CHINESE AIR FORCE TOWARDS 2015

Institute for Defence Studies & Analysis (India) ^ | October , 2000 | Dr. Srikanth Kondapalli

[robowombat]

And the bottom line is....

"Though there still persist several problems related to training of the pilots on advanced aircraft, strategic airlift of troops, allocation of resources and focus to air defence measures in the wake of the Gulf War of 1991, the PLAAF poses a confidant image with its modernization programme, of which it pursues with a vengeance. Efforts towards air superiority, punitive first strikes deep inside the enemy territories and so on are unmistakable in the PLAAF operational programme in the decades to come."

[Mo1]

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[swarthyguy]

The Dragon awakes...

[steveegg]

According to the Chinese PLAAF Officers Manual, published in June 1991, the history of the PLAAF is divided into three broad phases:

1. The first phase spanning from the establishment of the PLAAF in 1949 to mid 1960s when it was dependent on the Soviet assistance in air force strategic, tactical and technical principles;
2. The second phase from the late 1960s to mid-1980s coinciding with rift with the Soviet Union and self-reliance policy;
3. From the later part of the 1980s, the PLAAF entered its third phase of tremendous changes in strategic direction with modernisation as the “central” policy and fighting local wars as part of its research.

I have a revised 3-stage plan of the PLAAF:

1. During the first phase, from 1949 through the early '60s, the PLAAF relied completely on the Soviet Union.
2. The second phase, from the early '60s through the mid '80s, were the "dark ages", with old Soviet designs soldiering on.
3. The third phase, which began in the mid '80s, saw renewed use of modern Soviet/Russian designs with an eye of overwhelming Taiwan, the Philipines and everyone else with an interest in the South China Sea oil.

[YoungKentuckyConservative]

This will be the war of all wars. I give them twenty years to improve their military strength while we weaken ours amidst the liberal cancer. Then, America passes the torch of supremacy to the industrial capital of the world.

So it went with Rome.....so it will go with the United States. I pray we become more CONSERVATIVE and forward looking before I spend my later years in perile.

[robowombat]

More akin to the Annglo-German rivalry that was one of the key elements in setting the stage for WW1. China with large amounts of human capital and some natural resurces as in the case of the German Empire outsrips the US as the leading industrial state. As chinese strength grows so does its ambitions. They look beyond the immediate east Asian scene and wish to be accordedequal status with the US. In the case of Germany its idustries not only surpassed those of Britain but Germany emerged in the forefront of new technology development. Industrial chemicals, artificial fibers, optics, specialized steel and metal products became areas in which German companies owned the new patents. If China emerges as a serious rivla in the high tech arena in the next generation along with its size and potential power then the stage will be set for another Cold War with the clear possibility of a refight of the Great Pacific War of 1937-45.

[swarthyguy]

You're too pessimistic. The New Rome is just rising.
Here's a rather more postive viewpoint from the folks at www.orbat.com

-->...and that spurred by the defeat in Vietnam, Americans were planning not just to unequivocally make the 20th Century the American Century, but were planning to remake the world in their image for several more centuries.

-->Now, even your editor eschews any claim to prophecy. He cannot say how the American Global Empire will work out. Nonetheless, he can say he is not with the doubters and the naysayers. America has done extraordinary things to change the world in the last hundred years; your editor feels for the better. If now the Americans want to formally announce their new empire, well, he is not about to begrudge them the glory. They have earned it. A word to the doubters and naysayers, however. If you wouldn't persist in underrating the Americans, you wouldn't be caught by surprise at what's been happening for at least the last 20 years.

http://www.orbat.com/site/americagoestowar.html

[swarthyguy]

PingPong.

[YoungKentuckyConservative]

You're too pessimistic. The New Rome is just rising.

Again being pessimistic, I hope I'm wrong and you are right! ;) I don't like my outlook, I just know it's what I fear. I'll check that website out. Thanks for the link.

[spetznaz]

Do you know what is funny! I do not think that the Chinese stole military secrets (such as nuclear warhead miniturization tech and advanced targeting) from the US alone. There is a lot of factual evidence they must have done the same from the European nations (especially the UK or Germany) and from Israel. For example look at the following pictures. The first is of the Chinese J-10 jet fighter (a new Chinese 'design' supposed to be their first line fighter) and the second is the EuroFighter.

The J-10

The EuroFighter Typhoon

Do they not look the same? I think so!

And if you are wondering 'bout the innards of the plane this is how the J-10 was developed. Part of the J-10 (Jiang-10) frontline Chinese jet fighter was based on the Lavi fighter that the US and Israel were working on in the 80s, and when the Lavi was cancelled in '87 some (probably corrupt ...must be) Israeli guy decided to sell China one of the prototypes (together with the Israeli made ELM-2021 system for the J-10s radar and fire control). This, coupled with additional aviational expertise garnered from a single F-16 Pakistan (sold?) to China, plus a Russian AL31F (which by the way performed better than the American PW1120 originally slated for the 'original' Lavi) comprised the Chinese J-10.

In essence the Chinese must have been working overtime to get all that input ...from Russian engines and weapon systems (the missiles for the J-10 are top line Russian and Israeli missiles), Israeli tech (especially from the Lavi, plus the radar system and fire control), F-16 avionics (courtesy of Pakistan's F-16s that were bought from the US), and the exterior that seems to be a clone of the Eurofighter Typhoon (apart from the fact there is a very slight difference in the air inlets).

