What if 'China Attacks Taiwan!'

Parameters (US Army War College Quarterly) ^ | Autumn 2001 | Richard L. Russell

[Nitro]

Rules...Rules.. there ain't no rules in a knife fight!!

Someone count 1, 2, 3.....!!

[galento]

We dont belive china have a reason to attac Taiwan its not nesesary to fight their brothers and they will make more money if they dont attac money roules the world as you now Lennart Håman stockholm sweden

[Hopalong]

I wonder how many of them have read the Melian Dialogue, hehe.

Best regards. S&W R.I.P.

[Nitro]

How well do you shoot, I wouldn't want to end up with two of Butch?

As I recall, Sundance was the shooter and he got the girl!

I am a semi-good shooter!

[wildconservatism]

You say statesman and country and other fearful words, where are you from, originally?

I was born in the United States. I'm originally from Massachusetts, born in Worcester Memorial Hospital in the city of Worcester on June 22, 1977 to a middle class, Italian-Irish family, also native-born Americans. The reason I use the generic terms is because they are universal principles, from which no nation can be exempted.

[Nitro]

Mass-of-two-shits!!

No wonder, say no more!!

Go to Hyannisport and see the 1,000 miles of fence knocked down by drunk Kennedy's!!

[FreedomPoster]

I only read the headline and the last paragraph. My take - other than 4-6 escorts for the CVBG's (carrier battlegroups) in the Indian Ocean, the SSN fleet (attack subs; Los Angeles Class 688 boats, Improved Los Angeles class boats, and SSN 21 Seawolf class boats) shouldn't be very heavily occupied, as the Soviets aren't expected to be surging into the North Atlantic through the GIUK gap to disrupt shipping lanes to/from Europe (since they don't exist, and most of that fleet barely exists).

A few attack subs in the area would really put a hitch in any invasion get-along, as they should be able to take out any escorts (and larger transports) of an invasion fleet, making the remaining transports and landing craft sitting ducks for smaller missle and gun platforms.

[wildconservatism]

I no longer live there. I am in exile from Kennedy country.

[Carry_Okie]

In turn, for this to work they need a semi-legitimate Fifth Column on Taiwan, who would for call for mainland intervention in the manufacutred "crisis."

A big problem in any "free" country. One needs to foster freedom to maintain the productivity and integrity of a committed citizenry, yet that same freedom invites a fifth column as we have seen in our university system and the opening of our borders.

[Nitro]

Knocked up?

Or, knocked down?

[wildconservatism]

Knocked up?

Or, knocked down?

I don't think I follow.

[Nitro]

Ted!

or Joan?

[Hopalong]

FYI.

Best regards. S&W R.I.P.

[Howlin]

Can you even believe it? BC&TSDK is on TONIGHT!!!! I haven't seen it in years!

[Sawdring]

Thanks for the flag on this article. Do you think China would use nuclear weapons on Taiwan prior to an invasion? I don't think they would if you pardon my use of a cliche, they would be killing the goose that lays the golden egg. On the other hand, I suppose if they figure Taiwan is a US aircraft carrier a couple miles off of the Chinese mainland then they might. Tough to tell. Their other golden egg, Hong Kong, seems to be going down hill just as fast as the world economy is so maybe they don't need golden eggs just the security the island of Taiwan gives and the access it denies foriegn vessels entering the South China Sea.

[Poohbah]

Hiding large numbers of transport airplanes underground isn't physically impossible. It is, however, fiscally impossible.

And "massive nettings in isolated harbors" will not hide an invasion fleet from modern sensors--even commercial satellites will detect them. Indeed, attempting to hide a massive fleet of barges will tend to attract attention to them. Suggested reading: "The Age of Fatal Visibility," by Ralph Peters, Military Review, August 1988, pp. 50-59.

Finally, if China uses nukes on Taiwan, there will be two unfortunate results: Taiwan will use her own nukes in retaliation, and target those regions that give China profitable foreign exchange with the rest of the world (someone has calculated that China's entire foreign trade surplus is generated in a region the size of New Jersey), and the rest of the world will suddenly tell China "Tango Sierra, you brought it upon yourself."

[Poohbah]

Another issue: China wants to be taken seriously as a superpower. Taking Taiwan by virtue of having more soldiers than the Taiwanese have bullets does not enhance that image. A campaign as exsanguinary an invasion of Taiwan would be would probably cause a massive loss of face. Stalin didn't care how he looked when he couldn't beat Finland cleanly. In the Orient, how one looks to everyone else--particularly barbarian foreigners--is EVERYTHING. And looking that inept is just embarrassing.

[Voronin]

I doubt it will happen (I'll eat my hat if they do). Why?

1: All Taiwan's investment is going into China, therefore China has gained enormous economic leverage without doing anything.

2: China has joined the WTO. The importance of this cannot be overstated. China's primary goal is that the country's economy successfully transforms and competes on the world stage.

3: An attack would have very unpredictable results at a time when China's markets are starting to liberalize. When China had protected markets, it had a lot more control over its economy and was a lot less vulnerable to outside factors.

4: The Taiwan issue is just a diversion. Politicians have formented or hyped up the possibility of conflict abroad as a way of diverting attention from the mess at home. As I stated before, China doesn't need to invade Taiwan.

The massive social instability that the changes in the chinese economy has wrought and the almost total lack of political reform means that 'the man in the street' needs to be distracted. What is closer to every man (and womane etc.) but an deeply emotive territorial question? It is my belief that the Chinese saw the disaster in the Soviet Union where political reform preceeded economic reform and so reversed the strategy. A man cannot 'eat' political rights. With a billion + people, it is not a decision taken lightly. Such a strategy syncs with Chinese tradtion of focusing much more on the long term goals. It's my bet that political reform will start with a two party state setup...

I could, of course, be completely wrong. We'll see (in the next 5 to twenty years).

VRN

[Hopalong]

Ooops, Poohbah—was in the wrong box and pushed the wrong button by mistake. Scratch e-mail and substitute here:

---

"The reference to Stalin's War with Finland is evocative:

"Nobody respects a country with a poor army, but everybody respects a country with a good army. I raise my toast to the Finnish Army." [ Stalin, 1948 ]

---

Pardon the botch.

Best regards. S&W R.I.P.

[roostercogburn]

China will not attack. Let us be honest guys. The Chicoms will NOT use nukes. And the United States WILL defend Taiwan. It is that simple. China doesn't want the island that badly.