Mexican Tribunal Rules Against Lopez Obrador's Request for a Complete Recount (Translation)

eluniversal.com.mx ^ | August 5, 2006 | Arturo Zárate & Jorge Herrera ( translated by self )

[Shuttle Shucker]

Does ObraGore look like a happy camper today to YOU? :-) Anybody else wanna caption this new photo? :-)

[BunnySlippers]

Hi SJ!!!

I think if there was a TOTAL recount and Calderon won again that these people would still be agitating. :-P

[StJacques]

Hi BS!!!

"I think if there was a TOTAL recount and Calderon won again that these people would still be agitating."

Yes they would BunnySlippers. Because thousands of the electoral packets were opened by the IFE in the preparation of documentary reports for the TEPJF, AMLO and company would then say "You see! That's why they didn't agree to a total recount when we first asked for it! They needed to get into the packets to commit their fraud."

Nothing will ever satisfy AMLO and his followers BunnySlippers. Nothing.

[BunnySlippers]

OBRADOR SUPPORTERS

[StJacques]

May God Save Us All!

[Texan5]

I don't think threatening to interrupt telephone and internet service and and acting out this mob mentality is going to win Obrador's people any friends-and this ugliness can't possibly be helping Mexico's tourist industry, either. I do hope and pray that all this does not erupt into violence when people get sick and tired of the childish antics, though.

[machogirl]

thanks for the ping

[Shuttle Shucker]

Interestingly enough, this Houston Chronicle article says that around 4 million votes are subject to the recount and that they're basically in PAN strongholds:

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/4097247.html

The article also says the PRD's ObraGore's prospects are considered bleak.

It's disconcerting to see the PRD official saying that their "peaceful" civil resistance will involve their making others spill their blood, the blood of the oppressed, Gandhi-style. Some lunkheads down there have nothing better to do than to jump to their death in front of metro trains and let the PRD claim it was in protest. I'd be interested to see how the bets on that Irish wagering site are regarding ObraGore's prospects now. Hopefully they haven't improved?

[StJacques]

Okay everyone, think of this ping as an "update" rather than an "alert," as I just want to inform all of you of a couple of minor items and to let you all know that I expect more important news to be coming out of the Mexico City meeting Lopez Obrador is holding in the Zocalo capital square this afternoon.

First; the Mexico City newspaper La Crónica de Hoy has put up a more detailed discussion of the Electoral Tribunal's decision yesterday (in Spanish) at:

http://www.cronica.com.mx/nota.php?id_nota=254745

The article essentially recapitulates what is in the translated article at the top of this thread, but with more detail, especially on what the Tribunal said to Lopez Obrador's representatives. I did get the impression from what I read that the presiding judge of the Tribunal, Leonel Castillo Gonzalez, seemed to accuse the "For the Good of All" coalition of making wild accusations and ignoring the dictates of Mexican law which he spelled out to them repeatedly when framing the Tribunal's response, which, by the way, was by unanimous vote of the seven magistrates. There are two specific pieces of information I want to relate from that article, and these pertain to questions asked yesterday near the beginning of this thread as to whether this guaranteed that there actually would be a hand recount of the ballots in the affected precincts, and the answer clearly is "yes it does"; and where are the actual precincts that will be recounted located (whose boxes are we talking about here?). After reading this article I can now tell that in Mexican electoral law there is a distinction made between "Scrutiny" and "Count." "Scrutiny" refers to a re-examination of the Actas, which are the official reports of votes from each Casilla or precinct. And "Count" refers to the actual counting of the ballots within each precinct. The Tribunal has declared that both shall take place in the 11,839 precincts, so that means they will all be recounted one by one.

Now; to the question asked about where the precincts to be recounted are located, to which I responded that all that I knew is that they were PAN strongholds; I can now put up a list: Aguascalientes; Baja California; Guanajuato; Jalisco; Morelos; Querétaro; San Luis Potosí and Yucatán. The only central Mexican state PAN carried where no recounts will take place is Tlaxcala (located to the northeast of Mexico City). And I note with interest that Sonora, Chihuahua, and Coahuila are not on the list which strikes me as important, because these are the three states where PRD representatives disrupted the work of the IFE on the Wednesday following the election, delaying their reporting of votes. If those three are not going to be recounted it is a big slap in the face to AMLO and the PRD because they maded a lot of noise alleging fraud there on the occasion of the certified count.

Right now AMLO and his supporters are meeting in Mexico City and I expect I'm going to see some news coming out of this and I believe exactly what is said will be very important. Yesterday a prominent PRD Senator, Raymundo Cardenas of Zacatecas, made some very specific threats about what would be done (see my post #15 above) including the disruption of telephone and internet service throughout the country. And in my post #24 above you will see that the Fox government has sent in elements of the Army and Navy (I don't know if the Mexican Navy has units like our Marines, but I suspect this is what we're talking about here) into Mexico City to guard important government and economic sites which AMLO and his followers may consider specific targets. So the tension is there and I will be very interested to see whether AMLO decides he wants to take the destructive route some of the hard-line PRD militants are calling for or whether he urges a more calm and peaceful course of action. What must be clearly evident to AMLO right now is that his shutdown of central Mexico City this past week, which has damaged his own support among Federal District residents and has cost him the backing of some top labor unions, did not intimidate the Electoral Tribunal or the federal government. So it will be very interesting to see what AMLO plans.

