And Now, the Good News about Smallpox

Slate ^ | October 26, 2001 | Jon Cohen

[FITZ]

I'll ping you to this other thread it was discussed on because links to articles were put up there.

[Think free or die]

"at the apex of the outer shoulder muscle"

Several folks have mentioned other places to look if you don't find it on the upper arm. Mine is on the underside of the upper arm to avoid the unsightly scar problem. Other places mentioned were hip and buttocks.

[twinzmommy]

My husband is 30 (1971) -- he did *not* receive the vaccine. Nor did I (1972). He's 30, I'm 29. Many of our friends in the under -35 bracket do not have the tell-tale scar either.

twinzmommy

[RBurke]

"I have grave doubts that the 30% death estimates are accurate. People overlook that many early smallpox deaths were caused by secondary infections e.g. staph and pneumonia. These can be controlled today. Absent introducing a "Tweeked Bug" I would hazard an estimate of about 5% death. Just a lot of sick folks left with scars"

You need to read the CDCs and John Hopkins study on smallpox. The 30% mortality figures are their figures and recently established. Yes some of the deaths would be caused by secondary infections--which "should" respond to antibiotics. The trouble with that is;

1)During any outbreak of smallpox there will not be enough antibiotics to go around for the population.

2) Delivery of medicines (including antibiotics)will be severely hampered by interstate commerce coming to a halt.

3) Healthcare systems will be overwhelmed quickly.

This is not my opinion but the facts from the John Hopkins study in coordination with the US govt.

[RANGERAIRBORNE]

" I would hazard an estimate of about 5% death. Just a lot of sick folks left with scars.

Are you an Epidemiologist? Neither am I, so our estimates are equally worthless. However, I am really fascinated by people on FR who blithely throw around figures like "about 5%" deaths, as though that were a GOOD THING!

Now, if the attack rate were 100%, a case fatality rate of "about 5%" would mean "about" fifteen MILLION dead Americans. Of course, no disease has an attack rate of 100%, so let's bring that down to a more realistic 10% for the entire country (much higher in some cities, lower in some rural areas). That still gives something like 1.5 MILLION deaths.

[HENRYADAMS]

Sure it is terrible but 5% is not as bad as 30%. I'll stick by my guns. Hysteria, that is America's true epidemic.

[arthurus]

It is bound to get back to the middle east, with international travel the way it is now.

If smallpox is released in North America, I am certain that someone will make sure that it gets back to the near/middle east.

[B52Bomber]

Thank you for posting this article. It affords much peace of mind. (I'm sure all of us can use even a bit of bright news during these trying times.)

[Paradox]

"Great, so what's your point?"

You appear to be a genius at "missing the point"-

I have read this entire thread, and am amazed at the reaction to TomB's posts. He makes total sense, and it concurs with the KNOWN data. Sure, there are studies that show potential disaster, but they try to be realistically pessimistic, because the HAVE to be prepared for the worst case disaster. Turns out that the worst case scenerio is not likely, I think thats good news. Not that we should not be vigilant, but I think we should be realistic.

I am amused to see quite a few people almost WANTING to believe the worst about things and reacting so negatively to TomB. I suppose some people secretly want to think the worst...

[Kozak]

If smallpox is released in North America, I am certain that someone will make sure that it gets back to the near/middle east.

Probably on the nose cone of a poseiden or peacekeeper warhead.
Hell if it does I will PERSONALLY make sure it gets back to there. We can all mail our scabs back to the bastards in Allahland.

[RBurke]

"I suppose some people secretly want to think the worst"

I'm amused that some people don't bother to read the CDCs and John Hopkins report--along with the govts own findings about a possible smallpox outbreak--but would rather listen to "good feeling" opinions with no factual basis, just to avoid feeling unsettled. Weird.

[Stentor]

Hysteria, that is America's true epidemic.

You are correct and it is surprising the hell out of me. It's palpable and sweaty.

[Stefan Stackhouse]

You are assuming that nobody is going to know that smallpox has been spread. This is a silly assertion. As I have pointed out over and over and over, there will be a day or two of infections from the initial group of victims. However, once that occurs, every time a person gets the symptoms, it will be assumed to be smallpox. The statement:

The realitiy is that some poor kids need a lot more wrong with them than just a fever, a cough, and a rash before they are taken in for medical care.

is ridiculous, because once it is announced that smallpox is occurring in a given area, anytime a person gets sick they will assume is the diesase, as anyone paying attention to what is going on with anthrax right now can plainly see. You also continue to ignore the fact that the disease is not contagious for 2-3 days after the person gets sick.

Tom, the flaw in your thinking is that you assume that if the terrorists hit us with smallpox, it will be in ONE place. There is good reason to think that they would hit us in multiple, widely separated locations simultaneously. This has been SOP for the Al Qaida network. They hijacked 4 planes on 9/11 (and may have had teams trying for more). They bombed two embassys in Africa a couple of years ago. Anthrax was mailed to multiple recipients.

Do you have ANY good reason to believe that THIS TIME, the authorities are not immediately going to come out with the automatic disclaimer that the first reported case is an "isolated incident"? That is exactly what they did with the anthrax, yet the truth was that they DID NOT REALLY KNOW whether or not this truly was just an isolated case or part of a larger, broader attack. They did not realize and admit that the attack was larger and broader than they initially thought until many days later.

Perhaps they will perform better this time around. However, given that smallpox is a much more deadly serious threat, I'm not at all sure that parents are going to want to make that gamble with their children's lives.

[maid of orleans]

The scar may be on your bottom. I remember when I was little and went to the doctor to get immunized. I was given a choice of a shot in the arm or the bottom. I remember that the injection site scabbed over and after a week or two the scab fell off.

[Paradox]

about a possible smallpox outbreak--

Like I said, those reports are about possibilities, as you stated. What we have are data that shows that those possiblilities might not be probabilities. I dont think that the discussion of these two ranges of possibilities are incompatible with each other. As of now, we have heard of the more pessimistic possibilities. With the introduction of data to support something less catastrophic, some have come out of the woodwork to denounce it. I dont think that is neccessary.

[rwfromkansas]

Yes, it does give some hope at least. I don't know....perhaps one could transfer genes over to give immunity. I am not sure.

[Demidog]

Look for Japan. A population with 100% vaccination rates was suffering from repeated smallpox epidemics. Hard to explain. Once vaccination was discontinued the outbreaks stopped.

[carenot]

Dang!

I read the whole thing. Took over an hour.

Have to go to bed now.

Thanks for the link. Everyone should read it.

[GWfan]

BTTT. I missed this the first time around.

[loulou]

We took a sugar cube with the polio vaccine in the sugar....no needles....