Posted on 10/30/2002 8:05:24 AM PST by Einigkeit_Recht_Freiheit
You are correct with respect to any given series. For a fair coin "HHHHHHHHHH" is as likely as "HHTHTTTHTH". For distributions of results in the aggregate, however, the head-to-tail ratio should be about 1-to-1. (For a any roll of a pair of fair dice, they should total 7 about 1 out of every 6.) So based on the known properties of a coin, the probability of observing a series containing 10 heads (~.09%) is far less than the probability of observing a series containing 5 heads and 5 tails (~24.6%).
But this is not the issue when deciding whether chance events can result in complexity. You could make a character count of a computer program and list the relative frequencies of the characters, but that would tell you nothing about the nature of the program or its operation. It is the sequence that matters.
the other thing that needs to be considered is selection. Nature, for whatever reasons, favors certain sequences. It is as if a dice player could always keep his winnings and always rule losing tosses "invalid".
the "whatever reasons" part is not arbitrary, but is the subject of study.
I agree. Which is why I prefer Yahtzee to craps. My comments were directed towards the claim that rolling 54 thousand consecutive sevens with a pair of fair dice is consistent with craps. While it is true that a game of craps will often see dice rolls totalling seven, craps is also built around the probability of such an event occurring. While such a sequence is not outside the realm of possibility, is it well beyond the bounds of probability.
The Copenhagen Interpretation sort of points to the existance of God. Heck, if there wasn't a God how would the first pre-Cambrian sealife have appeared on earth?
If you look up, it's infinity.
If you look down, it's infinity.
If you look in, it's infinity.
If you look out. it's infinity.
If you look back. its infinity.
If you look forward, it's infinity
A pattern? No, of course not.
Ptolomey may have been on to something; but you didn't hear that here.
It's August and the tomatos are ripe.
Life is delicious for those w/ taste.
Thanks. That was my first post to FR quite a few years ago. Brings back memories.
(No more Olmert! No more Kadima! No more Oslo! )
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