Posted on 10/23/2004 2:17:04 PM PDT by Hermann the Cherusker
Dude, this is posted already. Didn't you get my ping?
Here's the update of the 15 day and 6 day moving averages for you to graph. Over the next two days, Bush will move through two of his three remaining weak days under 48.0%. He had five such days 9/24-28, three such days 10/5-7, two 10/12-13, and one on 10/18. This accounts for the nice upward trend in his 15 day number.
Date | Bush | Kerry | Bush | Kerry |
2-Jun | 44.80 | 45.00 | 45.00 | 44.00 |
3-Jun | 44.60 | 44.80 | 44.50 | 44.00 |
4-Jun | 45.00 | 44.80 | 45.00 | 44.50 |
5-Jun | 44.80 | 45.00 | 44.50 | 45.00 |
6-Jun | 44.80 | 44.80 | 45.00 | 44.50 |
7-Jun | 45.00 | 44.80 | 44.50 | 45.00 |
8-Jun | 44.80 | 45.00 | 45.00 | 45.00 |
9-Jun | 44.80 | 44.80 | 45.00 | 45.50 |
10-Jun | 45.00 | 44.80 | 45.00 | 45.00 |
11-Jun | 45.40 | 44.40 | 46.00 | 44.50 |
12-Jun | 45.20 | 44.60 | 45.50 | 45.00 |
13-Jun | 45.40 | 44.80 | 46.00 | 45.00 |
14-Jun | 45.40 | 45.20 | 46.50 | 45.50 |
15-Jun | 45.40 | 45.00 | 46.50 | 45.00 |
16-Jun | 45.40 | 45.00 | 46.50 | 45.00 |
17-Jun | 45.80 | 45.20 | 46.00 | 46.00 |
18-Jun | 45.80 | 45.20 | 46.00 | 45.50 |
19-Jun | 45.60 | 45.20 | 45.50 | 45.50 |
20-Jun | 46.00 | 45.40 | 46.00 | 45.50 |
21-Jun | 45.40 | 45.60 | 45.00 | 46.00 |
22-Jun | 45.40 | 45.60 | 44.50 | 46.50 |
23-Jun | 45.80 | 45.80 | 45.00 | 46.50 |
24-Jun | 46.00 | 45.40 | 45.50 | 46.00 |
25-Jun | 45.60 | 45.60 | 45.00 | 46.00 |
26-Jun | 45.60 | 46.20 | 45.00 | 46.50 |
27-Jun | 45.80 | 45.80 | 46.50 | 45.50 |
28-Jun | 45.20 | 45.60 | 45.50 | 45.00 |
29-Jun | 45.40 | 45.80 | 45.50 | 45.50 |
30-Jun | 45.60 | 45.80 | 45.50 | 46.00 |
1-Jul | 45.00 | 45.80 | 45.00 | 45.50 |
2-Jul | 45.40 | 46.00 | 45.50 | 45.50 |
6-Jul | 45.80 | 46.00 | 46.00 | 46.00 |
7-Jul | 45.40 | 45.60 | 46.00 | 45.50 |
8-Jul | 45.40 | 46.00 | 46.00 | 46.00 |
9-Jul | 46.20 | 46.00 | 46.50 | 46.50 |
10-Jul | 45.60 | 46.00 | 46.00 | 47.00 |
11-Jul | 45.60 | 46.20 | 45.50 | 47.00 |
12-Jul | 45.60 | 46.60 | 45.00 | 47.50 |
13-Jul | 45.40 | 46.60 | 45.00 | 48.50 |
14-Jul | 45.40 | 46.60 | 45.00 | 48.00 |
15-Jul | 45.40 | 47.00 | 44.50 | 48.00 |
16-Jul | 45.60 | 47.20 | 45.50 | 48.00 |
17-Jul | 45.60 | 47.00 | 45.50 | 47.50 |
18-Jul | 45.60 | 47.00 | 45.50 | 47.00 |
19-Jul | 46.00 | 47.00 | 46.50 | 46.50 |
20-Jul | 45.80 | 46.80 | 46.50 | 46.00 |
21-Jul | 45.60 | 47.00 | 46.50 | 46.00 |
22-Jul | 45.60 | 47.60 | 46.00 | 46.50 |
23-Jul | 45.60 | 47.20 | 46.00 | 46.50 |
24-Jul | 45.40 | 47.00 | 46.00 | 46.50 |
25-Jul | 45.80 | 47.20 | 45.50 | 47.50 |
26-Jul | 45.80 | 46.80 | 45.50 | 47.00 |
27-Jul | 45.80 | 46.80 | 45.50 | 47.00 |
28-Jul | 45.80 | 47.20 | 45.50 | 47.50 |
29-Jul | 45.80 | 46.80 | 45.50 | 47.00 |
30-Jul | 45.80 | 46.80 | 45.50 | 47.50 |
31-Jul | 45.80 | 47.00 | 45.50 | 47.50 |
