Posted on 05/23/2002 1:10:35 AM PDT by nickcarraway
Similar to the "many believe" or "sources say" entres the media use when they gratuitously interject their own opinions into news stories, as in "many believe the president did not act forcefully enough". The rodents do it all the time.
I agree.
Right now, it benefits Simon to have all the bad press surrounding Davis and to lay low. (Simon has consistently sent out press releases, et. al. to the press and his supporters, but the press never covers his events or statements, so people think he ISN'T doing anything when he really IS. He's going directly to the people.)
Anyway, according to even the flawed and inaccurate Field Poll, Davis' negatives are at 50%. That was a month ago. I would imagine they are higher now. When his negatives start to level off, then Simon should ramp up the campaign.
Reality is, however, that we have just over five months before election day. No one focuses on campaigns this early out except political pundits, the press, and politicians. Most people -- 99% of the voters in fact -- just don't give a damn about the election until AT THE MOST six weeks before the election.
Some people criticize Simon for not going enough now. I don't. It would be a waste of resources. He's building his base and growing the grassroots, exactly what he should be doing.
I want to remind people that the media, political operatives, and even Simon supporters were critical of Simon because he didn't come out early (like before Christmas) to start talking about himself. Really, who focuses on a campaign during the holidays? These same naysayers (some of whom are my friends) were angry because when Simon started on radio and tv, the ads were all puff pieces and didn't go after the liberal RINO Riordan.
Well, Simon DID go after Riordan, and he did it once he had created a positive image of himself with the voters. That was smart. Basically, Simon put himself out as a viable, conservative, smart candidate. When Riordan was getting attacked from Davis and Jones ... and later from Simon ... voters had a place to go. Notice, they DIDN'T go to Jones, and Jones and Simon DIDN'T split the anti-Riordan vote. This is because Simon set himself up as THE alternative, THE viable conservative, and Republicans overwhelmingly went to him.
Simon won by more than 18% with nearly 50% of the Republicans voting for him.
While all of us, myself included, have good advice for the Simon campaign ... and, by the way, I agree with you lasereye that Simon can't be "not Davis" and win, elections are never won that way ... I think that if the consultants run as smart a campaign as the did in the primary (though not necessarily the same strategy), then Simon definitely has the edge.
And, finally, abortion WILL NOT be the deciding factor in the election. Simon will benefit more by being pro-life, and real pro-aborts would never, ever in a million years vote for a Republican no matter how strongly s/he advocated killing innocent babies for convenience sake.
Go Simon!
It's not even Memorial Day yet, what do you expect? Nobody is focusing on the campaign right now, and nobody is running ads. That will start up after Labor Day three months from now. In the meantime the newspapers are full of the Davis scandal-de-jour, so why should Simon try to change the focus to himself? That would be exactly what Davis wants.
I apologize. The 'tone' of your response led me to believe otherwise. Because you don't live in California, you aren't aware of how forceful Simon IS, because his water isn't carried by the 'leftist' press, we even have trouble getting it out here. Know a way to get SIMON headlined here in LA-LA land? We have to try and discredit every 'DOOFUS' Davis 'story' because those are the only 'lamestream' stories available.
The media is in the 'forest' when SIMON fells the trees; they just can't bear to print about 'THEIR' trees being felled, for the children.
Here is a memo from a prior post:
Simon Solidly Ahead of Davis in New California Poll
THE INSIDER: POLITICAL INFORMATION NETWORK
THE AUTHORITATIVE GUIDE FOR SACRAMENTO INSIDERS AND POLITICAL LEADERS
M E M O R A N D U M
TO: Sacramento Political Insiders & Interested Parties
FROM: Russo Marsh + Rogers, Inc.
RE: Simon Solidly Ahead of Davis in New California Poll
DATE: April 16, 2002
Another Poll Confirms... SIMON LEADS DAVIS (SIMON: 44.0% - DAVIS: 37.8%)
SACRAMENTO - Another post-primary election survey shows that Governor Gray Davis trails Republican nominee Bill Simon in the race for Governor.
