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THE PRICE OF FREEDOM AND DEMOCRACY: WHY CHINA WILL NOT BE THE GREATEST ECONOMIC POWER BY 2015
November 6, 2001 | American_Patriot_For_Democracy

Posted on 11/06/2001 5:10:12 PM PST by American_Patriot_For_Democracy

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1 posted on 11/06/2001 5:10:12 PM PST by American_Patriot_For_Democracy
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To: American_Patriot_For_Democracy
... I've certainly lost any (however tiny) respect for that "third world country" Thanks Bill & Al
2 posted on 11/06/2001 5:13:16 PM PST by RKBA_Champ
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To: American_Patriot_For_Democracy
Has anybody made money over there? I understand many have made money on export-import, but taking an American business into China, other than McDonald's?
3 posted on 11/06/2001 5:15:14 PM PST by WriteOn
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To: WriteOn; American_Patriot_For_Democracy
The company I was working with went to China set up shop and then China unilaterally changed the rules. They haven't made much money since. American_Patriot_For_Democracy is right about China.
4 posted on 11/06/2001 5:26:36 PM PST by Free the USA
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To: Free the USA
I figured as much. I've heard of a couple of companys trying to go in, but I've heard of none making money.
5 posted on 11/06/2001 5:28:53 PM PST by WriteOn
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To: American_Patriot_For_Democracy
Thank you so much for that reality check, Patriot! China is still a dangerous mongrel, but it knows it will never fully defeat the US. And yeah, it's high time to start giving worthy countries our labor, (Like India...)

With 1.3 Billion people, China better hope and pray those terrorists never release smallpox. Because it WILL hit them, and with 1.3 billion people, it will eat them like WILDFIRE.
6 posted on 11/06/2001 5:51:30 PM PST by WyldKard
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To: American_Patriot_For_Democracy
According to the CIA in their report, "Global Trends 2015," China's GDP will surpass America's by around 2015. Right now, China's GDP is $5 trillion and America's is $10 trillion. By by 2015, given the higher growth rate of China's GDP, China's GDP will be $15 trillion while America's is $14 trillion. Then, China will have the remainder of the 21st century to pull farther ahead of America. This eventuality is just a matter of time. There's really nothing anyone can do about it, so it's best just to get used to it. Sure, China still has problems, but China had even more problems 20 years ago, and in 20 short years of capitalism, China has managed to become the world's 2nd largest economy. Your essay has several big errors though that you may want to correct. First, China graduates more hi-tech workers than the US. These are very hi-quality, I might add. This is one reason every hi-tech firm in the world is relocating their plants to China right now, including American, Japanese, Taiwanese, Korean, etc. firms. Second, while it's true 16% of China's population still lives in poverty, 16% is a far lower figure than what China had 20 years ago before it began capitalist reforms. In those 20 years, China has seen the greatest reduction in poverty the world has ever witnessed, where hundreds of millions of Chinese have been raised out of poverty. You cannot say the same for India in its 50 years of democracy. Third, China's construction industry is the fastest-growing in the world right now, so while China may still not have many highways now, new highways, roads, buildings, infrastructure, etc. are being built daily. Just ask Caterpillar where their biggest market is these days.
7 posted on 11/08/2001 1:58:28 PM PST by amory
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To: American_Patriot_For_Democracy
As for legal system, I agree China has work, but China is at least tackling tough legal and other reforms in its society, while democratic India, Indonesia, Philippines, etc. shirk reforms. Foreign investors know China is serious about reforms. That is why China gets most of the foreign investment in Asia.

As for foreign debt, even American economists don't view that as a problem for China, in part because China has about $300 billion in foreign exchange reserves and can easily pay its bills. All countries have foreign debt, and the biggest debtor nation in the world is America. China is actually the biggest holder of US bonds right now. This means China has excess money to even loan to America. It's America that has $6 trillion in national debt.

As for drugs and AIDs, it's funny to hear an American talk about any other country's drug or AIDS problems. America is the biggest consumer of narcotics in the world.

