Well said sir ....
Posted on 11/14/2007 12:41:26 PM PST by jmc813
“Can someone tell me why Fred Thompson does so horribly in NH?”
The NH press, and several political organizations there, warned Fred outright that he was dead in the water if he skipped that debate when he announced... You know, the one he passed up to go on the Tonight Show. At the time, people defended his decision. In hindsight, I’m not sure how smart it was.
Good news, folks. Petronski and I worked things out on the efficacy thread, and this post pasts muster as “not a lie”.
It’s a wide open race, might as well back the most conservative man.
According to Polls, Fred Thompson Foundering
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1925179/posts
Here’s what I’ve been posting lately.
Here’s a recent poll showing Hunter at 4%.
http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/28889/republicans_2008_giuliani_28_thompson_19
Here’s an intrade link to the forum site discussing how Hunter might be gaining traction.
http://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/1797.page
Here’s an intrade link to the forum site discussing how Fred is at $6, which corresponds to the traders believing he has a 6% chance of winning the nomination, and discussing why.
http://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/1805.page
One thing prediction markets are better at — their only bias is whether someone can make money trading the futures contracts.
The Efficacy Of Prediction Markets
The Liberty Papers ^ | November 8, 2007 | Brad Warbiany
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922961/posts
Posted on 11/08/2007 12:21:43 PM PST by E. Pluribus Unum
Fred has lost ~30 points at Intrade over the last few weeks, looks like it’s stabilizing at ~6%.
Thompson Tanking in Futures Markets (Intrade, IEM)
Intrade; Iowa Electronic Markets ^ | October 31, 2008
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1919127/posts
The Dropout contract for Thompson has an ask price 2 points higher than last trade. There is no Dropout contract for Hunter.
http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/
DROPOUT.DEC07.(F)THOMPSON
Fred Thompson to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Dec 2007 M 6.0 9.2 4.0 0 0
37 posted on 11/14/2007 6:53:53 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 25 | View Replies | Report Abuse ]
Amen.
The only guy that actually wants to get us back to the Constitution and he is considered a nut?
Amen.
America has to admit that even we have limits or we will destroy ourselves.
FYI; Rudy can't beat Hillary.
This idiot is WORSE than a dumbocrat!"
Since I haven't asked you yet, the same unanswered question is now presented to you.
Why do you claim Ron Paul is "worse than a dumbocrat"?
I would really like one of you Paul bashers to try to put it into words: Why do you think he's "crazy"?
What is it about Dr. Ron Paul that is so distasteful?
If you can write a coherent response to that question, please do.
If you can't muster the skills to articulate a reasonable answer, then we must assume you are but a child of the site, unable to think for yourself, but willing to repeat the nonsense that some other posters have posted.
Ignoring the NH debate.
Lack of a intensive campaign in NH which is needed in that state.
Well said sir ....
“Can someone tell me why Fred Thompson does so horribly in NH?”
You mean other than snubbing NH when he announced and missing key media/debate opptys,
failing to campaign aggressively in NH and having a slow/not-great campaign overall,
not working enough endorsements,
having a that slow southern speaking style that may work elsewhere but doesnt turn on the Yankees,
and underwhelming them in his speeches?
Gee, I dunno, cant think of anything.
“Here is a guy with whom you probably agree on more than 90% of the issues, and you say he’s worse than a Dem? When was the last time you agreed with a Dem on 90% of the issues? I don’t get you people, and I never will.
My hope is IF (and I agree that it’s a big IF) he becomes president, people like you don’t try to assassinate the man because you disagree with him. You sound like such haters when it comes to anyone you disagree with at all. Wake up genius; this world is full of people with different ideas than you.”
You are correct. And of couse the same point can be made for other candidates, including to an extect the RINOs in the race.
I will vote Ron Paul over Hillary. Paul is wrong on Iraq, but Hillary is worse.
I will vote Rudy over Hillary. Rudy is wrong on abortion, but Hillary is worse.
I will vote McCain over Hillary. Rudy is wrong on immigration, but Hillary is worse.
