Posted on 01/30/2005 2:03:30 AM PST by mista science
Part 1. Breaking the Hockey Stick
The Hockey Stick. john-daly.com
Long article. Scroll down about 1/5 of the way if you've never seen the Hockey Stick (Fig.4).
I'm a novice, but in laymen's terms, the Hockey Stick is the result of combining two different methodologies of data collection into one conclusion? Like determining the Superbowl winner by using "yards gained" in the 1st half and "points scored" in the 2nd?
How did that ever make it past a peer-review?
PCA analysis of tree ring data ... wow.
Some great info in those links. Thanks for posting this.
Great articles. Thanks for the posts. The first publicity I saw about the Canadians work was in MIT's Technology Review. Was this an independent report or one based on these articles, if you know?
Very interesting.
Fertiliser Effect of CO2 shenanigans.
I dont follow this too closely, but it looks like you two do. Can I ask, are you familiar with any good studies that question if long term CO2 increases are even possible? I heard of an experiment 5 years ago that showed substantially greater plant growth with minimally raised CO2 levels.
So wouldnt oxygen be created that brings CO2 levels back down again? Do you think that this balance is adequately addressed in global warming/climate change models?
" McIntyre & McKitrick found that the Mann et al. methodology included a data pre-processing step, one which was not reported in the original study, that essentially guaranteed that a hockey stick curve would result from their analysis. They demonstrated this by applying the same methodology to many synthetic temperature records that were constructed with random noise. In almost every case, a hockey stick curve resulted. "
Not the oxygen, the plants. Plants cause oxygen to disappear.
Are you sure that plant decay depletes exactly 100% of the oxygen that they produce in their life? Otherwise, wouldnt the plant build up excess CO2 from volcanoes and animals?
Also, wouldnt that vary greatly between and the plants, species, life and environment?
"The claim of unprecedented warmth and the hockey stick shape appear to hinge on the treatment of one species of tree, the bristlecone pine, from North America in the 1400's. Further statistical tests showed that this critical signal in the early 15th century lacked statistical significance. This suggests that the results of Mann et al. were simply a statistical fluke, which greatly exaggerated a characteristic of the bristlecone pines, which may or may not be related to global temperatures."
In a controlled study or experiment, you must eliminate variables that are not statistically significant, or that do not vary in proportion to the factor being studied.
In this case, it is not known whether the characteristic shown to be variable in bristlecones is directly related to temperature.
There is less of a correlation to CO2, since the first variable might be independent of temperature. Thus, the whole study is flawed, because you have neither ties to CO2 or temperature.
I recall reading an article concerning this point..
Locale was East coast, ( Wash, Atlanta, Richmond ? ) and the complaint was "that oxygen".
It was Ozone...
Ozone created at ground level is a pollutant..
It readily combines with.. everything.. especially exhaust fumes from industry, vehicles, etc..
The people in the area wanted to cut down the forest..
You just can't win..
I don't know how much of the CO2 is taken up by plants nor do I know what percentage of CO2 produced by rot is used.
There are other mechanisms at work. I read somewhere that the ocean takes up CO2 and turns it into CaCO3.
I am a biologist, and have specialized in invertebrates. So I am no expert on this stuff. I just wanted to confirm your thought that there is a cycle at work that the wackos ignore.
Also, too high an O2 content in the atmosphere would kill most live on Earth.
Oxygen is O2. Ozone is O3. Ozone oxidizes almost everything. It does not last long in the free state.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.