A survey of 825 California voters "somewhat likely" to vote in the November 2002 General Election (conducted by Probolsky & Associates Opinion Research) found that Governor Davis attracted the support of only 37.8% of voters - an abysmal reading for an incumbent Governor seeking re-election. Davis trails Simon (as he has in all other post-primary polling that has been conducted) by over six percentage points. Simon attracted the support of 44% of voters in the Probolsky poll.
These results mirror a Public Opinion Strategies poll taken in mid-March, which showed Simon with a 48%-41% lead over Davis. The Probolsky Poll was conducted April 2 through April 4, after nearly a full month of Davis trying to change the subject from his failed leadership in energy, education and the budget by demonizing Bill Simon. The poll shows Davis' strategy has utterly failed.
Both polls showed that more than 50% of respondents had an unfavorable perception of Governor Davis. The Probolsky poll indicated 53.0% of respondents viewed the Governor unfavorably while the Public Opinion Strategies poll showed 55% of California voters held an unfavorable opinion of the Governor.
"For Governor Davis to have more than half of the electorate already viewing him unfavorably demonstrates the permanent and fatal damage that his failed leadership has done to his political aspirations," declared Simon for Governor strategist, Sal Russo.
"Davis knows he cannot run on his abysmal record of failures in energy, failures in education and failures in the state's budget and economy. This leaves him the only choice of waging a smear campaign against Bill Simon. But when he does, the negative backlash in response to his sleazy tactics will only drive his awfully poor poll numbers even lower," Russo added.
http://www.simonforgovernor.com/Reports/Weekly20020419.html#RMR1
This poll was from mid-March:
THE INSIDER: Political Information Network THE AUTHORITATIVE GUIDE FOR SACRAMENTO INSIDERS AND POLITICAL LEADERS
M E M O R A N D U M TO: Sacramento Political Insiders & Interested Parties FROM: Russo Marsh + Rogers, Inc. RE: Simon Solidly Ahead of Davis in New California Poll
DATE: March 18, 2002
SIMON LEADS DAVIS BY SEVEN! 48% - 41%
SACRAMENTO - A recent statewide poll conducted by the nationally recognized political polling firm, Public Opinion Strategies Inc. (POS), reveals that businessman and charity leader Bill Simon leads Gray Davis 48% to 41%.
The poll results reveal that Gray Davis is extremely vulnerable in his re-election campaign, and California voters are looking to a new leader like Bill Simon to rescue the state from the litany of crises that have exploded on Davis' watch.
Simon Leads Davis Among Both Women and Men
Despite false claims by the Davis campaign that Simon would have a difficult time attracting support from female voters, Simon actually leads Davis among women by a 46%-43% margin. Among men Davis is especially weak. Simon receives support from a majority of men (51%) while only 39% of men support the troubled incumbent Governor.
Democrats Remain Lukewarm Towards Davis - Republicans Solidly Behind Simon
Davis' failures as Governor have been so pronounced that he has a difficult time retaining the support of even registered Democrats. While 81% of Republicans support Simon, Davis receives the support of merely 63% of Democrats.
This point is even more strongly underscored by the intensity of support the two candidates receive. 71% of Republicans strongly support Simon while only 48% of Democrats strongly support Davis.
Simon Lead Over Davis Extends Throughout the State - Including Los Angeles
Just as Bill Simon's lead over Davis extends across numerous demographics, Simon's support similarly is not limited to a specific region in the state. Simon leads in every media market of the state except San Francisco. Among the major media markets Simon's lead is dramatic.
SIMON- DAVIS Ballot by Major Media Market
SAN DIEGO SIMON 57% DAVIS 33%
SACRAMENTO SIMON 52% DAVIS 34%
LOS ANGELES SIMON 49% DAVIS 40%
SAN FRANCISCO SIMON 38% DAVIS 54%
Davis Viewed Unfavorably By 50% of California Voters
After mishandling the state's education policies, energy crisis and budget and fiscal problems, California voters have formed a seriously negative view of Gray Davis. One out of every two voters (50%) views Gray Davis in an unfavorable light.
