Hurricane Wilma Live Thread (As of 2:30 am EDT, Wilma is a Category 5 with 175-mph winds )

NHC - NOAA ^ | 18 October 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[steveegg]

Morning glock. Sploded is an understatement.

Grannie has some splainin' to do; I blame her soaking JimRob's lawn furniture for this :-)

[Sax]

Yep, my sister-in-law took $90k damage to her home just NE of Orlando from a spawned tornado during Charley. We're over on the East Coast, so we're just cautious watching this one.

Last year we developed & played Fantasy Hurricane Coverage since we were just holed up watching TV in our boarded up house. First we listed out all the eligible words: water, wind, storm, surge, feeder band, hunker, etc. Then we had a draft taking turns and each picking 3 words. Everytime your word is heard while surfing coverage, it's one point. Then set a time limit and away you go. It helped kill some time.

[ElmoMobito]

The experts who try to predict the path of hurricanes are once again doing the Gulf coast a disservice by predicting a strong right turn to hit Florida. Remember, they insisted for the longest that Katrina would take a right turn anf hit the Florida panhandle. Then Rita to hit the Texas-Mexico area. Just do a simple extrapolation and it is heading for the middle of the Gulf coast, not Florida. They have 20 models going in all directions and they seem to pick 5 that somewhat agree and present that as the path and ignore all other models.

[blam]

"Oh yeah, of course, the hurricane magnet inviting Freepers into his lair. hehe."

Ha, ha. I'm still here and haven't as yet had and structures damaged, so...

[Strategerist]

The experts who try to predict the path of hurricanes are once again doing the Gulf coast a disservice by predicting a strong right turn to hit Florida. Remember, they insisted for the longest that Katrina would take a right turn anf hit the Florida panhandle. Then Rita to hit the Texas-Mexico area. Just do a simple extrapolation and it is heading for the middle of the Gulf coast, not Florida. They have 20 models going in all directions and they seem to pick 5 that somewhat agree and present that as the path and ignore all other models.

The above is so heavily riddled with nonsense I'm not even sure where to begin.

[steveegg]

Franklin's early as usual with the 11 am updates -

Hurricane Wilma Advisory Number 17
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on October 19, 2005

...Potentially catastrophic category five Hurricane Wilma continues
west-northwestward...Hurricane Warning issued for a portion of the
Yucatan...

At 11 am EDT...1500z...the government of Mexico has issued a
Hurricane Warning from San Felipe to Tulum on the Yucatan
Peninsula...including Cozumel and nearby islands.

Hurricane conditions are also possible on Swan Island.

 
At 11 am EDT...the government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning from south of Tulum to Chetumal.

At 11 am EDT...the government of Belize has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for Belize from the border with Mexico southward to Belize
City.

 
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the East Coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula from south of Tulum to Punta gruesa.

 
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect in Cuba for the provinces of
Matanzas westward through Pinar del Rio...and for the Isle of
Youth.

 
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Honduras from the
Honduras/Nicaragua border westward to Cabo camaron.

 
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for
the Cayman Islands.

 
All interests in the Florida Keys and the Florida Peninsula should
closely monitor the progress of extremely dangerous Hurricane Wilma.

 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are
possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.

 
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

 
At 11 am EDT...1500z...the center of Hurricane Wilma was located
near latitude 17.4 north... longitude 83.2 west or about 325
miles... 520 km... southeast of Cozumel Mexico.

 
Wilma is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph ...11 km/hr. A
turn toward the northwest is expected during the next 24 hours.

 
Maximum sustained winds are near 175 mph...280 km/hr...with higher
gusts.  Wilma is a potentially catastrophic category five hurricane
on the Saffir-Simpson scale.  Fluctuations in intensity are common
in hurricanes of this intensity...and are likely during the next 24
hours.

 
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to  50 miles... 85 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 160 miles...260 km.

 
Estimated minimum central pressure is  882 mb...26.05 inches.

 
Wilma is expected to produce storm total accumulations of 10 to 15
inches...with local amounts near 25 inches in mountainous terrain
across Cuba through Friday.  Additional rainfall accumulations of 5
to 10 inches...with local amounts of 15 inches...are possible
across the Cayman Islands...Swan Island...and Jamaica through
Thursday.  Storm total accumulations of 4 to 6 inches...with
isolated amounts of 8 to 12 inches...are possible from Honduras
northward to the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico through Thursday.

Repeating the 11 am EDT position...17.4 N... 83.2 W.  Movement
toward...west-northwest near  7 mph.  Maximum sustained
winds...175 mph.  Minimum central pressure... 882 mb.

 
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 2 PM EDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 5 PM EDT.

 
Forecaster Franklin

[NautiNurse]

Just topped off the solar battery bank with water. Most important of all - replenished the cache of chocolate. nonpareils and malted milk balls. Bring on the storm...

[CFC__VRWC]

They have 20 models going in all directions and they seem to pick 5 that somewhat agree and present that as the path and ignore all other models.

Please provide links to all these models that take it in "all different directions."

[neutrality]

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 50 miles...

Well that makes more sense

[steveegg]

The 11 am discussion ought to be interesting. Franklin is punctual as usual with the rest of the updates.

[Strategerist]

The only "model" which isn't very tightly around the track consesus is "XTRP" which isn't a model, so he must amusingly be yet another fan of extrapolated motion.

[SE Mom]

:) I'm going out shortly..my choices are Reese's PB cups (original, thanks- none of these cheap late models) ..malted milk balls YES! Hardboiling some eggs..etc..etc.

We really need to keep alert on this one..and extra prayers to Jeb.

[Sax]

If your staying and have a pool, chlorine supplies disappear too. Last year the chlorine processing plant in Ft. Pierce got squashed. Stock up on chlorine, or granulated shock. If you have no power to run your pump or the A/C in your house, you don't want your cool pool to turn into a bass pond.

[Chanticleer]

I LOVE this idea. Kinda like Hi, Bob! without the beer. How about some other choices?

monster

record

unbelievable

[dawn53]

I just had my son go count the water bottles. I checked the freezer, lots of bread, lots of ice. Checked the cupboard, tuna, pb&j, paper plates, napkins, plastic silverware. Checked the gas can for the generator. We even have a supply of Dove dark chocolate on hand.

And I'm happy to report that my most critical supply...my coffee...is in good supply, LOL.

(BTW, I've switched from the Farberware Perc to a fancy new machine my sister gave my hubby and I for an early Christmas present. It grinds the beans, measures out the water, makes the strength you want, one cup at a time...pure heaven.)

[steveegg]

Well that makes more sense

It does, but the 11 am forecast/advisory still has hurricane-force winds only out to 15 nm. Since we're talking about Franklin, look for one or the other to be "corrected" shortly (and I'd expect the forecast/advisory to be corrected).

We should have a recon flight in there in about 2 1/2 hours to find out what's what.

[rodguy911]

They have kicked out the tourists here in the Keys, probably kick us out tomorrow or so.

[NautiNurse]

I actually had chlorine on the list for errands this afternoon.

Have a dandy little hand crank coffee grinder. However, will likely resort to grinding coffee ahead of the storm, and using the industrial size thermos. If Wilma doesn't make the anticipated turn, I'll be bugging out. Reserved a hotel room in Brandon.

[steveegg]

Good luck.

[Sax]

Yeah it was fun, gotta fight that cabin fever when you're 'hunkering down' and amuse the kids too. For Frances last year, I was on a second floor porch flying a Wal-Mart bag tied to a big spool of string. Must've had it out 75 yards before it broke free.