Docs Wrangle Over SARS Death Rate

Wired News ^ | Apr. 21, 2003 | Kristen Philipkosk

[per loin]

As my charts and graphs were getting a bit large to stick into these threads, I put up a website that holds them. They are here.

[per loin]

Average hospital stay in Hong Kong is a bit over three weeks.

[aristeides]

Monday another day with many HK deaths, 6. But the number of people hospitalized continues to drop, what with the deaths and a reduced number of new cases.

[aristeides]

Any word on the state of the patients that are released?

[per loin]

Early on, a few stories mentioned dementia in recovered patients. I believe those were in reference to Guangdong.

[per loin]

I've seen that story on the nurse, but her case had been one of the severe ones. Dr Ho in Hong Kong, chief muckymuck of the hospital system, was unable to return to work after his three weeks in the hospital. he thought another week in bed would be needed. Have not heard more about him since.

[per loin]

Anybody here know the approximate world primate population?

[MalcolmS]

Toronto Statistics & Analysis

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/897356/posts

[riri]

Another question that I haven't seen addressed is the condition of those who have "recovered

Thats the giant pink elephant in the corner no one is talking about, IMO. I don't think anyone is really getting well.

I stand by my gut feeling. We are looking at an immune system destroyer. My worst fear is the survivors are but, the walking dead.

[Judith Anne]

If it permanently scars the lungs, it doesn't have to bother with the immune system, actually.

I know that the IGM immune response doesn't test positive until late in the SARS course...but it does eventually test positive. That's the basic science behind the China 1-hour test for SARS--too late to do any good, but there, nonetheless. Given that, I don't think it destroys the immune system.

[per loin]

I've read that the virus causes the immune system itself to attack the lungs. Is that true? If so, it seems a very Chinese strategy, turning the energy of the opponent's attack back on the opponent.

[Judith Anne]

That would be similar to allergic asthma, if I'm correct...

An inflammatory response to the virus mounted by the immune system...but in that case, I'd think that steroids like prednisone (which is used in combination with Ribavirin with some success in some cases) would be more effective than it has been...

[riri]

Time will tell. I hope I am wrong. I am by no stretch of the imagination knowledgeable.

Just my gut instinct.

[per loin]

Let me tap your expertise again. Six of Hong Kong's new cases today were health care workers. Given the reported maximum incubation period of 16 days, these people were infected after hong kong already had hospitalized over 800 people. Do you find it more likely that health care workers are still being infected, or that the incubation period may be longer.

[Judith Anne]

Either is possible, though I suspect that it's that health care workers are still being infected.

Another possibility is that the virus may linger inactive but infectious longer than was previously thought, and the health care workers were infected from incompletely disinfected surfaces.

[Judith Anne]

I have no special knowledge that any other nurse does not have, and I can be wrong. What I am offering here are my best guesses only.

[per loin]

I've read that it is now thought that the virus can 'linger' on surfaces for over 24 hours, rather than the 3 hours earlier thought. In a moist surrounding, would it likely linger longer than in a dry one?

[riri]

I've read that the virus causes the immune system itself to attack the lungs

I have read that also.

That said, I wonder if there are drugs that induce immune-system suppression.(out on a limb?)

Also, early on I remember reading about using antibodies from people who were recovering. I have not seen anything more on that, have you?

[per loin]

Not in the last few weeks. As I remember, there were too few antbodies available to treat any substantial number of victims.

[Judith Anne]

Sure. Prednisone is only one example.