Posted on 11/03/2004 9:25:29 AM PST by finnman69
http://www.nypost.com/news/nationalnews/33357.htm
SWERVY SURVEYS
November 4, 2004 -- The stunning results of the presidential race have left most professional pollsters beaming with pride about getting it right — but a few were wiping egg from their faces and offering mea culpas.
Of 10 major polling institutes and news networks that surveyed voters through Monday night, seven showed President Bush on top in their last surveys before votes were cast — although none nailed down his precise margin of victory.
Three polls came close to capturing the exact popular vote of 51.1 percent for Bush and 47.7 percent for Sen. John Kerry.
The Rasmussen polling outfit had it 50.2 percent for Bush and 48 percent for Kerry; TIPP had Bush grabbing 50.1 percent and Kerry with 48 percent; and Battleground had it 50 to 46 in favor of Bush.
"You can't expect in a close race like this to be able to detect a winner with precision, although some pollsters will claim that they did," said University of Michigan election-poll expert Michael Traugott.
"What you can expect is for them to tell you a race is too close to call, and that's what they did."
All of the final polls were within the margin of error. But none of the pollsters, even those who showed Kerry ahead, went as far as Zogby International did in predicting a runaway victory for Kerry.
In a last-ditch effort for bragging rights, John Zogby called the election for Kerry at 5 p.m. before polls closed on Election Day, announcing on his Web site that the Demo- cratic nominee would win 311 electoral votes.
That call even went against Zogby's final poll, which showed Bush narrowly winning the popular vote — and left the pollster with his tail between his legs.
"I thought we captured a trend, but apparently that result didn't materialize," Zogby wrote on his Web site yesterday.
Most final polls proved accurate even in the key battleground states of Ohio and Florida, both won by Bush.
Only Gallup showed a Kerry victory in both states, although several surveys had the Democrat winning in Florida.
On another front, yesterday's exit polls were way off the mark, a poor showing for the new organization that replaced the exit-poll company from 2000, Voter News Services, after the debacle of four years ago.
The National Election Pool issued a statement blaming the misleading projections on leaks to overeager Internet news hounds.
"We were disappointed that information from the early waves of the exit polling found its way on to the Internet," the statement said. "Information that is contained in the early waves is a preliminary snapshot and can often be unreliable."
http://www.nypost.com/news/nationalnews/33357.htm
SWERVY SURVEYS
November 4, 2004 -- The stunning results of the presidential race have left most professional pollsters beaming with pride about getting it right — but a few were wiping egg from their faces and offering mea culpas.
Of 10 major polling institutes and news networks that surveyed voters through Monday night, seven showed President Bush on top in their last surveys before votes were cast — although none nailed down his precise margin of victory.
Three polls came close to capturing the exact popular vote of 51.1 percent for Bush and 47.7 percent for Sen. John Kerry.
The Rasmussen polling outfit had it 50.2 percent for Bush and 48 percent for Kerry; TIPP had Bush grabbing 50.1 percent and Kerry with 48 percent; and Battleground had it 50 to 46 in favor of Bush.
"You can't expect in a close race like this to be able to detect a winner with precision, although some pollsters will claim that they did," said University of Michigan election-poll expert Michael Traugott.
"What you can expect is for them to tell you a race is too close to call, and that's what they did."
All of the final polls were within the margin of error. But none of the pollsters, even those who showed Kerry ahead, went as far as Zogby International did in predicting a runaway victory for Kerry.
In a last-ditch effort for bragging rights, John Zogby called the election for Kerry at 5 p.m. before polls closed on Election Day, announcing on his Web site that the Demo- cratic nominee would win 311 electoral votes.
That call even went against Zogby's final poll, which showed Bush narrowly winning the popular vote — and left the pollster with his tail between his legs.
"I thought we captured a trend, but apparently that result didn't materialize," Zogby wrote on his Web site yesterday.
Most final polls proved accurate even in the key battleground states of Ohio and Florida, both won by Bush.
Only Gallup showed a Kerry victory in both states, although several surveys had the Democrat winning in Florida.
On another front, yesterday's exit polls were way off the mark, a poor showing for the new organization that replaced the exit-poll company from 2000, Voter News Services, after the debacle of four years ago.
The National Election Pool issued a statement blaming the misleading projections on leaks to overeager Internet news hounds.
"We were disappointed that information from the early waves of the exit polling found its way on to the Internet," the statement said. "Information that is contained in the early waves is a preliminary snapshot and can often be unreliable."
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