8 posted on 11/08/2001 2:21:14 PM PST by amory
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To: American_Patriot_For_Democracy
BUMP!
9 posted on 11/19/2001 3:44:14 PM PST by BERZERKER
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To: BERZERKER
BTTT
10 posted on 11/26/2001 7:41:31 AM PST by American_Patriot_For_Democracy
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To: amory
"According to the CIA in their report, "Global Trends 2015," China's GDP will surpass America's by around 2015."

The whole theme of the essay focuses on the argument that China is far from "destined" to become the world's largest economy by 2015. You should learn to read more carefully. People like you love to hem and haw about China's inevitable eclipsing of the United States in its economy, and this essay is a response to the arrogance of people like you and your ilk. By the way, you quote the CIA, but so did I. In fact, all the facts and figures used in the essay were from the CIA Factbook. Your perceptions are routed by facts.

"This eventuality is just a matter of time (China's eventual economic takeover). There's really nothing anyone can do about it, so it's best just to get used to it."

No. Why should we accept or get used to something that is not even true, or even backed up by fact? Part of Chinese strategy is psychological intimidation, designed to make the "enemy" give up, even before they fight back. But Americans aren't stupid, and if Sun Tzu were here, we would kick his a$$.

The rest of your arguments about hi-tech workers, poverty, and construction are just postures. You basically agree with everything I said, but just tried to say "China is trying hard to overcome these weaknesses." Therefore I will ignore them, as it proves my point, that China's economic destiny is anything but certain.

11 posted on 11/26/2001 8:00:42 AM PST by American_Patriot_For_Democracy
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To: amory
"As for legal system, I agree China has work, but China is at least tackling tough legal and other reforms in its society, while democratic India, Indonesia, Philippines, etc. shirk reforms. Foreign investors know China is serious about reforms. That is why China gets most of the foreign investment in Asia."

Again, you are merely echoing my arguments, that China's legal system is a quagmire of contradictory statutes interspersed with Confucian and Taoist blather. News flash: This is a major weakness. Second, the reason India and other democratic nations, like the US, Britain, and Israel "shirk" reform in their legal systems, is precisely why THEY HAVE BETTER LEGAL SYSTEMS. Legal systems should not be subject to haphazard and continuous "reform," because that would render the law unstable and unpredictable, two things that would drive a foreign investor in China broke faster than crap through a goose. Ever heard of the concept of "stare decisis" in the law? It is considered a GOOD THING for the law not to change, but only minimally, over time, to overcome precedent, only by very good legal arguments and social changes necessary to continue the viabilty of a Constitutional Republic.

"As for foreign debt, even American economists don't view that as a problem for China, in part because China has about $300 billion in foreign exchange reserves and can easily pay its bills. All countries have foreign debt, and the biggest debtor nation in the world is America. China is actually the biggest holder of US bonds right now. This means China has excess money to even loan to America. It's America that has $6 trillion in national debt."

Now that is just an abject lie. Look at the article above. Read the part about China's debt again. Then come back and respond. Your lies are not going to make China any stronger. Maybe you should read more Adam Smith or Alexander Hamilton, instead of Sun Tzu.

"As for drugs and AIDs, it's funny to hear an American talk about any other country's drug or AIDS problems. America is the biggest consumer of narcotics in the world."

Maybe so, but even if that is true, don't you think that this is a problem facing China right now? You forget, that the thesis of the article above is that "China's economic destiny is anything but certain." China's massive drug problem militates strongly against your arguments about China's "manifest destiny" to control the economic world by 2015. I am not saying it is not possible, I am simply saying that it is also quite possible that it will not be, taking into serious consideration the myriad problems facing China in the modern world. And you can bet that China has many, many enemies, all willing to exploit, to the fullest, all of the problems it is facing, to ensure that Communism does not prevail.

12 posted on 11/26/2001 8:16:40 AM PST by American_Patriot_For_Democracy
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To: American_Patriot_For_Democracy
The Chinese have to steal our R&D.

