Posted on 10/25/2003 12:18:39 PM PDT by Cicero
Oh, OK. My only point was those homes that sold in the early 90s, today will bring twice the price, or more.....Which makes this article kinda laughable....
It's Arnold v. the 'U-Haul indicator'
Popular economics
Jason Chow Financial Post
Tuesday, October 21, 2003The cost of renting a 26-foot U- Haul moving truck for a one-way trip from Los Angeles to Las Vegas is US$1,080. The same move in the opposite direction costs only US$133.
To economist Brian Wesbury, the difference in cost is an accurate snapshot of the economic climate in California: People are moving out of the state as opportunity diminishes and few want to move into a slumping economy.
A one-way U-Haul move from Los Angeles to Phoenix costs US$837 while the return costs US$116. San Francisco to Boise: US$2,024. Return trip: US$310.
Compare those rates to what U-Haul charges for the same truck between two Midwestern cities. A U-Haul rental from Chicago and Detroit costs US$419. The return rental is almost identical in price at US$449.
"Obviously, California is having a hard time keeping U-Haul trucks in the state," wrote Mr. Wesbury, in a note to clients.
Mr. Wesbury, who works at brokerage firm Griffin, Kubik, Stephens & Thompson in Chicago, says the Chicago-Detroit rates show the flow of trucks between the two cities is virtually equal when compared with the flow of trucks between California and other western cities.
The Golden State is in a slump, and people are leaving en masse, and Mr. Wesbury says it will prove to be a political test for the state's new governor to equalize the growing disparity in U-Haul rates.
"Arnold Schwarzenegger's success as Governor of California can be measured by his ability to stop migration and bring U-Haul rates back in balance."
While economists usually look at indicators such as personal income growth and state gross domestic product as barometers of economic climate, Mr. Wesbury says such indicators don't accurately portray what's going on at that moment.
Take the example of personal income growth. During the 12-month period ending March, 2003, personal income in California rose 3.5%, while in neighbouring Arizona and Nevada it grew 4.0% and 4.7% respectively.
While the number shows a gap between the states, it also represents a trend that occurred in a past timeframe.
Mr. Wesbury says most indicators fail to depict the here and now. For that, he prefers to look at market prices, such as U-Haul rental rates.
"A much better real time indicator of California's ability to create economic opportunity is the cost of renting a U-Haul truck," he wrote.
"Because markets bring together the decisions of millions, they always provide signals that are much more accurate than forecasters, politicians or the press."
CALIFORNIA EXODUS: The cost of renting a 26 ft. U-Haul truck one way:
Los Angeles to Las Vegas: US$1,080
Las Vegas to Los Angeles: US$133
Los Angeles to Phoenix: US$837
Phoenix to Los Angeles: US$116
Los Angeles to Denver: US$1,908
Denver to Los Angeles: US$498
San Francisco to Boise: US$2,024
Boise to San Francisco: US$310
Chicago to Detroit : US$419
Detroit to Chicago: US$449
Source: Griffin, Kubik, Stephens & Thompson Inc.
jchow@nationalpost.com
© Copyright 2003 National Post
I've got you beat!
I rented a 26 foot u-haul from Cookeville, Tennessee, to Modesto, CA.
It blew a fuel line in San Jone (sp?), New Mexico. They towed it to Tucumcari (sp?), New Mexico. I told the mechanic that the fuel pump guage was reading low. He said it was o.k. Just the fuel line was broken.
Sure enough, in Albequerque, the engine blew. That was around midnight. They said it would be morning before they could get to it, but that I was welcome to wait with the truck. I had my son with me, so I said, "No thanks." I left the truck, and all my worldly possessions, on the interstate.
The next day, they towed it to a u-haul place, only they didn't have another 26 foot truck. They had the next smaller size. They were also supposed to provide movers to help transfer the load.
The next smallest size didn't hold the load, and the "movers" (Mexicans who barely spoke english) got tired and quit. (It was 105 degrees that day.)
Finally, I got the load transferred into the next smaller truck, with the overflow in the bed of my pick-up (which I was towing).
I got back on my way, 3 days late.
This "new" truck had no air conditioning (which was real nice going through the Mojave). Plus, the alternator went out in Flagstaff.
That was another day lost.
I finally made my destination 5 days late, thanks to that junk business known as "U-Haul."
I had maintained my cool throughout the entire ordeal, but I finally lost it when I told the rep that not only was I never going to patronize U-Haul, again, but that I was also going to burn their boxes. (That's funny, since I bought the boxes, anyway.)
Mr. Wesbury, who works at brokerage firm Griffin, Kubik, Stephens & Thompson in Chicago, says the Chicago-Detroit rates show the flow of trucks between the two cities is virtually equal when compared with the flow of trucks between California and other western cities.From www.gkst.com:
Brian S. Wesbury
Chief Economist
First Vice PresidentThe Wall Street Journal ranked Wesbury the nation's #1 U.S. economic forecaster in 2001. The Chicago Tribune has called him "Chicago's most prominent New Era Economist." He is regularly featured on CNBC and CNN-fn and is also a contributor to the editorial page at the Wall Street Journal, and his comments and writing have appeared in Barron's, Investor's Business Daily, and Forbes magazine.
In 1995 and 1996, Wesbury served as Chief Economist for the Joint Economic Committee of Congress (JEC), chaired by Senator Connie Mack of Florida. Wesbury has also served as a Vice President and Economist for the Chicago Corporation, and as an Economist for Chicago's Harris Bank. Wesbury's earned a M.B.A. from Northwestern University's Kellogg Graduate School of Management and a B.A. in Economics from the University of Montana.
Uh, that don't make much sense, as the homes in So, Cal have done nothing but go *up* not down in price since 2000..... LOL.....
LOL. Great line! That had to be unpleasant.
It was almost surrealistic. I had never been in the desert (had never been west of Dallas, actually), and it was hotter with the window open than closed.
With the window open, it was like sitting in front of a heater.
It was so hot, (how hot was it?), that the lid on my cooler literally warped.
I misread your post, I read it as Santa Clarita, where homes have gone *way* up in price......
You know what was really pathetic? After the 26 footer blew the engine, I was waiting in the lot to transfer the load (to a smaller truck).
While I was waiting, the U-haul mechanics started cannibalizing the 26 footer's engine before I even got it unloaded. They had some other inoperable 26 foot trucks they wanted to get back into circulation.
Then they rented some other piece of junk to some unsuspecting putz, and the cycle starts all over again.
That entire company is junk!
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