Skip to comments.
The China Bubble: part one
Macleans(Canada) ^
| Aug. 15, 2005
| Andrea Mandel-Campbell
Posted on 08/19/2005 9:02:46 AM PDT by headsonpikes
click here to read article
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-20, 21-26 next last
In the West, we take for granted the infrastructure of a mature capitalist society. We expect the banks, the utility companies, and other actors to hold up their end, so to speak.
Stepping down from the economic heights, in China there is no equivalent of say, a Dun & Bradstreet to inform businesses of the credit-worthiness of customers and suppliers. A well-connected little Canadian/Chinese company is filling the breach.
http://www.yangtzetelecom.com/s/CorporateNews.asp?ReportID=109815&_Type=&_Title=Yangtze-Telecom-provides-update-on-Credit-Management-System
To: headsonpikes
If many manufacturers went to China to make a buck and support the communist system, they might be for a harsh awakening, just like Lenin's NEP back in Soviet "paradise". Time to pull back and move to more stable and promising pastures like Eastern Eu.
To: headsonpikes
Potentially bad for us, definitely bad for China.
One can only hope.
3
posted on
08/19/2005 9:11:19 AM PDT
by
snowrip
(Liberal? YOU HAVE NO RATIONAL ARGUMENT. Actually, you lack even a legitimate excuse.)
To: Leo Carpathian
This sounds like good news to me. A shaky China cannot spend so much on the military. Russia found out that a world power needs cash.
4
posted on
08/19/2005 9:11:22 AM PDT
by
sine_nomine
(Protect the weakest of the weak - the unborn babies.)
To: headsonpikes
Housing bubble, China bubble, I am going to loose track!
5
posted on
08/19/2005 9:17:27 AM PDT
by
redgolum
("God is dead" -- Nietzsche. "Nietzsche is dead" -- God.)
To: headsonpikes
What no one in the media seems to want to mention is that most of the "Rising Sun" agitprop -for that is what it truly was - occurred during the Administrations of Reagan and Bush Senior.
Notice that soon after Clinton came to power the reporting here changed.
Curious thing about that.
To: snowrip
China's troubles may be the reason so many US investors are turning to India..
7
posted on
08/19/2005 9:33:39 AM PDT
by
Drammach
(Freedom; not just a job, it's an adventure..)
To: headsonpikes
Great post; the whole read was well worth the time. if indeed this is the case, we could be looking at a WORLD economic collapse with all then intertwined financial investments in the Chinese economy.
One other thing, though - I see the spending issues here in the States to be as detrimental as the spending issues in China. Only the level of graft is different...
8
posted on
08/19/2005 9:43:23 AM PDT
by
Amalie
(FREEDOM had NEVER been another word for nothing left to lose...)
To: headsonpikes
I have written about this, as a short-term problem
here and as a long-term problem
here. China appears to be dramatically overbuilt now, primarily because of so much politically motivated economic activity and so much corruption, which masks a lot of mistakes until the bill comes due. I think in the long-term the economic ascendance of China is a fact, with social stability the primary potential obstacle. Save for the corruption (which is not a trivial problem), China to me looks economically similar to Japan, Taiwan, Korea and other Asian miracle countries in years past. If you believe that modernization depends on cultural compatibility with it, China is in good shape in ways they weren't in centuries past.
9
posted on
08/19/2005 9:53:27 AM PDT
by
untenured
(http://futureuncertain.blogspot.com)
To: untenured
The many businessmen I know who commute from Canada to China are very optimistic about prospects there.
The Chinese will survive the upcoming collapse of socialist institutions quite well, imo, provided that the new civil society entities they are creating mature sufficiently prior to the approaching, and unavoidable state banking crisis.
10
posted on
08/19/2005 10:06:20 AM PDT
by
headsonpikes
(The Liberal Party of Canada are not b*stards - b*stards have mothers!)
To: Amalie
I think that a "world economic collapse" because of China is extremely unlikely. The underlying real economy in the US and Europe is strong and mature. Most likely, the financial turmoil would settle quickly, with Chinese dollar reserves being expended to buy their way out of trouble, bringing the dollar down and boosting US exports. If the US economy got into trouble at the same time, it would not be due to China but to the housing bubble collapsing.
