Gazette-TV9 Poll: Harkin Likely Will Get Reelected [IA Senate]

KCRG-TV ^ | 11/2/02 | N/A

[exit82]

Harkin is a dung heap.

[BlackRazor]

Poll Ping!

If you want on or off my poll ping list, let me know!

[jern]

put me on your list

[eddie willers]

Harkin's pretty well known and it's difficult to shake a lot of people's belief in him.”

I wouldn't vote for my mother if I saw her act as disgracefully as did Harkin at Wellstones's clown circus.

[jerod]

No news here. Harkin is liberal dolt, and Iowa will get what it deserves.

[jerod]

No news here. Harkin is liberal dolt, and Iowa will get what it deserves.

[alley cat]

Hey, now! No need to say it twice!

Here's ONE vote against him, anyway!

[Brimack34]

I am polled out!!!! The stupid polls in Mn. are rigged, voter fraud, Pundits everywhere saying what will happen when they have never been out of their little liberal wourld a new 2 week old son. I am even getting sick of Fox News. The only thing I like is talk radio.

[Digger]

Do you all understand why these socialist/dems get re-elected? Ya got to have a reason that's better than your opposition. There is not much difference in any of these "Two-Party Cartel" clowns.

[mysonsfuture]

I still think if all the Salier voters show up at the polls, Harkin is vulnerable. Anyone on the ground in Iowa with the real scoop?

[Iowa Granny]

Gazette Communications randomly called a little more than 1,000 registered voters.

Interesting that they didn't do a scientific poll and call "Likely Voters", rather than all those registered folks who only vote in Presidential years.

Within the last week I read an article here with an analysis of poll numbers,,, it said something about "if the incumbant is under 50% and the undecideds are more than 10% the incumbant is TOAST". Does anyone else remember reading this article, or understand how they figure the odds in a situation like this?

[Iowa Granny]

Put me on the poll ping list.

[BlackRazor]

Within the last week I read an article here with an analysis of poll numbers,,, it said something about "if the incumbant is under 50% and the undecideds are more than 10% the incumbant is TOAST". Does anyone else remember reading this article, or understand how they figure the odds in a situation like this?

It is conventional wisdom that undecided voters tend to split about 2-to-1 for the challenger. That is why an incumbent who polls under 50% this close to an election is considered vulnerable. I am currently analyzing past poll data to determine the validity of this rule of thumb.

For this particular poll, Harkin leads 47-30 with 16% undecided. If those 16% split 2-to-1 in favor of Ganske, then Harkin would end up winning the election about 52.3 to 40.7.

[AntiGuv]

I believe that what you're trying to say is that if the incumbent is under 50% and the challenger is within 10%, then the challenger has a better than even chance of winning (or something along those lines). In races with an incumbent, the challenger gets an average 68% of the undecideds. By contrast, in open seat races, the incumbent party candidate gets an average 52% of undecideds.

[Iowa Granny]

Anyone on the ground in Iowa with the real scoop?

I'm on the ground. Last night at the Bus Rally with Grassley, Ganske, & Gross and other statewides, they were saying we are within striking distance.

Rudi Gulliani was in Cedar Rapids this morning with Jim Leach, J.C. Watts was in Waterloo this morning with Ganske,, Watts and Gulliani did the tailgate thing before the Iowa Wisconsin game with Leach in tow.

Laura Bush was in Ankeny this morning with somebody, Cheney was in Western Iowa on Friday with Ganske,, and GW will be in Cedar Rapids on Monday with Ganske, Gross & Leach.

They are hoping for enough bounce to make it work.

[SamAdams76]

Was this state even in play? I don't think so. A pity, because Tom Harkin deserves to lose big based on his participation in last week's travesty alone.

[BlackRazor]

Was this state even in play? I don't think so.

Back in early summer, Harkin only led by about 9 points, which isn't all that great for an entrenched incumbent. With the right campaign, that number could have closed as Ganske improved his name ID statewide. Unfortunately, it never happened. It didn't hurt that with the Democrats being in control of the Senate, Harkin chairs the Agriculture Committee. In my opinion, that pretty much sealed this race.

[BlackRazor]

In races with an incumbent, the challenger gets an average 68% of the undecideds. By contrast, in open seat races, the incumbent party candidate gets an average 52% of undecideds.

Is there a source for those numbers, or are they based on your own research? How does the partisan makeup of a state influence the challenger's percentage of the split, if at all?

[Iowa Granny]

For this particular poll, Harkin leads 47-30 with 16% undecided.

I suspect this poll will turn out to be flawed. I really think the internal rolling polls are showing Greg to be in single digets.