Posted on 07/15/2006 11:24:32 PM PDT by BurbankKarl
Looks like Israel wised up a little bit. The Haaretz reports focus on attacks against Israel, probably because IDF isn't loudly crowing over every offensive move they make.
In the distributed battlespace, reporters cannot keep up with all of Israel's attacks in realtime.
Excellent information management IMO, something that is becoming an increasing part of battle calculus, and something which the US could still learn from.
In this wired world, it is becoming more important who the world thinks wins a battle or war, than who actually wins it. When a master strategist like Karl Rove is kept out of military decisions and wartime information management, and is not replaced with someone of equal or greater ability who also has TS clearance, it is not surprising that many claim we can win wars better than anyone, but have a hard time winning the peace that follows.
In my opinion, today's most successful general has a doctorate in information management, to go along with his other advanced degrees.
Doing that flight 800 thing for like the 20th time this weekend......... It seems like I could narrate along with it now the number of times I've ended up catching a piece of it while trying to once again see if someone has real news. LOL.
Man is it irritating to be watching reruns by 8 pm out west...especially when you know you have another 4 hours before you get anything 'real' again...and then that's CNNi.
The Patriots are deployed in Haifa....remember, they were barely responsive to the Scuds from Iraq 15 years ago....which had a higher arc in the sky and longer time to be targeted.
The rockets that Hezbollah is firing are like dumb cruise missiles. They fly lower on the horizon, and emit no radar or electronic signatures. The enhancements made have extended the range, and they have packed the explosives with fragments (think pachinko balls) that shoot in every direction on detonation.
From the description in Haifa...some number of victims were not near the explosion, but were hit by the flying metals balls.
I suspect a lot of assumptions are undergoing re-alignment, using Iranian TOE's instead of Syrian TOE's now, in light of precisely this development.
I also suspect that losses from using the old assumption set are not fully behind us yet.
Also, these rockets are launched based on the compass.....pointing them to the heading where the target is at, and dialing in how long they are to burn....for the estimated distance.
They say 1000 rockets fired, there is a low rate of kill, with only a couple dozen dead Israelis.
What I want to see is how many Hezzies have been sent away.
Hearing Hezbollah putting out a call for fighters indicates to me that they are in big trouble.
The Israeli Ambassador speaks to the blogosphere in a time of war.
http://politicscentral.com/2006/07/16/israels_ambassador_to_the_us_s.php
May their big trouble continue...and worsen.
Arizona Carolyn
wrote:
What do you make of this?
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1666974/posts
I strongly suspect that the subject which initiated the contact was Abdullah's stance against Hezbollah in the Arab League discussions.
It seems that the Arab League was later able to reach a consensus of sorts, so Ahmadinejad's message may well have taken root.
The spectrum of discussion available to Ahmadinejad is limited by his ability to offer Abdullah what he wants, or to remove the threat of what Abdullah does not want.
From there, the most likely topic would be an Iran-Saudi non-aggression pact, along with a promise not to engage Israel militarily unless certain triggering thresholds of Israeli aggression, agreeable to Abdullah, were reached.
Abdullahs primary concerns seem to be a threat from a global increase in Iran's political power, an increase in Iran's military influence, and general unrest, both internal and external.
Not a whole lot of help, I'm afraid, but maybe a glimmer of the edges and outline of the substance behind the mist.
bookmark
You just provided them a free one. : )
I hate it too. They say irritating ads work b/c they are remembered. I make a conscious decision not to purchase products from those who irritate me on purpose. Too bad others don't do the same.
bookmark
Patriot uses a two tiered acquisition sytem. Early warning assets, NORAD, for example, detect the launch, and feed a window to individual batteries to look through to acquire an inbound target.
Small short range rockets are not thermally productive enough to exceed the triggering thresholds on early warning sensors, and therefore Patriot does not know where to look.
There are timing issues as well. Patriot launchers do not slew very quickly, and they are generally used in temporarily fixed arrays, with each launcher responsible for a specific segment of the threat axis.
For these reasons, Patriot is classified as a Theater Ballistic Missile Defense system. It is also a Point Defense System, as opposed to an Area Defense System.
To counter the kind of rockets generally in use by Hezbollah, up until recently anyway, you'd use more of a counterbattery system, like what we use to find and suppress enemy artillery batteries.
If things get ugly, then Patriot will become a factor, and this is a development you don't look forward to. I had hoped that Arrow IV, Israel's advanced Ballistic Missile Defense System, would be online before Iran crossed the line into open aggression, and this may still happen.
In fact, this one variable, the threat of Arrow IV coming online, eventually, may be partly responsible for Iran's elevated levels of aggression now. With impending UNSC sanctions, Iran is less likely to be able to threaten Israeli nuclear facilities as time goes by.
Clearly Israel has degraded Hezbollah's lines of communication, meaning that consumable materials will soon or eventually dry up. Outside of a large stockpile of rockets, I've seen no indications of other stockpiles of materials necessary to support offensive actions, but this doesn't mean that they do not exist.
Hezbollah may be attempting to make up in numbers what they cannot obtain logistically, for an offensive, to maintain a credible defense, or to maintain survival levels.
From a strategic point of view, manpower is a consumable resource during combat operations. I consider it unlikely that Israel has made significant inroads into Hezbollah troop strength, typically infantry dig in during airstrikes and emerge when the planes leave. My guess is that Hezbollah is calling for men as a contingency, in case future Israeli maneuvers include a ground assault.
some Haaretz headlines from their news ticker:
08:48 IDF arrested 12 wanted Palestinian militants in overnight West Bank raids (Itim)
08:32 Two Qassam rockets land in Ashkelon; no casualties or damage reported (Channel 10)
08:07 One IDF soldier lightly injured in fighting in northern Gaza Strip (Israel Radio)
07:57 Asia-Pacific officials working to evacuate citizens from Lebanon (AP)
I also suspect that losses from using the old assumption set are not fully behind us yet.I also fear I am in danger from being taken out by defconw and eeevil conservative. You need to know where your threats are from..
More stuff burning in Lebanon....hit the docks again...they must keep trying to set up more rockets there.
Army Barracks attacked.
Thanks for eaplaining clearly, and not making me feel like an idiot for asking!
I bet the Lebanese base was full of Iranians
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