Hurricane Wilma Live Thread, Part III (TS Alpha gets honorable mention too)

NHC - NOAA ^ | 22 October 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[Termite_Commander]

Who has to manage the threads on snow storms? Inquiring minds want to know.

[2Jedismom]

Thank you.

[NautiNurse]

Who has to manage the threads on snow storms?

I can assure you who will not be doing that chore...

[MonroeDNA]

IR looks like it's heading quick NE.

[Termite_Commander]

lol

[steveegg]

Thanks again. New thread just in time for the 5 pm updates, including yet another NHC presser.

[laz]

Wilma is on the move. Check out 20:15 on the visible floater. Center is on the coastline.

[pageonetoo]

Thank you bump...

[RGVTx]

NautiNurse deserves a well earned vacation.
Where do we send the funds?

[steveegg]

Who has to manage the threads on snow storms? Inquiring minds want to know.

Themselves? I'll be out snowblowing :-P

[NautiNurse]

I don't think I'd be so quick to write off Alpha..

If you can tell me where I 'wrote off Alpha,' I'd like to see it.

[nwctwx]

I think the southern 1/3 of the FL peninsula is still the best bet, some of the spread includes Tampa, but a storm hitting from the SW that far north on the peninsula is extremely rare. My general ideas from a few days ago remain the same, Punta Gorda area and south are at most risk still. 105-115 at landfall also still makes sense, but I do wonder how much strengthening we will see over water before the trough really grabs hold of her.

[xcamel]

Preliminary forecasts indicate TS Alpha will not affect the U.S. mainland.

OK?

[NautiNurse]

What time is the NHC press conference?

[steveegg]

I think it's the NHC that wrote off Algore.

5 pm advisories are starting to come out. Hurricane watches up from Longboat Key on the west coast of Florida south through the southern tip of Florida and back up the east coast to Titusville.

NHC news conference at 5 pm per Fox.

[nwctwx]

The trough digging into the Gulf will change the pattern for a while at the very least. The jet stream is making it's transition into a wintry state, it will be much harder to get these little waves to march through the Caribbean and into the GOM.

[NautiNurse]

ok what? For one who lives well outside of hurricane alley, you read way too much into my review of the preliminary forecast.

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Wilma Advisory Number 30
Statement as of 4:00 PM CDT on October 22, 2005

...Wilma about to emerge off the northeastern coast of Yucatan...
...New watches issued for the Florida Peninsula...

At 5 PM EDT...2100z...a Hurricane Watch has been issued along the
West Coast of Florida from Longboat Key southward...and along the
East Coast of Florida from Titusville southward.

 

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for all of the Florida Keys...
including the Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay.

 
At 5 PM EDT...a tropical storm watch has been issued along the West
Coast of Florida from north of Longboat Key northward to
Steinhatchee river... and along the East Coast of Florida from
north of Titusville northward to Fernandina Beach.

 
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect from San Felipe to Chetumal on
the Yucatan Peninsula...including Cozumel and the nearby islands.

 
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect from
west of San Felipe to celestun.

 
At 5 PM EDT...the government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Warning
for the provinces of Ciudad de la Habana...la Habana...and Pinar
del Rio.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Isle of
Youth.  A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the province of
Matanzas.

 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours.  Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.  A
Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within
the watch area...generally within 36 hours.

 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.  A
tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.

 
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

 
At 4 PM CDT...2100z...the center of Hurricane Wilma was located near
latitude 21.4 north... longitude 87.1 west... about 25 miles... 40
km northwest of Cancun Mexico... or about 405 miles... 650 km...
west-southwest of Key West Florida.

 
Wilma is moving toward the north near 2 mph... 4 km/hr.  A gradual
turn toward the northeast over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico is
expected during the next 24 hours.

 
Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph...160 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Wilma is a category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24
hours...and Wilma could regain category three status during the
next 24 hours.

 
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to  85 miles...140 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 200 miles...325 km.

 
The latest minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA hurricane
hunter aircraft was 957 mb...28.26 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 7 to 11 feet above normal tide
levels... along with large and dangerous battering waves... will
continue near and to the north of the eye along on the northeastern
Yucatan Peninsula.

 
Wilma is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 10
to 20 inches through Sunday across portions of western Cuba and the
Yucatan Peninsula... with isolated maximum storm total amounts
approaching 50 inches.  Rainfall across southern Florida including
the Keys through Tuesday is expected to be 4 to 8 inches... with
isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches possible.

 
Large swells generated by Wilma have propagated well into the
eastern Gulf of Mexico.  These swells will likely affect portions
of the northern Gulf Coast tonight and Sunday.

Isolated tornadoes are possible over the Florida Peninsula and the
Florida Keys during the next couple of days.

 

Repeating the 4 PM CDT position...21.4 N... 87.1 W.  Movement
toward...north near  2 mph.  Maximum sustained
winds...100 mph.  Minimum central pressure... 957 mb.

 
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 7 PM CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 10 PM
CDT.

 
Forecaster Knabb

[NautiNurse]

FNC reporting the Key West airport is closed.

[steveegg]

Max Mayfield up now - will discuss the forecast, intensity and size.