough difference between a 70 mph tropical storm and an 80 mph hurricane to be having a pissing contest at this point, so, like I said, I'd rather we go back to posting observations of coastal and ground impacts about now. There are plenty of flame wars on the weather forum threads over intensification, and I really don't care to have that here. But I also don't want MSM-style alarmism, either.
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