This makes me ask what the heck is going on.

Also how darn efficient is the Chinese spying agency! It must be either super efficient or US, Israeli and European agencies are corrupt or inept! Otherwise how can China acquire such esoteric tech ranging from the best US nuke tech to stealth tech that is supposed to be employed in their upcoming J-12 .....not to be confused with the above J-10 ....that is supposed to be fielded around 2007? Do you know what would be a shocker! What if the J-12 turned out to look like our US made F-22 Raptor! Obviously the Raptor would be better, but the J-12 would be the most lethal enemy we have (for example the J-10 may not be as good as the EuroFighter, but it is good enough to ensure the Brits do not fly Eurofighters against China with impunity. Luckily the F-22 can be able to kill botht he Eurofighter and J-10 easily, but the J-12 would be a good match for the F-22. The F-22 would still be able to defeat it but it would be a good match, and that is not nice. Unfair fights with the US in the advantage is the best thing for the US).

Anyways this should prove to be interesting. And what is even more interesting is i saw this analysis that said the best time for China to attack Taiwan would be around 2007 (that is when the Chinese military will have sufficient assymetrical warfare capabilities to viably engage the US military and keep it off the Taiwan strait. Note this does not mean China plans to win against the US ...it cannot. The game plan is to ensure that it threatens us with sufficient casualties that we stay away from aiding Taiwan. Imagine if a next generation SunBurn missile took out a US aircraft carrier? Politicians ..read Democrats ...and the families of the slain would demand why the heck we are helping Taiwan and bringing back US soldiers in bodybags ...and what would happen is that a 'Vietnam Effect' would occur where the impetus for war is stiffled). And all this will be conventional warfare since there is nothing China can do to negate the amazing ability of US nuclear weapons. Hence China would ensure that it makes the altercation strictly conventional, and by doing that it could (theoretically) manage to keep the US out of aiding Taiwan.

Anyways tis buildup by Taiwan should be quite interesting to watch.

Have a look at the other jet fighter the chinese have acquired: Su-30MK Beats F-15C 'Every Time'

Again the Sukhoi is no match for a F-22 or a F-35 (JSF). Also with it may have certain abilities that beat out a USAF F-15C ...but note US pilots are some of the best trained in the globe and coupled with US detection capability (eg AWACS) a US F-15C can be able to beat a Chinese flown SU-30! After all just having a better gun does not mean you will win a gun fight. In a air battle i would put my money on a US F-15C flown by a US pilot if it is facing a Chinese flown SU-30 (after all Chinese pilots are not as well trained as the Russians plus the Chinese do not ahve our type of detection techonology i.e the AWACS). However yet again the key factor for China is not to win against the US but to ensure they can keep us out of the fray and take over Taiwan.

I wonder whwta will happen.

[ComputationalComplexity]

Hi again, the raptors will go into active deployment by 2007-2008, thats probably why they'll move before then.

[Poohbah]

Do you know what is funny! I do not think that the Chinese stole military secrets (such as nuclear warhead miniturization tech and advanced targeting) from the US alone. There is a lot of factual evidence they must have done the same from the European nations (especially the UK or Germany) and from Israel. For example look at the following pictures. The first is of the Chinese J-10 jet fighter (a new Chinese 'design' supposed to be their first line fighter) and the second is the EuroFighter.

The J-10 pic is a Photoshopped image of a Eurofighter.

[steveegg]

If so, then it fooled FAS (not that it's all that hard to fool them :-)

[ComputationalComplexity]

Yep, I think I'll post some real pics from this new site I found at www.sinodefence.com

Darn, the webmaster disallowed right clicks!!!

[ComputationalComplexity]

http://www.sinodefence.com/airforce/aircraft/fighter/j10.asp

Go to this site folks for real J-10 pics.

[steveegg]

Regarding the J-10; the ChiComs apparently can't quite reverse-engineer things correctly. FAS says that the J-10 is likely to never enter service (even though I don't exactly trust FAS as a sole source, the fact that the PLAAF went for Sukhois suggests that they're right).

[ComputationalComplexity]

Serial production has already begun. I used to look to FAS as a valid source for aircraft procurement rates, but their numbers are way off. Try Janes, they're the best, but you have to subscribe. Anyway back to the point, they've already begun to mass produce the J-10.

[spetznaz]

The J-10 pic is a Photoshopped image of a Eurofighter.

The J-10 is not a photoshop image of a Eurofighter! There is footage of flying J-10s in China flying in formation. also several western agencies have shown concern over how the chinese managed to acquire the J-10 design (whihc is why i posted the info on the Lavi jet).

Anyways here are some more pics of the J-10. Unless the Chinese managed to design flying mockups i would say the J-10 does exist, and it does fly.

The following pictures are photos (released ofcourse)of the J-10, and some show J-10s parked on the ground and a couple of flying J-10s. The J-10 exists and is not some bogey-man plane.

[spetznaz]

Hi Computational Complexity. Missed you (i loved arguing with you ....it was a pleasure :D). Anyways on your point about them mass producing J-10s ....that is true. I just posted some pictures of more J-10s. Have a look.

[Poohbah]

The J-10 is not a photoshop image of a Eurofighter!

Do a search on Free Republic. This isn't the only J-10 thread, and the images that were posted make it clear that the J-10 image you led off with IS a Photoshopped image--the angle, weapons load, and overall layout are IDENTICAL.

The images you posted here look like they COULD be Photoshop work.