[Enterprise]

"If those three are not going to be recounted it is a big slap in the face to AMLO and the PRD because they made a lot of noise alleging fraud there on the occasion of the certified count."

Excellent news. I'm glad that they basically told them that their accusations were looney and without substance.

As to bringing in the Navy, I suspect that their Navy also has a contingent of Marines. Our early Navy needed Marines for land engagements, but the Marines have grown to be basically independent of the Navy. There has been talk of the Navy instituting another land engagement force, not of Marines, but of sailors who will be trained in duties similar to the Marines. The Navy has a lot of people who can be trained, since only one in 10 is accepted into the SEALS.

[BunnySlippers]

One never seens to hear about the Mexican military. Are they deployed anywhere? Bosnia, Iraq, anywhere?

[StJacques]

Yes; they're deployed to Mexico City. LOL! :)

I think most of the force in based in Aguascalientes, not too far from Mexico City (north and slightly west).

[BunnySlippers]

I'm going to have to Google the Mexican military.
Can they be more inconsequental?

[StJacques]

"Can they be more inconsequental?"

Not much; they sent a very token force to serve in the first Gulf War, nothing really notable but they were there to make a political statement. And they are not very large within Mexico either. For the first hundred years the Mexican Army was a major force in Mexican politics; Santa Ana and Porfirio Diaz were both Generals. But the Mexican Revolution turned all that around after their memory of the coup by General Victoriano Huerta (about 1911 from memory) that sent the whole process into a violent downward spiral. They've been kept on a very short leash ever since.

[Enterprise]

Evidently they were in the U.S. for a little while last year.

"KELLY USA, Texas, Sept. 26, 2005 – Not since the 1840s has the Mexican military flown its flag as a deployed military force in the United States, Mexican officials here said today - especially so close to the site of the famed battle of the Alamo where Texas volunteers fought the Mexicans in a bloody daylong clash.

On Sept. 25, the 184-person Mexican army contingent completed its 20-day long mission to provide relief to hurricane victims and relief workers from Katrina and Rita.

In a small ceremony here conducted by the Mexican consulate, the Mexicans ceremonially ended their mission. Now they will break down their camp, pack their equipment, fold their flag and drive back to Mexico.

Mexican Army in Texas

[StJacques]

BunnySlippers I must correct myself, I wrote that from memory Huerta's coup was about 1911. Well I looked it up and it was 1913. Not too far off but not good enough for FR.

[Texan5]

It sounds like Obrador needs to leash up his dogs now and go home, or there is going to be trouble.

[Texan5]

I used to like to go to the state of Michoacan because there were so many interesting places to see-the only thing I did not like about the place was that the people seemed to practically worship communism-I even drove through a town once named after some past leader with commie leanings, complete with a statue of him. I haven't been there in 20 years, but I wonder if the politics of that state have changed for the better?

[Shuttle Shucker]

Nice post. Some things that may be worth considering when trying to predict AMLO's moves:

*School is back in session soon, supposedly in another week. The day that TRIFE announces the vote recount results, the youth will be in school accessing the internet and listening to teachers. Mexico's got a lot of young voters and potential ones, and AMLO needs to be on the tip of their tongues at least for a while so he can run again in half a decade.

*The PRD's Cardenas, their presidential candidate in 1988, protested a truly bizarre electoral result that year, and managed to become the candidate again in 1994, and I believe in 2000 as well. His support dwindled each time but such 1988 protests nevertheless kept Cardenas (a lousy debater whose governorship of Mexico City was considered even more lousy) from being accused of "fixing" matters with the opposition. In contrast, in 1994 Diego Fernandez of the PAN was accused of "fixing" matters instead of protesting after his presidential elections loss, and he was not seriously considered as a potential contender in 2000. Fox was allowed to run away with the PAN's nomination in 2000, and Felipe Calderon was not only not pleased, but was fired by Fox years later over something minor (sort of campaigning in Jalisco, while serving as Energy Secretary for less than a year). So Lopez Obrador may be trying to solidify his chances of winning the party nod unopposed again in 2012. He may also hope that these antics will make him a politically viable force during the entire Calderon presidency, too.

Regardless, Mexico hasn't had a lawyer as president in decades. Felipe will know how to deal with this sort of mess, even if merely from behind the scenes prior to his Dec. 1st inauguration. Blocking traffic like this needs to become a federal crime, punishable severely. Otherwise how can Mexico compete against China and so on and so forth....

[Shuttle Shucker]

The PRD's founder, Cardenas, is from Michoacan. But so is Felipe Calderon :-) [who carried Michoacan, if I'm not mistaken]