I will definitely vote Thompson, Romney, Hunter, Tancredo or Huckabee over Hillary.
I will vote for any of the candidates in the general election, if they are nominated. The task then is to get the best candidate to represent us all, and not nominate a candidate who would split the party
Rudy is flawed - he’s a prochoice social liberal
Huckabee is flawed - he’s not a fiscal conservative
McCain is flawed - he a RINO media hound for CO2 regs and amnesty
Ron Paul is flawed - he’s too isolationist to be solid on GWOT issues
There is no perfect candidate, but IMHO Romney, Thompson or Hunter are good enough on the issues that any of them could be a good unifying candidate for the party. Of these, it looks like Romney has the best chance to win. YMMV.
“he over-the-top hate that and venom from the anti-Paul folks is truly amazing to me. And you’re right, they do probably agree with him on 90% or more of the issues, but they just can’t handle the fact that he doesn’t see eye to eye with the hyper-interventionist, nation building, Bushonian foreign policy wing of the GOP.”
Gee maybe some of the over-the-top venom towards the Paulites comes from reacting to the kooky over-the-top attacks on Bush foreign policy.
...
“some people don’t want to even consider that they may be wrong or misled.”
Consider that this is (1) phony statement and (2) recycled talking point from 2004 and 2006 Democrat campaigns and you might have some inkling of where and why the reaction is so heated.
Is Ron Paul the libertarian-Republican running or is the campaign just a puppet for anti-GWOT talking points?
I keep reading this yet I have not seen even one poll that indicates that anyone but Rudy, or McCain can beat Hillary. Every single poll taken shows all of the other candidates being beaten badly by her nationally, and the State polls are no better.
“I would really like one of you Paul bashers to try to put it into words: Why do you think he’s “crazy?”
He’s not crazy. He just caters to those who are conpsiracy nutters.
2 data points:
1. He has repeatedly shown up on the Alex Jones show. Alex Jones peddles in conspiracy theories, as in - we invaded Afghanistan not because of terrorism but for a Unical contract; 9/11 was an inside job; etc.
Alex Jones gave his campaign a max contribution.
2. He has catered to 9/11 truthers as well, implying in discussions with them he finds their theories valid. Hot Air and AllahPundit have the goods on that from some months back.
For the record, I dont find Ron Paul worse than a Democrat and reject that kind of venom. In some ways he is very refreshing and except for foreign policy pretty good. But even Ron Paul supporters have to recognize that his campaign has attracted some flakes.
Polls don’t matter a year out. All but the nationally known candidates poll below because, duh, they arent known enough.
Campaigns change that.
Romney will be the best candidate to beat Hillary:
- Experience outside politics and great accomplishments
- Articulate and able to best her in debates
- Clean record ethically
- Family values vs Clinton scandalabra
- Proven ability to beat a Democrat woman candidate
- A mainstream conservative agenda that can please the base and win nationally
Rudy has several dings that will make his campaign more problematic. McCain would be pretty electable, but annoys the GOP base (including me) and is a bit old.
Thompson could beat Hillary if he had a good campaign, but some questions about that.
BUT ... Hillary never polls above high 40s ... SHE is the one with the electability issues. She’s the Democrat Newt Gingrich. Without the MSM pulling for her, she’s unelectable. As it is, we have a close to 50/50 shot against her.
codercpc wrote: "I keep reading this yet I have not seen even one poll.."
My prediction does not depend on polls for backup.
You will, of course offer to remind me of my rather rash and unsubstaniated prediction after the election, won't you?
Mind if I quote you on that? LOL!
"But even Ron Paul supporters have to recognize that his campaign has attracted some flakes."
I admit.
I am really hoping that all of our candidates could beat the Beast. I just am hoping against hope that if Rudy does get the nomination that many of the people who today say they could never vote for him will look at the dire consequences of 8 more years of Clinton.
I understand the trepidation of voters today, but I hope that when push comes to shove they will do everything in their power to keep her out of the White House.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.