The lowest-tech atom bomb

MSNBC ^ | 10/14/02 | By Richard A. Muller

[kms61]

Do you even need computers? Since the work's already been done, would it be enough just to steal/buy the mathematical models themselves?

Art Bell (yeah, I know, tinfoil alert) had an author on last winter who was very pessimistic about containing WMD in the long term, say the next 50-100 years. When the technology gets so cheap and affordable that you can literally build a bomb in your garage, how do you stop the Unabombers/McVeighs/Islamic kooks of the world from blowing civilization, if not back to the stone age, at least back to the feudal age?

[kms61]

JMHO, but I think Iran may turn out to be less of a threat as long as we can contain them short term. I don't think the mullahs will be able to stop the democratic revolution that's already simmering there.

[Oztrich Boy]

they couldn't and weren't trying to make a Pu239 gun device;

It's true they couldn't make it, but early design work at Los Alamos until July 44 was on the Plutonium gun

Plutonium Complicates Early Gun Work

[taxcontrol]

Actually, they could in theory buy the plans. After they have a viable set of plans, making a bomb should'nt be too difficult - assuming the timing parts are available.

While I don't know Mr Bell, I tend to agree with his assertions. WMD will in short order be obtained by many different governments and NGO's shortly there after. I would estimate another 5 governments joining the nuclear club in the next 20 years (though most will be smart enough not to advertise the fact) and I would say you could start seeing a bomb in the hands of NGO's within 25 - 30 years. However, if there is an overthrow of a nuclear power, it could be within a month.

The principle problem for most bomb makers is how to obtain enough uranium and enrich it, without attracting the attention of authorities. We are not talking small quantities here. I have heard estimates that it takes a couple of tons of raw ore to make enough enriched uranium to make a bomb. Kinda hard to keep a pile of that size under a tarp.