Hurricane Wilma Live Thread, Part III (TS Alpha gets honorable mention too)

NHC - NOAA ^ | 22 October 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[steveegg]

Mayfield - Wilma will come off the coast as a Cat 2, come over the loop current and probably become a Cat 3. He then discussed some trends that may take Wilma back to Cat 2 before landfall, and Wilma is likely to be just off Florida by Monday morning.

[laz]

And so it begins now for Florida. Intermission is over.

[NonValueAdded]

Melbourne EWS just activated .. Hurricane watch issued for Florida East Coast from Titusville southward.

[steveegg]

Both CNN and Fox drop out before Mayfield started taking questions. As far as I can tell, MSNBC never picked this up.

[NautiNurse]

We are under a Tropical Storm Watch now.

[SE Mom]

You can take on that task if you like:)

We in Florida are taking the winter OFF.

Nauti Nurse deserves a lllong, restful vacation. (with plenty of malted milkballs)

[tiredoflaundry]

Here we go! Prayers for all in Wilma's path!

[not-alone]

Thanks

[NonValueAdded]

Second alert just went off ... Tropical Storm Watch from Titusville north to Fernandina Beach.

[xcamel]

25 years of weather study might have taught me a thing or two about expecting the unexpected, and accurately predicting things that other people generally dismiss.

..and where I live has nothing to do with it.

I'm not trying to steal your thunder, just add to the body of knowledge at hand.

[laz]

Where do they get a speed of 2 mph? Didn't you calculate 4.6 based on the hunters' report? I was expecting her in the GOM tonight, and suddenly she's on the coast.

[NautiNurse]

For the last time, what part of "preliminary forecast" indicates anyone is writing anything off?

[jeffers]

If I may borrow your handle for a moment, Steveegg, to answer a post isolated by the thread change...


Certain_Doom wrote:

"To: jeffers

What is that program you are using to simulate flood waters?


1,543 posted on 10/22/2005 3:50:32 PM EDT by Certain_Doom"


Those go through a chain of different programs. I use Netscape to FTP down the elevation and other datasets, IE where Java is required so I can keep it turned off in Netscape, 3DEM and or MicroDEM if I need to merge multiple datasets, 3DEM or Global Mapper to artificially raise and surge/sea level, and Photoshop to size, annotate and prep the end result for uploading.

[steveegg]

Where do they get a speed of 2 mph? Didn't you calculate 4.6 based on the hunters' report? I was expecting her in the GOM tonight, and suddenly she's on the coast.

They use a 6-hour average to average out the wobbles, while I simply use the last 2 vortex data reports.

[NCjim]

Looks like the governor of SC has a sense of humor...

[xcamel]

current GOM water temps (SST)

Looks like Wilma has pulled some "extra" warm water up in to the gulf proper. This could be just enough fuel to reach cat3 again before landfall in FL.

SST chart

[SamAdams76]

I'll be taking the New England snowstorms.

[dawn53]

I just looked at the models and see that Wunderground puts it the other side of the state by Monday.

Tomorrow we'll decide if we're going to board up the windows. We'll probably do at least the picture windows in front. I always have visions of my across the golf course neighbor's roof tiles flying through my front windows, LOL.

Hubby will probably get called in tomorrow. Most of the preparations the 17 year old can do by himself, but it takes both of them to get the boards over the big windows.

Are you going to board up?

[laz]

This could be just enough fuel to reach cat3 again before landfall in FL.

I simply don't believe the people who say she'll hit FL as a Cat 1 or a TS. I don't think anyone in FL can afford to believe that. If those people turn out to be right, great. But I'm not operating on the assumption that they are. This storm has pulled too many surprises already.

[xcamel]

correction: SST