We must crack down on the wholesale loss of our technology, drastically improve our science, math and history education and initiate a large scale technical project or two (Moon base would frost the communist Chinese). All would have the effect of renewing national pride and infrastructure.

13 posted on 11/26/2001 9:00:00 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: WyldKard
sounds like a plan! payback is a bitch!
14 posted on 11/26/2001 9:43:14 AM PST by rockfish59
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To: rockfish59
BTTTT
15 posted on 11/26/2001 8:39:23 PM PST by American_Patriot_For_Democracy
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To: American_Patriot_For_Democracy
I wish I could share your optimism, but I see it this way. Predicting the rise and fall of economies on a long term basis is a simple process of extrapilating figures.

China GDP

1980 216.2 US Billions

1990 363.0

1999 997.5

2000 1076.9

All the problems you point to as reasons to hinder growth have existed in China for at least the last 50 years, with the exception of the environmental issue. If they had, and are having, such a debtremental effect, we should not have seen growth at these levels since 1980. In other words, if it didn't stop them then, why now?

I will admit, it seems to me that China is a nation in turmoil caused by... rapid growth. It could go either way. I'm not dismissing what you have to say out of hand. There is a great likelyhood you may be correct. However, I choose to be extremely cautious and vigilant of the threat.

16 posted on 11/27/2001 6:23:49 PM PST by america76
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To: america76
"Predicting the rise and fall of economies on a long term basis is a simple process of extrapilating (spelling?) figures...All the problems you point to as reasons to hinder growth have existed in China for at least the last 50 years, with the exception of the environmental issue. If they had, and are having, such a debtremental (spelling?) effect, we should not have seen growth at these levels since 1980. In other words, if it didn't stop them then, why now?"

First of all, economic "extrapolation" is never a good indicator of growth, in fact, it is actually quite misleading. Second, the reason why China's myriad problems have not hindered its growth is because the Western powers have done everything possible to ensure that it does not. Why, I do not know. But it is certainly hastening our own demise as a free society.

With China's massive problems, it would be easy to bring it down, or to curb its growth substantially, provided that we took advantage of its many weaknesses. But for some reason, our policymakers are not doing this at all. You tell me the answer.

And don't give me any cr*p about "democratizing" China or "bringing them closer to our way of thinking." The fact remains that everytime we give the Chinese another billion dollars in trade, they are a billion dollars stronger. And also do not tell me that other nations are doing business with them, so we must as well. If we can get every nation in the world to join us in a war, then can't we get those same nations on our side against a nation like China, which kills thousands of its own people a month, commits the most vile and heinous human rights violations since Stalin, stifles art, religion, individuality, creativity, and freedom on a daily basis? Again, you tell me.

17 posted on 11/28/2001 6:46:00 AM PST by BERZERKER
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To: Black Jade; backhoe; GretchenEE; 2sheep; Brian Allen; Zadokite
"This essay is being written to all those China-lovers and sympathizers;"

This thread has your name on it -huh Jade/rofl.
(Jade, I'm truly looking forward to reading more of your material about Communist China and filthbag Bill Clinton...let's see how you do ..... in this thread, good luck!

18 posted on 11/28/2001 6:51:18 AM PST by ChaseR
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To: ChaseR
Maybe Jade chickened out?
19 posted on 11/28/2001 11:40:49 AM PST by BERZERKER
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To: BERZERKER; ChaseR; shaggy eel
No.  B.J. is a team of ChiComs and it is late at night in Beijing now.  You will hear from B.J. when the next shift of B.J.'s come on duty.  Time is ultimately wasted on trying to convince a B.J. to become a freedom-loving American.  Your time would be better spent trying to convince the deceived and dumbed down Americans who believe B.J. to believe instead that America is at war and China is our enemy which has mass murdered millions and intends to destroy America!
20 posted on 11/28/2001 2:35:54 PM PST by 2sheep
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