Welcome to the Ideopolis. - A new Democrat Majority is Emerging!

The Boston Globe (not on Web Site- Paper Printed Edition Only) ^ | Sunday October 27,2002 | John B. Judis and Ruy Teixeira

[Torie]

Well, I think he adds up the cohorts that are Dem, and projects that those cohorts will increase their share of the pie. But of course it is more complex than that. Cohorts change their partisan votes as issues change, and the analysis totally misses the fairly rapid assimilation of immigrants over time (through acculturation, upward mobility and intermarriage), and the reversion of those gene pools towards the mean in most cases.

There is as we speak some evidence that the grip of the Dems on the black middle class is eroding a bit. Just why is a hard line right winger like Northrup of Kentucky pulling close to a quarter of the black vote? Why is Burns in Georgia pulling 20% against an incompetent black candidate? Why is Perry pulling 30% of the Hispanic vote against an Hispanic candidate? The main problem with the projection is that it depends on a static analysis. This is wrong with tax increase or cut scoring, and it is wrong here.

Getting the crystal ball right requires considerably more heavy lifting than this analysis affords, and the standard deviation of any prediction is very high. Indeed predicting future "history" from prior history is very dicey, and often, and perhaps even typically, not very fruitful, unless done with great caution.

[Torie]

Conservatives are aging and dying off; we're not replacing ourselves as fast as the paid breeding classes can produce new little dim-witted government dependents

That is exactly what was said 150 years ago, and has continued ever since. That's what my parents told me, and my grandparents told my parents, and so it goes. It has not worked out that way.

[TopQuark]

You have a miguided view of liberal education. It may not be your fault entirely, since such education has not been widley practiced in the U.S. since 1950s, but you should know at least what it is.

[Reaganwuzthebest]

Why is Perry pulling 30% of the Hispanic vote against an Hispanic candidate?

That means the Hispanic candidate is getting 70% of the vote. Republicans cannot win elections with such a lopsided share going to other side, especially as Hispanics begin to fill up more states in the West and Southwest.

Maybe in time if, a big if, immigration is slowed now like it was in 1924 the Republicans can pick up a bigger share of the Hispanic vote as they assimiliate. But if they continue to pour in by the millions, poor and uneducated, the Repubs are toast. Your formerly conservative state for example can expect to be liberal for generations to come thanks to neverending mass immigration. Even if a Republican manages to get elected, he will be a RINO, just slightly to the left of the socialist.

[wku man]

Heck, say it again, bro. It needs to be said over and over again, loud enough to be heard by Marc Racicot, RINOs, and most importantly, the Bush administration. They need to know our votes can't be taken for granted...they'll be sorry if they do.

Scouts Out! Cavalry Ho!

[Torie]

Actually, the GOP collapse in California is less due to the increase in Hispanics, than to its collapse among Anglos. In some races, the Pubbie is pulling a majority of the Hispanic vote, albeit the sample is small, such as Tihart is in Wichita according to the polls, and Northup is (again a tiny sample). Cornyn will probably pull 40% of the Hispanic vote. Things are moving before are very eyes.

[junta]

No, these guys do not even know their own propaganda. These "high tech" types are the first generation that received the full Frankfurt School indoctrination and while they might not be flaming radicals they morally gravitate to the Elites "tolerance" propaganda as long as the money flows. When the benefits of blabbing the lies cease a new alignment probably along the time tested lines of ethnicity and real issues will assume the place of the current set of lies.

[junta]

I'm sorry, you are very bright, but that post was a dinger. To say cultural issues will fall away is such a contradiction of human nature I fear that you have a secret plan to eliminate man from Earth. Has the rot of Marxism spread so deeply amongst Neo-cons that such statements are actually believed or are they talking points of tactical politics?

[junta]

bump

[Reaganwuzthebest]

Anglos are moving out of California in droves, mostly to Arizona and Colorado, leaving the die-hard liberals as a majority. As this article points out, once conservative states such as Nevada are shifting democratic thanks in part to immigration. The Republicans know this, so instead of getting it under control, they're in a pander war with the other side, a war they have no chance of winning unless they turn into them.

Sooner or later they're going to have to face the facts: they're importing their demise.

[Torie]

Politics used to be much more class driven in this country. Issues which become salient change over time, and it affects how the cohorts vote. I suspect cultural issues are fading as we speak.

[Torie]

Politics used to be much more class driven in this country. Issues which become salient change over time, and it affects how the cohorts vote. I suspect cultural issues are fading as we speak.

[junta]

The word "class" says alot.

[d101302]

That trend is because extended careers in academia, especially those protected by tenure, tend to foster the egotism that deludes one into believing one's magnificent intellect holds the solution to all the world's problems, just like your average liberal.

[d101302]

Spiritus Gladius signed up 2002-10-26.

Welcome to Free Republic!

[d101302]

That is exactly what was said 150 years ago, and has continued ever since. That's what my parents told me, and my grandparents told my parents, and so it goes. It has not worked out that way.

What!? The long term trend is towards bigger government.

Here's a simple question: Do you think the federal government is bigger now than it was in 1852?

[Torie]

Here is a theorem for you: Big government is generated more by technology by far than the differential fertility rates of the have nots versus the haves. I will leave you to ponder that one.

[js1138]

I have a suspicion that most immigrants are culturally and economically conservative. I don't picture them as supporting endless generations on welfare.

[AM2000]

It's not a theorem until you've proven it.

[Torie]

Postulate?