To: Amalie
Well, if the Chinese economy crashed, and the global ecomy took a dive with it, at least demand for oil might decrease.
Which reminds of the cartoon where the guy who was headed out the door to go to work, comes back in and says to his wife "Good news, honey, I won't have to commute to work today. The world is ending."
12
posted on
08/19/2005 11:04:55 AM PDT
by
Montfort
(Check out The Figurehead, by Thomas Larus at lulu.com. Montfort is the protagonist.)
To: headsonpikes
The next collapse of the Chinese economy won't have nearly the impact of 9-11. The US economy lost between $6-8 trillion, depending on who's estimate you use.
The entire Chinese economy isn't worth this much.
To: <1/1,000,000th%
Not sure I agree with a lot of what I see on this thread. Just IMHO like everyone elses I guess ;)
Yeah, I can see China falling apart. The LAST people in the world who know how to run a capitalist, free-market economy are a bunch of elderly communists.
But business people tend to be gun-shy. They may have their eyes blinded by $$$ signs right now, but it won't take a whole lot to wipe those out and cause all those dollars to be withdrawn from China and put in the safest place in the known universe. The US economy.
Europe, as we know, has MANY problems and practically nothing for growth prospects. Japan has its own problems and history that will make investors stay away for a long time yet. Russia's a basket case. Greater Arabia ditto. India maybe I suppose, but not if its a world-wide phenom.
Where else is there to put money into? Only the US.
If China falls apart, every one of these investors is going to get burned and start repeating to themselves at LEAST once a minute, "Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me." They'll come back to the US, ESPECIALLY if as some on this thread note, this becomes a world-wide problem.
14
posted on
08/19/2005 12:00:42 PM PDT
by
America's Resolve
(Liberal Democrats are liars, cheats and thieves with no morals, scruples, ethics or honor!)
To: Rockingham
"I think that a "world economic collapse" because of China is extremely unlikely. The underlying real economy in the US and Europe is strong and mature. Most likely, the financial turmoil would settle quickly, with Chinese dollar reserves being expended to buy their way out of trouble, bringing the dollar down and boosting US exports. If the US economy got into trouble at the same time, it would not be due to China but to the housing bubble collapsing."
Well put and agreed. The housing bubble coupled with outrageous energy could be the biggest recession of the last 50 years or even a depression. The ripple effects from our potential deep recession in the US would cause global recession. But China causing world financial collapse? I dont buy it either.
To: America's Resolve
We've been through this a couple of times. We tried to expand into China back in the '70's, the Chinese ended up appropriating everything; buildings, equipment, etc.
Same deal again in the '90's.
It'll happen again. As people accumulate capital, the government will have no choice but to appropriate their assets and probably disappear them. US corporate assets will be appropriated to clean up the mess. It'll end up being another tax write-off and waste of time.
To: untenured
17
posted on
08/19/2005 3:08:29 PM PDT
by
Pagey
(Whether Hillary Clintons' attacks on America are a success or a failure depends upon YOU TOO!)
To: headsonpikes
To: quantfive
Thanks. I have come to recognize a standard editorial formula for such stories: lay out a financial doomsday scenario and then get experts to comment on whether it "could" happen. There are always experts available who will play along, flattered by press attention or thinking publicity useful to their careers.
String together several apocalyptic comments and our prosperity can be made to seem fragile and endangered by adverse changes in most anything: Shanghai port loadings; reserve Saudi oil capacity; LIBOR schedules; Japanese patent filings; drought in the Sahara; and so on.
Uhhh, what about the American economy? What about domestic business conditions, the money supply, and the burdens of taxes, regulation, and politically driven misinvestment and financial bubbles? Dull, dull, dull. A foreign scare makes for better reading does it not?
To: snowrip
on the plus side oil would be $20 again
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-20, 21-26 next last
Disclaimer:
Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual
posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its
management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the
exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson