How world let virus spread A tale of mistakes, missed opportunities, near misses

Toronto Star ^ | Apr. 19, 2003 | KEVIN DONOVAN

[Domestic Church]

Pity the parishes that will have these walking timebombs and their secondary contacts attending Easter Mass. OY VEY!

[Domestic Church]

Hoping and praying it stops around 9.5% and doesn't slowly inch up. 9.5% is a economic and cultural disaster in the waiting. We will never be the same if this isn't contained and isolated now.

[aristeides]

Health Canada reported a much lower rate than that yesterday:

At the present time, the case fatality rate in Canada is estimated at approximately 4.3 percent of probable or suspect cases (13 of 304 probable or suspect cases). Most of the case fatalities occurred in patients with underlying illness, and nearly all were elderly patients over the age of 70 years.

Source: Pro-MED.

[Domestic Church]

It might be related to it's lowering prostaglandins.

[aristeides]

That would be strange, since that effect seems to limit reproduction of viruses: Aspirin 'could tackle viruses'.

[Domestic Church]

That article was referencing CMV not coronavirus. I don't know the size differential between the two but there is a range among viruses and the fluid release effect might only work on viruses below a certain size while the lowered viral production worked on larger sizes as well.

When an anti-inflammatory functions it pulls the excess fluid out of the inflammed tissue into the lymph/circulatory system. It had been documented years ago (by one of the major periodicals that the common cold viruses are more virulent when aspirin is used because of the viral increase in the exudate.(Of couse this study might have been funded by the tylenol folks.) Even if the production of virus is lowered you still should have an increase (short term at least and related to size of virus I would imagine) of the already produced virus being shed through normal routes while this is occurring. The CMV might be too large to seep through.

[Judith Anne]

Or people taking steroids...

[riri]

Hey per loin, someone is using your charts for a projection over on another board with a link back to FR. Check it out.

www.clickit.com

[riri]

SARS Not Incurable Says Recovered Patients

Looks like more accounts from survivors. I think it is an Asian paper, not sure.

[per loin]

Kuul. Is he a regular here?

[Judith Anne]

Hey! Did that person ask your permission, per loin?

BTW, I told you that thanks to several of you, per loin in particular here, that FR has the best information out anywhere on the internet.

[CathyRyan]

PANDEMIC UNLIKELY

But the WHO said the threat of a global pandemic was dwindling.

"The vast majority of countries reporting probable SARS cases are dealing with a small number of imported cases," the WHO said in an update on its Web site at http://www.who.int.

"Experience has shown that when these cases are promptly detected, isolated, and managed according to strict procedures of infection control, further spread to hospital staff and family members either does not occur at all or results in a very small number of secondary infections," it said.

What is everyone's reaction to this?

[per loin]

I'm glad that the figures were useful to him, and like all info, once posted it belongs to whoever uses it.

[per loin]

I'm unsure that any epidemic has ever been stopped by an announcement.

[Judith Anne]

We certainly HOPE that's correct, Cathy. Sometimes diseases have a way of outwitting people. There is still a very low index of suspicion in the US. I know of NO intake in an ER that protects the staff initially seeing the patient.

Per loin, you are a very impressive person.

[CathyRyan]

You are right! Perloin is a true treasure. He has made outstanding contributions to these threads.

[per loin]

From UPI:

Sunnybrook Hospital, a major trauma center in Toronto, has closed its trauma unit and redirected ambulances after reporting a new cluster of about 12 possible cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome, all involving medical workers, Canadian Broadcasting Corp. reported Saturday.

CBC said there were four suspected cases of SARS at the facility and eight other cases being investigated. It's believed the medical staff were exposed to two SARS cases at the hospital.

"This is not an insurmountable setback," Sunnybrook infectious diseases specialist Dr. Andrew Simor told reporters at a news conference on Saturday. "This is a cluster that happened at a hospital setting, and my feeling is that it is generally somewhat easier to control things within the hospital setting," he said.

[CathyRyan]

ProMED has a new update 4/19

It is about the diagnostic tests

http://www.promedmail.org/pls/askus/f?p=2400:1001:62708409635019673::NO::F2400_P1001_BACK_PAGE,F2400_P1001_PUB_MAIL_ID:1000,21322

[Judith Anne]

Here's the deal--how many people have been met with ER personnel wearing gowns, N95 masks, and gloves when they walked in?

None, right?

That's how hospital personnel get it. And other people, who come in with broken bones and kitchen cuts, are taken care of by the ER health care workers who are in the process of coming down with SARS, maybe...