Meanwhile, almost half of all voters (45%) have a favorable view of Bill Simon, only 42% of voters have a favorable view of Davis.
Davis Failures and Unfavorable Image Lead Voters to Look for Someone New
Davis image problems and poor job performance have resulted in only 36% of voters expressing a desire to re-elect him. A startling 55% of voters said "a new person should be elected Governor of California." Historically when such a number is higher than 50%, it has foreshadowed a resounding defeat for the incumbent on Election Day.
Primary Campaign Perfectly Positioned Simon for General Election Victory
Simon campaign chief strategist, Sal Russo, said, "the primary election campaign which focused on Bill Simon as the candidate of ideas has resonated well with California voters. While Gray Davis is focused on blaming everybody else for his failed leadership, voters are responding to Bill Simon's message of ideas for solving California's problems."
Russo Marsh + Rogers, Inc 770 L Street, Suite 950 Sacramento, CA 95814 (916) 441-3734
...and finally the very liberal California Teachers' Association took a poll in late April that had Simon up 42-37. It was not released but informed sources in the State Capitol were all quoting it.
Is Jeffe the 'protege' of that other USC professor that during the Clinton years acted as a 'mouthpiece for the left', Susan Estrich?
She's an ancient crone.
Wouldn't that be "strategery?" :-)
Except it's not just the liberal media. A few days ago I caught some comments by John & Ken on their afternoon radio talk show (KFI in Los Angeles). From the snippet I heard, I gathered that they'd interviewed Bill Simon the previous day.
I have to explain at this point that John & Ken hate Gray Davis with an intensity and passion that is unsurpassed by anything (with the possible exception of their distaste for Gary Condit). They desperately want Davis to lose in November, and they'd line up behind anybody who has any chance of defeating him.
They were railing against Bill Simon, because he had apparently given them the standard interview responses filled with all the standard cliches and evasions that politicians are prone to use to avoid being pinned down on issues. John & Ken were terrified that Simon was going to be buried by Davis unless Simon got his act together and and found some competent people to manage his campaign.
The above is only anecdotal evidence, but I get a similar impression from other sources. Gray Davis is facing what would normally be considered a "perfect storm" -- a combination of his insane energy policies, his openly-extortionary fundraising mania, his corrupt cronies, highly-hostile "allies" among Democratic legislators and liberal special-interest groups, a dislikable personality subject to raging temper tantrums, and a state budget that has plunged from a huge surplus to a vastly-larger deficit during his first term. If ever an incumbent Democratic Governor in solidly-Democratic California was beatable, Davis is that person.
But unless he changes what he's doing, Simon might very well blow this golden opportunity.
Don't bet on it.
Bush lost California by three (count 'em, three) votes per precinct.
The hurdle is not as high as the media would like us to believe. Gill Scott Heron had a silly song in the early 70's "the revolution will not be televised" ..., well, he's finally right, but it's a different revolution than he had in mind.
BTW, what did you do today to stop Davis and help Simon? FReepmail me if you want to get involved in the volunteer effort. FRegards!
...as do Larry Elder KABC790 and Hugh Hewitt KRLA870, the other two afternoon drive time radio hosts in L.A. Hewitt calls Davis: "the ungovernor"!
I can't think of hardly anyone who professes to like Davis, and that includes most Democrats. Hard-core liberals will hold their noses and vote for him as the lesser of two evils. And the mass of Democratic-leaning voters who are uninterested in and uninformed about state politics may well be propagandized into selecting him instead of a Republican who is evil-by-definition. But enthusiasm for Davis has become an oxymoronic description.
Under these circumstances, and even given California's heavily liberal bent, the November election should be Simon's to lose. And he may well manage to do so. If so, the blame will belong to him and his campaign staff.
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