1-Aug | 45.60 | 47.20 | 45.00 | 48.50 |
2-Aug | 45.80 | 47.00 | 45.50 | 47.50 |
3-Aug | 45.40 | 47.60 | 45.50 | 47.50 |
4-Aug | 45.40 | 47.40 | 45.50 | 47.50 |
5-Aug | 45.40 | 47.40 | 45.50 | 47.50 |
6-Aug | 45.60 | 47.60 | 45.50 | 48.00 |
7-Aug | 45.80 | 47.20 | 46.50 | 46.50 |
8-Aug | 46.00 | 47.40 | 46.50 | 47.50 |
9-Aug | 46.00 | 47.60 | 47.00 | 47.50 |
10-Aug | 45.80 | 47.80 | 46.50 | 48.00 |
11-Aug | 46.00 | 47.80 | 47.00 | 48.00 |
12-Aug | 46.00 | 47.60 | 46.50 | 47.50 |
13-Aug | 46.00 | 47.80 | 46.00 | 48.50 |
14-Aug | 46.20 | 47.60 | 46.00 | 48.00 |
15-Aug | 46.00 | 47.80 | 45.50 | 48.00 |
16-Aug | 46.40 | 47.60 | 46.50 | 48.00 |
17-Aug | 46.20 | 48.00 | 46.00 | 48.00 |
18-Aug | 46.20 | 47.80 | 46.00 | 48.00 |
19-Aug | 46.40 | 48.00 | 46.50 | 48.00 |
20-Aug | 46.60 | 48.00 | 46.50 | 48.50 |
21-Aug | 46.40 | 47.60 | 46.50 | 47.50 |
22-Aug | 46.40 | 48.00 | 46.50 | 47.50 |
23-Aug | 46.20 | 48.00 | 46.50 | 47.50 |
24-Aug | 46.20 | 47.60 | 47.00 | 47.00 |
25-Aug | 46.60 | 47.60 | 47.00 | 47.00 |
26-Aug | 46.40 | 47.40 | 46.50 | 46.50 |
27-Aug | 46.40 | 47.20 | 46.50 | 46.50 |
28-Aug | 46.80 | 47.20 | 47.00 | 46.50 |
29-Aug | 46.80 | 47.00 | 47.50 | 45.50 |
30-Aug | 46.60 | 46.80 | 46.50 | 46.00 |
31-Aug | 46.80 | 46.80 | 47.00 | 46.00 |
1-Sep | 47.00 | 46.60 | 47.50 | 46.00 |
2-Sep | 47.20 | 46.20 | 48.00 | 45.50 |
3-Sep | 47.40 | 46.20 | 48.00 | 45.50 |
4-Sep | 47.42 | 45.94 | 48.05 | 45.85 |
5-Sep | 47.32 | 46.08 | 48.30 | 45.70 |
6-Sep | 47.52 | 46.10 | 48.30 | 45.75 |
7-Sep | 47.68 | 46.00 | 48.20 | 46.00 |
8-Sep | 47.56 | 45.98 | 47.90 | 46.45 |
9-Sep | 47.62 | 46.06 | 47.55 | 46.65 |
10-Sep | 47.84 | 46.04 | 47.55 | 46.75 |
11-Sep | 47.86 | 46.00 | 47.85 | 46.30 |
12-Sep | 47.88 | 45.90 | 47.90 | 46.00 |
13-Sep | 47.76 | 46.32 | 47.70 | 46.30 |
14-Sep | 47.88 | 46.10 | 47.30 | 46.30 |
15-Sep | 47.94 | 45.98 | 47.80 | 45.80 |
16-Sep | 48.22 | 45.86 | 48.45 | 45.55 |
17-Sep | 47.92 | 46.14 | 48.15 | 45.85 |
18-Sep | 48.02 | 45.94 | 48.35 | 45.60 |
19-Sep | 47.96 | 46.14 | 48.55 | 45.40 |
20-Sep | 48.02 | 45.92 | 48.65 | 45.25 |
21-Sep | 48.16 | 45.74 | 48.85 | 45.15 |
22-Sep | 48.26 | 45.64 | 48.30 | 45.45 |
23-Sep | 48.18 | 45.70 | 48.55 | 45.35 |
24-Sep | 48.14 | 45.68 | 47.85 | 46.00 |
25-Sep | 48.28 | 45.66 | 48.35 | 45.55 |
26-Sep | 48.12 | 45.78 | 48.10 | 45.95 |
27-Sep | 48.04 | 45.86 | 47.60 | 46.30 |
28-Sep | 48.34 | 45.64 | 47.90 | 46.30 |
29-Sep | 48.52 | 45.54 | 48.15 | 45.90 |
30-Sep | 48.28 | 45.80 | 48.15 | 46.10 |
1-Oct | 48.22 | 45.76 | 48.30 | 45.80 |
2-Oct | 48.40 | 45.62 | 48.85 | 45.45 |
3-Oct | 48.20 | 45.92 | 48.75 | 45.75 |
4-Oct | 48.38 | 45.76 | 48.65 | 45.70 |
5-Oct | 48.36 | 45.96 | 48.25 | 46.30 |
6-Oct | 47.98 | 46.20 | 48.10 | 46.15 |
7-Oct | 48.18 | 46.14 | 48.20 | 46.40 |
