Moscow's Strategy

J R Nyquist.com ^ | May 2005 | Peter Cibulka

[BeHoldAPaleHorse]

"We each hold our own opinions regarding whether or not victory is meaningful in a war of mass destruction. Interestingly, some of the most obvious "non-MAD" views on this topic have been written by non Western individuals."

And those individuals always make two assumptions:

(a) their side will make no mistakes, and
(b) the other side will do what their side wishes them to do.

Pretty stupid way to plan a war, if you ask me. (They never do ask me, though.)

Unless you've actually had bullets whizzing past you, fired by people intent on killing you, you really just don't "get" war in any meaningful sense.

I've never seen any of these idiots discuss what to do if their proposed war plan goes sour in the execution.

[jb6]

Not a proven, demonstrated fact.

Well that "theory" held out for 30 years of the Cold War and is also holding out in Pakistan/India even when have a hot fight on their borders.

[jb6]

Conversely, no one's ever shown me a convincing theory of victory for a nuclear war.

For some reason Dr. Strangelove comes to mind and the Cave Race.

[GarySpFc]

Huh? I simply stated that it was foolish and naive to assume that *all* "hackers" were lone actors. That is not seeing a bogeyman under every (or any) rock. Tell me this - do you think that countries like the US, UK and Japan DO NOT have our own "hackers" working for our militaries and intelligence orgs? That's a matter of public record. So, why WOULDN'T Russia also have them?

Yes, and you are master of the obvious. I believe most of major countries have hackers in their employ. However, to make the assumption the majority do so with evil intent is wrong, China is the exception. You remind me of a 16 year old who has read one too many spy novels.

[BeHoldAPaleHorse]

"For some reason Dr. Strangelove comes to mind and the Cave Race."

"Mister President, we must avoid a mineshaft gap!"

The funniest thing about Dr. Strangelove was that Dr. Strangelove's "nuclear strategy" dialogue was lifted verbatim from Herman Kahn's "On Thermonuclear War" and various RAND studies.

[GOP_1900AD]

Let me ask you an honest question. Why do you invest so much energy in trying to belittle me? Answer this question.

[GOP_1900AD]

But it is, nonetheless a theory. No one really knows exactly what would happen in an WMD war. It is the fear of the unknown, not actual experience with such a war, that drives the present behavior.

[BeHoldAPaleHorse]

"But it is, nonetheless a theory. No one really knows exactly what would happen in an WMD war."

Which, in turn, suggests that MAD does a pretty damn good job of making such a war less likely.

[jb6]

Really??? Wow. That's rather scary.

[GarySpFc]

Let me ask you an honest question. Why do you invest so much energy in trying to belittle me? Answer this question.

I have been on Free Republic for some time. Last November or December I noticed the attacks against Russia in the Chechen articles posted. I still have access to some intel from my contacts in the Special Ops. community, and I knew what was being posted was either wrong or outright lies. I am also married to a Russian lady, and we maintain homes in Kansas City and Volgograd. My wife's nephew has been in the army for 18 years as a member of the Spetsnaz. The Russian government is not perfect, but it is hardly the monster it out to be by the Russophobes. I find it interesting that almost all of you have either never been to Russia or not since the fall of the Iron Curtain. I can sum all of the above up by saying I hear ignorance talking.

[RussianBoor]

Last November or December I noticed the attacks against Russia

Here is an explanation of these attacks.

Spinning Khodorkovsky

In order to win positive media internationally, Khodorkovsky brought in a savvy public relations executive ... Margery Kraus, president and chief executive of APCO Worldwide, a Washington subsidiary of Grey Advertising, one of the biggest advertising agencies in the world...With the advice of APCO, Yukos created the Open Russia Foundation in London in 2001 with a paltry $15 million "to build cooperation between Russia and the West." Henry Kissinger joined the board of the foundation and traveled to Moscow when the U.S. Agency for International Development signed on to a joint project with the foundation to promote "Russian democracy". (Also present at this event was George Bush Senior.) ... The foundation also gave $100,000 to the National Book Festival, a favorite charity of Laura Bush, the wife of President George Bush. APCO also launched a series of advertisements in March 2005 on the international and editorial pages of the New York Times website. ...One edition included an attack on the Khodorkovsky prosecution co-authored by Stuart Eizenstat (incidentally a member of APCO's international advisory board) and Jonathan Winer - both former Clinton State Department officials.

In addition to the media campaign, Khodorkovsky also pumped money into powerful and influential investment funds such as the Carlyle Group, run by Frank Carlucci, Secretary of Defense for President Ronald Reagan and a Deputy Director of the CIA during the Carter Administration.

http://www.corpwatch.org/print_article.php?&id=12236

This is just one citation I could google out right away. It is basically a common knowledge that Khodorkovsky, Berezovskiy and their likes spend millions of dollars every month for negative PR campaign against Russia and Mr. Putin personally. Lots of efforts are put in by Poland and Baltic states because good relations between Russia and the West will sink them into oblivion. So these attacks are little wonder.

[GOP_1900AD]

Yes, you have shared all of this with me before.

You know, I could have easily turned out to be a blind Russophile myself. I had a hard core Tsarist grandfather (God rest his soul) who was mentored by Russian army officers. I have many Russian friends. I have Russian art at home. I listen to Russian music. I eat Russian food reasonably often. Although I have yet to set foot in Russia proper, I certainly have set foot in places once within her borders (and I'm not referring to Alaska!). I have done business in Eastern Europe and Northeast Asia. I do business remotely (and have done for 15 years) in Russia. Some of my family members have been to Russia many times. I have distant relatives still there.

My lines of inquiry and analysis rise above all of that.

[GOP_1900AD]

It was an interesting psy op back when only a few countries had nukes. With proliferation, nukes will eventually be used. Once the rubicon has been crossed, MAD will become a historical oddity.

[GOP_1900AD]

So you think that all criticism of Russia, especially here at FR, is due to some PR schlockmeister? Do you honestly believe that?

[GarySpFc]

You have a theoretical knowledge of Russia, nothing more.

[GOP_1900AD]

How can you say that? I DO BUSINESS with Russia! Look just because I didn't marry a Russian like you, does not mean I don't have an equally valid perspective as you. In fact, I would say that because my own perspective is a combination of family ancestry and contemporary business, my perspective on Russia may not be as colored by emotions as yours is. I - out of necessity - must take a rather cold and detached view. It's business after all ...

[BeHoldAPaleHorse]

"How can you say that? I DO BUSINESS with Russia!"

Wait a minute.

You're saying that Russia is still communist, and that doing business with them borders on treason...and you're doing business with them.

OK, pal, you have a S**TLOAD of explaining to do. Get started. NOW.

[GOP_1900AD]

Where did I say they were Communist?

Am I concerned about the situation there? Absolutely!

[GOP_1900AD]

I am very familiar with those treaties.

Something interesting about the INF Treaty. China never signed it. So, the PRC has missiles (and TELs) banned in Russia and the US. With the 7/16/2001 Treaty, the door has been opened for vast degrees of military cooperation. So, imagine one day, Bout's planes land in the PRC, TELs with DF-21s roll on, and the planes then land in Western Russia. Just a thought ..

[GOP_1900AD]

It is an interesting environment. There appears to be lots of Mafiya and hacker groups using it. If the FSB wanted to go after them it would be a cake walk. But they don't ...