Rasmussen Presidential Tracking Poll: Bush 49% Kerry 44%

Rasmussen Reports ^ | 2.25.04

[LS]

Guess you haven't been around here very long: many of us bashed the "established" pollsters BADLY from 1996-2000, when ONLY Zobgy (well, maybe Battleground) doing well.

A prof from Purdue even posted an extensive analysis of all the 1996 polling, where he found that all of them were off to the LEFT, which totally defied the odds unless there was a bias involved.

On Ras, I will give him credibility on his national poll when he establishes it. Fool me once . . . .

[Timesink]

Did we have daily tracking this early in 2000?

[Paul_B]

>You can tell when Bush/Kerry Rasmussen poll moves away from the weekend, Bush maintains the lead.

Thankfully, the election is on a Tuesday. ;)

[Coop]

The day before the 2000 election the Rasmussen (POA) poll had Bush up 48-41%. Battleground had Bush up 46-37%.

[ambrose]

I've been around, and we have hit established pollsters plenty. Just not every single time a new poll thread is posted.

I was also highly suspicisious of Rasmussen until he caught Edward's sudden surge - right before his strong second place showing in WI. No other pollster caught this.

Anyway, a tracking poll is most interesting for its trends since the same polling methods (whether flawed or valid) are used night after night. I

[ambrose]

I don't think so. Daily tracking poll in Feb. is a bit nuts, don't ya think?

[samantha]

It is very simple. Republicans or conservatives work during the week,and on the weekend,they are enjoying activities with their kids,playing golf,grocery shopping,improving their property by maintaining it. Dem voters are panhandling during the week or cashing their taxpayer funded checks,or hanging out in pool halls or bars. On the weekend dems answer the phone,pubbies do not as a general rule because they work hard all week so they can relax and not be bothered. Pubbies are notorious for screening their phone calls all the time. Dems do not screen their calls,it may be Ed Mcmahon calling with bundles of money LOL.

[A_Niceguy_in_CA]

While many Republicans and Conservatives spend their weekends attending Church and Church related activities, The DU'ers are home getting stoned, drunk and engaging in gay sex and answering the telephone to participtate in the latest polls(...the DU'ers especially love it when CNN pollsters call).

[Coop]

People often overlook two things: 1) Taking the word of just one pollster as Gospel - no matter who the pollster - is just not very smart. 2) National tracking polls in a Presidential race are interesting, and give a good indication of the national voting totals, but have next-to-nothing to do with the electoral college.

A variety of polls (Zogby, POA, WSJ, etc.) showed a very close national race in 2000. That's what we got. National totals: Al Gore - 48.4%: George Bush - 47.9%.

[demlosers]

The day before the 2000 election the Rasmussen (POA) poll had Bush up 48-41%. Battleground had Bush up 46-37%.

As I recall, the 2000 presidential election had about 10% undecided voters in these polls; it appears the majority of them voted for Gore. And the DUI/DWI Bush hit piece 8 days before the election help push those mushy voters to Gore.

[nycgambit]

Bush had to move in this direction due to Mayors who ignore state law. Also due to the full faith and credit for states in the constitution it was just a matter of time until this became a federal issue for somoene married in MA and moving to Ohio.

For most I am hoping they will look at national security. Marriage will always be here to debate, deficits will come and go but I want someone to make me and my family safe here in NYC.

[Coop]

IIRC, the undecideds broke about 3:1 for Gore, virtually unheard of for a pseudo-incumbent. Compliments of the DWI story.

[petercooper]

These polls mean jack right now. Why is everyone getting all worked up about them?

[Mike Darancette]

Bush is on the a run.

[ambrose]

One thing to watch out for is pollsters who play games all throughout the race, then have their final poll be accurate. Zogby is one of them.

The LA Times poll had Schwarzenegger consistently trailing Bustamante throughout the recall race - until their final poll before the election. One of their polls had Bustamante with 35% and Schwarzenegger with 22%

[Monty22]

A friend of mine said in NYC, if you're a Republican primary voter, you won't get any help or directions afterwards. If you vote Dem, they're helpful.

It seems INSANELY tilted like a total machine up there.

[mystery-ak]

Unfortnately, according to all polls, national security/terrorism is at the bottom of the issues list.....to me, this is the only issue.

[Wild Irish Rogue]

" One thing seems for certain. Bush wants to face Kerry, not Edwards. "

Maybe I am reading too much into things, but, I think Kerry was the White House dream candidate all along. Karl Rove shows up at a 4th of July parade,laughingly telling bystanders to please, please nominate Howard Dean. The White House and Republicans treat Dean like he can't win, 2004 will be a blow out, yada, yada, that becomes part of the public persona, the Dems panic and throw Dean overboard. Don Clinteone reacted predictably and put Kerry's horse head in Dean's bed.
For all his faults, Dean was young and energetic and could have been portrayed as a calm, caring physician by the Dems. I never thought Dean was going to be the cake walk that the Republican pundits did .
His scream was way overblown and misrepresented by the MSM in their panic. He didn't have the bloody history that Kerry does.
We have just scratched the surface on Kerry's background and there are mountains of questions about his personal background-from his behavior during the war and afterwards, all his votes and flip flops, his love life and his medical history , including his wife hinting that he has had or needed psychiatric care for PTSD,
his plastic surgeries,his cosmetic procedures, his prostate cancer and his present state of health, including theories about Marfan's Syndrome. Kerry does not look strong nor fit nor that he has the stamina to go the distance in a long presidential campaign.
When he is being interviewed on tv, Kerry is obviously filmed using the Barbara Walters fuzzy lens to soften him and make him look healthier and younger.
Forgetting policy, Dean looked like someone you could have a beer with and watch a football game. And that's a quality that President Bush also has-he can be comfortable around everyone. Kerry looks like someone who would give you his fish eye, little people glance and then order you to bring the car around.
But above all,Kerry should have a Hammer and Sickle on the tail of his Gulf Stream V, instead of the Heinz 57 logo.

[Wolfstar]

You might find this study I did interesting. It was a case study using the CA recall polls. I know some of the people who responded to that thread when it first was posted were negative, but the truth is that the media use polls both as predictors and as a means to try to manipulate public opinion.

Link to poll study thread.

[Wolfstar]

I agree with you about national security/terrorism, and I would also caution against taking anything polls say at face value. Media polls are used to manipulate — not to report public opinion, but to shape it. Check out my post #39 on this thread.