France's Sarkozy calls for compromise over jobs law

Speaking of Villiers, do you expect FN supporters to start defecting to Villiers now that JMLP is starting to stumble?

Also is Sarkozy still favored to be chosen by the UMP over Villepin or is Chirac able to annoint Villepin as succesor in the UMP?

I would hope Villepin would win the leadership because there would be large numbers of voters in the UMP who would move over to Villiers' column were Villepin to take over the leadership.

"Speaking of Villiers, do you expect FN supporters to start defecting to Villiers now that JMLP is starting to stumble?"

Not many, no. The LePen phenomenon has always been a personality cult. The infirmity of Le Pen will end that movement. Also, the FN members are well and truly racist, many of them. Villiers' natural base of support lies more in the French middle class "silent majority"...people who really are not racists, and who do not favor an immigration policy based on invidious racism, but who see the threat to the country and see the instability, and want it stopped. The folks who voted against the EU Constitution who weren't FN types are the sort of folks that Villiers has a shot at picking up.

"Also is Sarkozy still favored to be chosen by the UMP over Villepin or is Chirac able to annoint Villepin as succesor in the UMP?"

Sarkozy was never favored. Villepin is the more powerful and charismatic man. The problem for the UMP is that they obviously can't govern. They're just plain incompetent, at apparently everything.

The election will probably be Villepin vs. Mme. Royal, and she will win.
I can imagine an election that's Villiers vs. Mme. Royal. He might win that.

But that's probably fantasy on my part.

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