Sino-Indian relations on a new path: Envoy

THE TIMES OF INDIA ^ | SUNDAY, JUNE 29, 2003 10:00:14 PM | SUM DROP GOO

[Jeff Head]

FYI, like the article on the joint Indian and Chinese Navy exercises, here's more on developing Sino-Indian relations...similar to the story line in The Dragon's fury Sereis

[Semper Paratus]

Does this mean India is going to throw the Dalai Lama under the bus?

[Filibuster_60]

Why should we be concerned over the Sino-Indian rapprochement? I take it as an indication that both countries are trying to improve their security environment and expand their strategic options. They're basically telling each other, "Look, we probably can't be friends, but we sure as hell can't afford to be enemies." Normalization between them is for the most part welcome news.

[AM2000]

The Indians have already recognized Tibet as a part of China. China, on the other hand, is launching "a process to address" Indian concerns vis a vis Sikkim. I'd say India got shafted, perhaps willingly. I wonder why they did it...

[Filibuster_60]

I'd be surprised if the Chinese didn't consider asking India to give Dalai Lama the boot, but equally surprised if they actually mentioned it at the summit. Right now both countries need each other's non-hostility and their differences have to be handled very delicately.

[Filibuster_60]

India actually recognized Tibet as part of China well before the '62 war, so there's nothing unprecedented there. Even the Dalai Lama has told China he's not seeking full independence. On the other hand, for China to merely imply that India has sovereignty over Sikkim is quite a contrast to the uncompromising rhetoric of the Pakistanis over Kashmir. It's just that kind of flexibility, however superficial, that many Indians can probably appreciate after 14 years of never-ending strife with the Pakistanis.

[steveegg]

'Tis worth another tick on the WorryMeter™.

[steveegg]

Why should we be concerned over the Sino-Indian rapprochement? I take it as an indication that both countries are trying to improve their security environment and expand their strategic options. They're basically telling each other, "Look, we probably can't be friends, but we sure as hell can't afford to be enemies." Normalization between them is for the most part welcome news.

If we weren't the ChiCom's "class enemy", and this didn't have the effect of freeing up China's military-industrial machine from a back-door conflict (and also possibly making the defense of that back door of even greater depth using the massive populace of a new ally), I'd agree that it's nothing to be concerned about. However, because this does shift the biggest threat in South Asia from a threat to the ChiComs to an ally of theirs (and potentially a threat to the US if this rapproachment goes unanswered), there is a level of concern.

[mikeIII]

Why do you think india "got shafted" over Tibet? No other country or international agency gave a damn about Tibet, other than Richard Gere. Not even Budhist Japan. India had a running sore in it's relations with China over it, and, as I see it, it has finally come to it's senses. India got recognition over Sikkim and, maybe, it will get China to desist from supporting Pak. A good bargain, IMO.

[Filibuster_60]

However, because this does shift the biggest threat in South Asia from a threat to the ChiComs to an ally of theirs (and potentially a threat to the US if this rapproachment goes unanswered), there is a level of concern.

In fact it was China that had to answer something: They had to do something about the improving relations between us and India.

Let's place this in the larger context of India's grand strategy: They're smoothing out relations with all three major powers - US, Russia, China, and this greatly magnifies their bilateral leverage vis-a-vis each of them individually. They now sit right in the middle of the US-Russia-China strategic triangle. It's a foreign policy power play that's quite unprecedented in their history, something the Chinese must be in awe of.

[USMMA_83]

Bing, Bing, Bing....why do you think we only gave the dictator Musharraff $3 Billion with stings attached. Every other dictator we deal with gets hellavlot more with no strings attached.

[Jeff Head]

Because China is our ideological opponent.

Because we are moving our manufacturing and technological base as rapidly as we can offshore, and particularly to China, who as our ideological is thus being empowered to become not only an economic one, but eventually a military one.

Because India is in an extremley strategic position geo-politcally in the region and we need them much more in our own camp, than in China's.

There are many more.

It is a reason for concern, particularly if we do not offset it. Ultimately it could lead to conditions similar in nature to those that preceded world war II.

Just my opinion, but is based on having worked over in the far east and on the sub-continent as a consultant for companies doing major outsourcing to those very areas, and it is based on being a student of history.

Regards.

Jeff

[Jeff Head]

Exactly, that's an historical simialrity it could lead to.

[Jeff Head]

Yep, tis.

[gcruse]

SUM DROP GOO ????

LOL

[USMMA_83]

The Indians will never trust the Chinese. The distruss is too deep. The Chinese have India trapped. Burma, and Pakistan are always creating trouble on the borders and surrounding states. China has its navy parked in some Burmeese port listening in on a vital Indian base. What India needs is some breathing room. They just might have got that with the Chinese relenting on Sikkim.

[Filibuster_60]

I mentioned above that India wants good relations with all the big powers so it has more leverage over them individually. They already have better relations with Russia than either China or us. At the end of the day, the Indians are watching out for their interests not ours, and their interests are best served by diversifying their strategic options instead of joining any particular camp as a junior partner. That's a bit of realpolitik that nobody can change. Just because India's a democracy doesn't mean it's a natural ally, and while it's unlikely that it'll become our genuine ally, the prospect of them allying with China is considerably more farfetched.

[Filibuster_60]

You forgot to mention Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, two other neighboring countries that have shaky ties with India and have been courted by the Chinese to box it in. It's noteworthy that Pakistan and Bangladesh which used to be a single country both receive economic and military aid from China. On top of this is Nepal, where the Chinese have a double-whammy in their favor as there's a Maoist insurrection yet the royal family is essentially pro-Chinese.