Sen. Winters' potential for Hooley's seat considered [OR-5]

Statesman Journal ^ | July 15, 2003 | Steve Law

[Dan from Michigan]

Didn't Ehlers win his seat by defeating Sikkema in the primary? Is there animosity between the two?

I'm not aware of any animosity, but I'm certain Ehlers did defeat Sikkema awhile back. I'm 100 miles away from Grand Rapids, so I don't follow it as much.

I believe Hardiman may have won the city of Grand Rapids as well though. For outreach efforts he'll be great. I believe he even got as high as 40% in some of the black precincts. That's unheard of. The reason is that Hardiman grew up in Grand Rapids and they know him there. He won Kentwood and the other sububs as well. They expected a closer race than it was.

I agree with the odds on favorite being Sikkema if they run against each other. I don't know if they will or not, and I doubt they will since I believe they are good friends. Sikkema could possibly try and run statewide as well.(although he might have to face either Mike Rogers[My rep] or Candice Miller - IMO, our state's two best candidates)

One other guy to keep an eye on. Valde Garcia. He's my state senator right now and a good guy. He's the odds on favorite to replace Mike Rogers if Rogers runs(and wins) for Senate or Governor.

[fieldmarshaldj]

"I'm not aware of any animosity, but I'm certain Ehlers did defeat Sikkema awhile back. I'm 100 miles away from Grand Rapids, so I don't follow it as much."

Sikkema ran when a special was held following the untimely death of Congressman Paul Henry in 1993, Ehlers winning 33% to Sikkema's 25% (with several others running as well, yet another example of a somewhat liberal candidate prevailing when several conservatives got into the mix).

[AuH2ORepublican]

So, DJ, how would you handicap a Hardiman-Sikkema race? I think Hardiman would be best served if Ehlers doesn't retire until just before the filing deadline in 2006 and gives Hardiman a heads up. If Sikkema doesn't make the ballot, Hardiman should win the primary handily. But in a head-to-head matchup, I'm afraid that there are way too many Republicans in Sikkema's district for Hardiman to be able to defeat him.

[Dan from Michigan]

I forgot another big name from that district. Dick Posthumus(Governor candidate 02 who nearly upset Granholm). He was the state senator there before Sikkema and is also from Kent County.

I don't know if he will run or not. I personally don't think he will want to go to Washington since he's real close to his family, and likes it back on the farm.

But he may get the political bug again in a couple of years.

[fieldmarshaldj]

I'm not really sure how to handicap that one not having intimate knowledge of both gentlemen. Going on surface appearances, obviously, I'd tend to lean towards Sen. Hardiman because we need to broaden the base of support with well-qualified non-Caucasians. I would presume Sen. Sikkema represents more of the district ? If Sikkema runs and wins, Hardiman will never run for Congress. For starters, Sikkema is 52 and Hardiman is 4 years older at 56. If Sikkema decides to spend a dozen years in Congress beginning in '06, Hardiman ain't gonna wanna wait until he's 71 to embark on a career there (especially since there will be a wealth of younger up 'n comers around in the late 2010s). Maybe the WH could find a nice little job for Sikkema ? Ambassador perhaps ? :-)

[fieldmarshaldj]

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that I don't think Posthumus will go out for a Congressional run. I wouldn't be entirely surprised, though, if perhaps he decides to try another stint as State Senator when the seats come open later on in the decade. I was going to say that it would be nice to see him be a major thorn in Jenny Grandstand's butt in the legislature, but hopefully she won't make it to a 2nd term by the time he makes a comeback.

[Dan from Michigan]

I don't know if Posthumus is term limited out of St Senator or not, but I can see him staying in Michigan where he's close to his family.

I wish him the best. He's a good man.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"I would presume Sen. Sikkema represents more of the district ?"
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From what I can see, both Sikkema and Hardiman represent about the same percentage of the district's voters (both Senate districts are wholly within Kent County, which itself is wholly within Ehlers' congressional district), but Sikkema's district is ridiculously Republican while Hardiman's is much less so, so Sikkema starts off with an advantage in the primaries.

I agree with you regarding the fact that if Sikkema wins the seat next year Hardiman will never be able to win it, and I like your ambassadorship suggestion; exactly what I was thinking about. Sikkema is a Finnish name, right? We could always use a good ambassador to Finland. : )

[Dan from Michigan]

Sikkema is a Finnish name, right? We could always use a good ambassador to Finland. : )

Dutch probably. West Michigan, especially Kent County, is extremely Dutch and Calvinist. That whole area is one of the most GOP areas in the entire country.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"Dutch probably. West Michigan, especially Kent County, is extremely Dutch and Calvinist. That whole area is one of the most GOP areas in the entire country."

---

You're right, it skipped my mind. Kent probably isn't as Dutch as Ottawa County nextdoor, but it's still in the Dutch country. I assumed the double K in the middle of Sikkema's name were of Finnish origin, but Dutch names also have double Ks.

We DEFINITELY need a good ambassador to the Netherlands. : )

[fieldmarshaldj]

"From what I can see, both Sikkema and Hardiman represent about the same percentage of the district's voters (both Senate districts are wholly within Kent County, which itself is wholly within Ehlers' congressional district), but Sikkema's district is ridiculously Republican while Hardiman's is much less so, so Sikkema starts off with an advantage in the primaries."

Sounds like. Perhaps it could turn into a contest of personalities, but then I don't know who would win out...

"I agree with you regarding the fact that if Sikkema wins the seat next year Hardiman will never be able to win it, and I like your ambassadorship suggestion; exactly what I was thinking about. Sikkema is a Finnish name, right? We could always use a good ambassador to Finland."

Finland ? If offered that job, Sikkema will think he's "Finnish" with politics... :-)

=deafening silence=

OK, who let the crickets in here ?