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Experts: Housing Bubble Deflating
The Olympian ^ | 9/8/2005 | Martin Crutsinger

Posted on 09/08/2005 1:10:12 PM PDT by ex-Texan

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To: Steven W.
Apparently, you have not been reading the same business news sources that I have. Katrina will be more devastating for the economy than 9-11. Source There will not be major home rebuilding effort in New Orleans. The problem is flood insurance. Without it, most people are SOL.

It will be months and months before the levees have been hardened and the city is safe to return to. It will be weeks and weeks before insurance adjusters are able to inspect houses that are still under water. Knowing the insurance industry as I do, most of this 'damage assessment' will be wasted energy. The box being checked the most on claim forms is labeled "deny this claim." Flood insurance is almost impossible to purchase in that region of the country.

Frankly, if I had owned a house in N.O., I would be thinking seriously about moving. The city just lost about 400,000 of its poorest residents. Most of them will not be returning either. What will the demographics of Jefferson Parrish look like in two years? It's anybody's guess.

21 posted on 09/08/2005 1:48:13 PM PDT by ex-Texan (Mathew 7:1 through 6)
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To: diamond6

I've got the same problem. My family, friends, and a job I love are all in San Diego so I have no desire to leave. I make a decent salary but I can't afford anything other than a dinky apartment conversion.


22 posted on 09/08/2005 1:48:44 PM PDT by Serb5150 (www.illmitch.com)
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To: kjam22; Steven W.

See my post # 21.


23 posted on 09/08/2005 1:49:58 PM PDT by ex-Texan (Mathew 7:1 through 6)
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To: Serb5150

I can see why you love it there, it's beautiful.... and the air quality is great. Have you considered looking for a fixer-upper? Thats what we're trying to do.


24 posted on 09/08/2005 1:53:26 PM PDT by diamond6 (Everyone who is for abortion has already been born. Ronald Reagan)
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To: Grampa Dave

SSSHHHHHH. Don't tell anybody. They might start buyin'.


25 posted on 09/08/2005 1:55:38 PM PDT by BOBTHENAILER (One by one, in small groups or in whole armies, we don't care how we do it, but we're gonna getcha)
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To: ex-Texan

It would be interesting to learn what the impact of Katrian is on this Housing Bubble ...


26 posted on 09/08/2005 1:56:51 PM PDT by sono
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To: ex-Texan; Grampa Dave; SierraWasp
The city just lost about 400,000 of its poorest residents. Most of them will not be returning either.

Sweet, Sen. Mary just lost 400.000 votes.

27 posted on 09/08/2005 2:00:42 PM PDT by BOBTHENAILER (One by one, in small groups or in whole armies, we don't care how we do it, but we're gonna getcha)
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To: ex-Texan

Sell Mortimer!!


28 posted on 09/08/2005 2:03:31 PM PDT by week 71
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To: diamond6
I've thought about that as well, but judging from all the friendly advice I'm getting it appears that after the time/money I'd have to put in it, I'm better off buying something that doesn't need a lot of work done.

I think I might be playing the waiting game for awhile. Fun!

29 posted on 09/08/2005 2:03:51 PM PDT by Serb5150 (www.illmitch.com)
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To: ex-Texan

The housing may not be rebuilt in NO, but people will need homes elsewhere, whether they are new, old, or mobile homes- they will need to live somewhere.


30 posted on 09/08/2005 2:06:44 PM PDT by conservative cat
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To: Serb5150

So are you Ill Mitch? I've already seen that site through word of mouth. I think it's totally hilarious.


31 posted on 09/08/2005 2:08:20 PM PDT by PianoMan (and now back to practicing)
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To: conservative cat

If their claims are denied, and they are out of work, please tell me how these people will be able to purchase another home. How many people have that much cash laying around?


32 posted on 09/08/2005 2:10:20 PM PDT by ex-Texan (Mathew 7:1 through 6)
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To: PianoMan
I wish I were ILL Mitch, but sadly I am not. I'm just a fan of his fast and danger style.
Are you the Piano Man I've been hearing about in the news? ;)
33 posted on 09/08/2005 2:11:47 PM PDT by Serb5150 (www.illmitch.com)
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To: ex-Texan

Doesn't FEMA provide loans/assistance when insurance doesn't pay (and I agree, those that are even insured will have their claims DENIED the vast majority of the time)? I am sure skilled workers will be finding jobs within a reasonable amount of time.


34 posted on 09/08/2005 2:13:30 PM PDT by conservative cat
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To: Steven W.

We know some folks from Biloxi who evacuated and the husband came back to check on the house. Their house had some damage, but nothing major (broken windows, a few shingles gone). Anyway, a neighbor who's house was totally destroyed, offered them cash for their house upon hearing that they planned to move away ASAP. They closed the deal immediately. I think we will see a lot of this. Houses that survived that storm with minimal damage will sell quickly. And certainly there will be a housing boom in other southern states (away from the coast of course).


35 posted on 09/08/2005 2:18:29 PM PDT by Muzzle_em (I'm an island awash in a sea of stupidity)
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To: conservative cat
I do not know anything about FEMA but I believe most people will be SOL. I've got another issue to raise. Sorry about that, but here it is: Suppose Maggie and Tom X bought a home in New Orleans last year. They took out an ARM loan. The house was insured for 100% of its value. But try as they might, Tom and Susan were not able to qualify for flood insurance. Now their home has been destroyed by the flood when the levee broke and neither of them has a job. Will they still be obliged to pay off their $ 80,000 home loan? Or, can they declare bankruptcy and just walk away?

I believe the answer is Tom and Susan are SOL. They will still have to repay the loan. I do not have answer for a standard 30 year loan in these circumstances. But I believe in good faith that the answer is the same.

But, if I am not correct, please forgive me.

36 posted on 09/08/2005 2:34:04 PM PDT by ex-Texan (Mathew 7:1 through 6)
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To: sono
It would be interesting to learn what the impact of Katrian is on this Housing Bubble ...

I suspect inland housing will increase in value.
37 posted on 09/08/2005 2:41:03 PM PDT by Nachoman
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To: BOBTHENAILER

The rats have lost their last blue state in the South.


38 posted on 09/08/2005 2:41:33 PM PDT by Grampa Dave (Jamie Gorelick is responsible for more dead Americans(9-11) than those killed in Iraq.)
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To: ex-Texan

I don't see why they can't declare bankruptcy. (Although I don't know how much has changed with the new rules.) They can let the bank foreclose on the property and then declare BK after the bank comes after them for the remainder OR they can just go ahead and declare BK ahead of time and save the foreclosure hassle. (With bankruptcy, you usually aren't allowed to have more than X in equity in your home, which wouldn't be the case in this situation.)

If they are unemployed with no real property, what else are they but bankrupt. After BK, they can get an almost normal loan rate after 2 years (it will stay on credit for longer but banks like 2 years to pass.)

Despite all we hear on the news, the middle/working class are the true victims. The welfare class will continue as usual and the rich can afford to get on with life.


39 posted on 09/08/2005 2:41:54 PM PDT by conservative cat
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To: stopem

I just turned Jeff Katz's radio show off. It is fatiguing!


40 posted on 09/08/2005 2:45:30 PM PDT by Grampa Dave (Jamie Gorelick is responsible for more dead Americans(9-11) than those killed in Iraq.)
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