Posted on 10/31/2004 5:15:03 PM PST by Cableguy
Ha! 49 – 49 huh? This sounds pretty much like the usual manipulation by the media to motivate Kerry supporters.
JOhn KErry will be crushed on Tuesday. The MSM keeps pulling for their fellow traitor. JOhn KErry = Mondale II
Gallup is not excluding likely voters, they are excluding early voters.
"Okay look. What happened to everybody's theory of wait until the last weekend..."
Whoever said that didn't know what they're talking about. The one to watch would be the last complete weekday polls. Anything conducted on the weekend and not normalized will be skewed - for some pollsters, intentionally skewed.
Today is just two points. On a weekend where republicans usually lose anywhere from 3-5 points. It's a proven pattern. Add 3-5 points to the two point lead. Feel better?
Republicans are not breaking their patterns because it's the weekend before the election. They are still taking kids to soccer practice, watching the highschool football game friday night, fixing the house on saturday and sunday, etc,etc, etc.
It's a trend that can obviously be seen by looking at the period when a pollster polled on the weekend between two weekday polls. To think this weekend is the exception to the pattern for some magical reason has no basis in logic.
"That is not a very good lead for an incumbent."
It's a good lead for an incumbent that has been relentlessly attacked by the press, the dems, the 527's for the past year. They attacked him endlessly and still kerry has NEVER lead.
Kerry has a hell of a lot of things going against him. His supporters are more anybody but bush than pro kerry. Senators don't win the white house very often. People don't like to replace their leaders during a war. Incumbants don't lose unless they completely fail (carter) or turn off their base (GHWB, Ford).
And kerry has seen eroding support in nearly every demographic group: Women, blacks,hispanics, jews, etc.
Should have said "early voters" in my earlier post. Early voters are NOT excluded from this poll per Gallup's footnote at the USA Today web site. They are included in the LV results.
Alright....
More Dems sampled it appears.
Also, and this is the main point, THE TIE IS THEIR PROJECTION BASED ON TURNOUT. Their projection is different from other polls, which still show Bush ahead by a couple points with undecideds about even or going to Bush by a bit (Bush campaign says 60/40, Kerry camp says going 60 percent their way, but real pollsters are saying about even or slight GOP advantage in who the undecideds are breaking to)
Bush actually is ahead 2 points in the poll, not tied. While I do believe there will be a strong Dem GOTV effort, I see the strong GOP effort as worth enough points to put turnout almost at parity..perhaps slight Dem advantage still due to the extreme anti-Bush hatred, but still enough for a Dubya win. Thus, I like the Battleground poll results, which are based on the idea that turnout will be equal, not overly heavy one way or another.
BTW, Gallup also ignores early voting, which is a big portion of the electorate this year...possibly 20 percent. Bush is ahead at 51 percent according to CBS I think, while other sources have him up 15 points nattionally in early voting.
This race will hinge on turnout. If the Dems have many more voters out there, we are toast.
Get everyone you know to the polls.
EARLY VOTERS ARE INCLUDED in LIKELY VOTER RESULTS. I stand corrected.
State polls still look good. Iowa is a bit freaky, but Mason D. still has a strong Bush lead there.
Correction....Gallup is not ignoring early voting.
I think at this point it is safe to conclude you are simply dishonest.
I had it right. Kerry has a 2 point lead among RV:
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/polls/usatodaypolls.htm
| Kerry/ Edwards | Bush/ Cheney | Nader/ Camejo | Other (vol.) | None (vol.) | No opinion | |
| Likely Voters | ||||||
| 2004 Oct 29-31 ^† | 47 | 49 | * | 1 | * | 3 |
| Final Allocated Estimate | 49 | 49 | 1 | 1 | -- | -- |
| Kerry/ Edwards | Bush/ Cheney | Nader/ Camejo | Other (vol.) | None (vol.) | No opinion | |
| Registered Voters | ||||||
| 2004 Oct 29-31 ^† | 48 | 46 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 2004 Oct 22-24 ^† | 47 | 49 | 1 | * | 1 | 2 |
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