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Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part III
NHC - NOAA ^ | 21 September 2005 | NHC - NOAA

Posted on 09/21/2005 4:19:11 PM PDT by NautiNurse

click here to read article


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To: Aggie Mama

We have discussed heading to TexasCowboy's place in Rock Island (Colorado County), but we do not know how prone the area is to flooding.


1,161 posted on 09/21/2005 9:26:48 PM PDT by TheMom (My husband and children rock! I am like a rock . . . round and thick.)
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To: Squantos; Lazamataz

Yep.

I am my favorite FReeper, but y'all are on the list!


1,162 posted on 09/21/2005 9:26:55 PM PDT by Eaker (My Wife Rocks! - I will never take Dix off of my ping list as I have been asked to do.)
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To: raygun
Er, that was a different plane that found the 161-knot wind (AF300 to be exact).
1,163 posted on 09/21/2005 9:27:19 PM PDT by steveegg ($3.00 a gallon is the price you pay for ANWR! Start drilling or stop whining! - HT Falcon4.0)
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To: Eaker

The wedding is June 2006. Right now I'm just a fiancee.


1,164 posted on 09/21/2005 9:27:26 PM PDT by Petronski (I love Cyborg!)
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To: BurbankKarl

That is insane. This is a full-on worst case scenario and they're saying "we're not leaving?"


1,165 posted on 09/21/2005 9:27:54 PM PDT by lainie
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To: conservative in nyc

everything to the right of 75 is going to flood!


1,166 posted on 09/21/2005 9:28:38 PM PDT by BurbankKarl
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To: Eaker
I am my favorite FReeper....

Whoooooooooooo boy.

1,167 posted on 09/21/2005 9:28:51 PM PDT by Brad’s Gramma (Lord, we need a Logan miracle for Simcha7 and Cowboy. Please.)
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To: lainie

The Mayor of Galveston said he was going to ride it out in the San Luis Resort.

1,168 posted on 09/21/2005 9:29:43 PM PDT by BurbankKarl
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To: Brad's Gramma
Hey! I know! Drive to CA. We'll all head up & surprise TC! :)

Woman, you are a genuine genius!!!

1,169 posted on 09/21/2005 9:30:20 PM PDT by TheMom (My husband and children rock! I am like a rock . . . round and thick.)
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To: NautiNurse

WSJ.com - Storm News Tracker [free access]
http://online.wsj.com/public/article/0,,SB112731385505947351-BJ0nkKk5ENd7mMG3PLMk1lEXK88_20060921,00.html?mod=blogs

Latest entry:
11:20 p.m.: Reuters reports that NASA prepared to evacuate its Johnson Space Center in Houston and turn over control of the International Space Station to its Russian partners.


1,170 posted on 09/21/2005 9:30:21 PM PDT by gpapa (Boost FR Traffic! Make FR your home page!)
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To: conservative in nyc

Thanks for the map and the clarification.

Bet Jim won't still be there tomorrow night!


1,171 posted on 09/21/2005 9:30:29 PM PDT by Palladin (America! America! God shed His grace on Thee.)
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To: lainie

They are frozen with shock....the women were crying because they cant find their husbands since the cell phones a jammed.

I guess no one saw that Mississippi footage in Galveston.


1,172 posted on 09/21/2005 9:31:04 PM PDT by BurbankKarl
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To: Daniel Ramsey
These questions keep coming up. Here's the NHC's answer (the links won't work in my post):

Subject: C5a) Why don't we try to destroy tropical cyclones by seeding them with silver iodide:
Actually for a couple decades NOAA and its predecessor tried to weaken hurricanes by dropping silver iodide - a substance that serves as a effective ice nuclei - into the rainbands of the storms. The STORMFURY project , as it was called, proposed that the silver iodide would enhance the thunderstorms of the rainband by causing the supercooled water to freeze, thus liberating the latent heat of fusion and helping the rainband to grow at the expense of the eyewall. With a weakened convergence to the eyewall, the strong inner core winds would also weaken quite a bit. Neat idea, but it, in the end, had a fatal flaw: there just isn't much supercooled water available in hurricane convection - the buoyancy is fairly small and the updrafts correspondingly small compared to the type one would observe in mid-latitude continental super or multicells. The few times that they did seed and saw a reduction in intensity was undoubtedly due to what is now called "concentric eyewall cycles".

concentric eyewalls
Willoughby et al.(1985)

Concentric eyewall cycles naturally occur in intense tropical cyclones (wind > 50 m/s [100 kt, 115 mph]). As tropical cyclones reach this threshold of intensity, they usually - but not always - have an eyewall and radius of maximum winds that contracts to a very small size, around 10 to 25 km [5 to 15 mi]. At this point, some of the outer rainbands may organize into an outer ring of thunderstorms that slowly moves inward and robs the inner eyewall of its needed moisture and momentum. During this phase, the tropical cyclone is weakening (i.e. the maximum winds die off a bit and the central pressure goes up). Eventually the outer eyewall replaces the inner one completely and the storm can be the same intensity as it was previously or, in some cases, even stronger. A concentric eyewall cycle occurred in Hurricane Andrew (1992) before landfall near Miami: a strong intensity was reached, an outer eyewall formed, this contracted in concert with a pronounced weakening of the storm, and as the outer eyewall completely replaced the original one the hurricane reintensified.

Thus nature accomplishes what NOAA had hoped to do artificially. No wonder that the first few experiments were thought to be successes. To learn about the STORMFURY project read Willoughby et al. (1985). To learn more about concentric eyewall cycles, read Willoughby et al. (1982) and Willoughby (1990).


1,173 posted on 09/21/2005 9:31:09 PM PDT by AntiGuv (™)
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To: eastforker
will be in touch as soon as possible after the storm passes.

Ditto!

1,174 posted on 09/21/2005 9:31:34 PM PDT by TheMom (My husband and children rock! I am like a rock . . . round and thick.)
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To: Petronski; cyborg; TheMom
The wedding is June 2006. Right now I'm just a fiancee.

So she is still on the market!

Whooo - Hoo don't tell TheMom!

1,175 posted on 09/21/2005 9:31:36 PM PDT by Eaker (My Wife Rocks! - I will never take Dix off of my ping list as I have been asked to do.)
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To: Ninian Dryhope

>We'll probably be heading out to OKC on Friday night.

Welcome! The kindest folks in the world live here, I'm convinced! I love living here!


1,176 posted on 09/21/2005 9:31:38 PM PDT by 2Jedismom (Near Tulsa, Oklahoma)
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To: Petronski

Yep, that's a sure ominous sign.


1,177 posted on 09/21/2005 9:31:50 PM PDT by lainie
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To: Dog Gone

Been away awhile... very troubling storm.

I feel like I'm watching a slow motion nightmare again. I can't believe what we see out there. Stay away from the water.


1,178 posted on 09/21/2005 9:32:14 PM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)
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To: Torie

So, they're basically going back to the total heat content of the water (and a dubious forecast of some dry air). That may be true! Perhaps the water is shallower enough to negate the increased temps. Or, perhaps the NOAA map is misleading. We'll see.


1,179 posted on 09/21/2005 9:33:32 PM PDT by AntiGuv (™)
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To: RoseyT
Texas began recalling everyone including our National Guard troops, Texas Task Force One, and utility crews yesterday.
1,180 posted on 09/21/2005 9:33:39 PM PDT by COEXERJ145 (Cindy Sheehan, Pat Buchanan, John Conyers, and David Duke Are Just Different Sides of the Same Coin.)
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