8-Oct | 48.24 | 46.10 | 48.15 | 46.55 |
9-Oct | 48.42 | 46.08 | 48.40 | 46.40 |
10-Oct | 48.50 | 45.98 | 48.65 | 46.10 |
11-Oct | 48.60 | 45.88 | 48.70 | 45.75 |
12-Oct | 48.34 | 46.02 | 48.50 | 45.85 |
13-Oct | 48.44 | 45.96 | 48.55 | 45.85 |
14-Oct | 48.48 | 46.00 | 48.75 | 45.65 |
15-Oct | 48.44 | 45.90 | 48.20 | 45.65 |
16-Oct | 48.36 | 46.14 | 47.95 | 46.20 |
17-Oct | 48.46 | 46.16 | 48.5 | 46.15 |
18-Oct | 48.14 | 46.28 | 48.25 | 46.4 |
19-Oct | 48.28 | 46.24 | 48.25 | 46.4 |
20-Oct | 48.54 | 46.14 | 48.4 | 46.65 |
21-Oct | 48.46 | 46.14 | 48.15 | 46.75 |
22-Oct | 48.54 | 46.08 | 48.65 | 46.25 |
23-Oct | 48.46 | 46.26 | 48.15 | 46.8 |
What is it about Friday? Kerry ALWAYS seems to have has his best day of the week on FRIDAY
I saw the Job Approval posted.
Why this obsession with each day's new poll results? If we really want to know how rapidly the country is swinging from one candidate to the other, we should, at a minimum, be polling hourly. Better still would be constant 24 hour a day polling with instantaneous compilation and reporting of results over the internet.
To be more specific that's Bush 48.0 Kerry 46.7
Looks pretty unremarkable to me. What should I be seeing?
The Ras poll picks up Saturday and Sunday in its 3 day rolling average next week, don't be surprised to see Kerry take the lead, at least, for a few days.
Got a link for that?
The Ras poll picks up Saturday and Sunday in its 3 day rolling average next week, don't be surprised to see Kerry take the lead, at least, for a few days.
They have been doing that all along. Kerry never breaks 47.5%. Bush will not trail at all.
In the first post you mentioned a "ping".
If you have a ping list for poll updates, please add me.
Thanks.
The raw data for Rasmussen would show this
Wednesday night
Bush 44.9 Kerry 46.6
Thursday night
Bush 51.9 Kerry 44.2
Friday Night
Bush 47.2 Kerry 49.3
3 day rolling average
Bush 48.0 Kerry 46.7
Now you are seeing half of what you should be seeing.
Look at the Kerry data. Look very long term and nearer term since September.
So we almost certainly will bump up tomorrow.
I would hope that we will see each night start to remain more constant as the election is getting closer. I would not expect to see the last weekend having the weekend effect as much as in the previous weekends.
I believe Bush will start having more 51-44 nights and start reflecting a growing gap in the closing days. I think the final vote on election day will be Bush 52.4 Kerry 45.7 and all others 1.9 percents with Bush taking 320 or so electoral college votes.
You are a pessimist!
;-)
I'm thinking over 360 EV.
Why wouldn't this already be happening? When exactly is this supposed to occur? When are we in "the closing days"?
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