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SMALL POX AND HALLOWEEN CANDY- A short primer on viral disease transmission
Dr. Brian Kopp (proud2bRC)

Posted on 10/21/2001 10:34:13 AM PDT by Brian Kopp DPM

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To: Sabertooth
Why do we have to wait for another attack before we do the right thing?
221 posted on 10/21/2001 10:14:06 PM PDT by samtheman
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To: bonesmccoy
Our home schooling group is having an All Saints Day party. Each child dresses as their favorite Bible character or Saint (I have a case of elastic pre-tape, the stuff they put under athletic taping, and I'm going to wrap up my oldest as Lazarus coming out of the tomb, obeying the command of Jesus. He thinks its a funny idea...kind of a hybrid outfit.)

After this information, my wife is asking all the families to bring home made goodies.

At least I had Doxycycline and amoxicillin for anthrax.

I can't even get my hands on the smallpox vaccine for my family, even as a doctor.

Honestly, this has me rattled. But if an attack occurs by any vector, there's little we can do to stop it's spread.

That is why the vast majority of my preparation with and for my family is and always has been spiritual.

222 posted on 10/21/2001 10:20:41 PM PDT by Brian Kopp DPM
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To: proud2bRC
Sounds like you have fun things planned! Great!

I'm not rattled about the smallpox threat. The reason is that we should be able to obtain Vaccinia Immunoglobulin for transfusion in the initial kids. We'll know in 1-2 weeks if kids start appearing with symptoms. Don't forget the incubation time is 1-2 weeks.

If a large number of US children get exposed to any virus (like say Respiratory Syncytial, Adenovirus, Influenza, or Paraflu) the most likely time to spread the disease is during viremia (prior to the mounting of immunity). So, there wouldn't be much we could do about that phase. The issue is whether or not Secretary Thompson and DOD are ready to move large amounts of medical supplies from the manufacturers to our local facilities.

More importantly, the impact of these events on our local health care system would disable most hospitals and offices. This means that HMO contracted facilities will need a government bail-out to offset the cost of the operations (because the capitated system will perish in such an attack). Secretary Thompson and the Bush Administration need to pass legislation through Congress banning all forms of capitated contracting in the United States. Alternatively, a bail-out process needs to be created to directly pay physicians, clinics, medical groups, and hospitals for services rendered during the war from federal tax dollars. Without such system, the HMO insurance system will surely collapse under the weight of increased costs for extra tests as we attempt to monitor for biothreats. This is actually the observation which has me more concerned than the threat of small pox.
223 posted on 10/21/2001 10:40:51 PM PDT by bonesmccoy
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To: bonesmccoy
Secretary Thompson and the Bush Administration need to pass legislation through Congress banning all forms of capitated contracting in the United States

Amen, brother.

224 posted on 10/21/2001 10:43:19 PM PDT by Brian Kopp DPM
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To: bonesmccoy
Smallpox Vaccines Take the Spotlight After Years of Neglect; Companies Saw No Profit

Published: Oct 22, 2001

NEW YORK (AP) - In the highly profitable pharmaceutical business, vaccines have long been the low-rent cousin - never matching the profits or prominence of medicines.

That has changed significantly since Sept. 11. Now vaccines have got the attention, but it's unclear if dollars will follow.

New fears of bio-terrorism have led the government to announce it wants to purchase 300 million doses of smallpox vaccine, enough to inoculate every American against the deadly disease.

Many drug makers have shied away from making vaccines in the past; vaccines can be as costly as drugs to develop, but don't offer the same returns.

When the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention was seeking a firm to manufacture smallpox vaccine last year, it was spurned by major drug companies, and the $343 million contract for 40 million doses fell to a previously obscure British firm, Acambis.

Now more drug companies are offering their services, and the government said it would spend $509 million on additional doses. But that's hardly a windfall in an industry where sales are expected to reach $178 billion this year, according estimates by the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America.

The United States has 15 million doses of smallpox vaccine, and has ordered an additional 14 million from Acambis, on top of the original 40 million. The company now expects to have its first doses ready by 2002, two years earlier than originally planned.

But experts say much more is needed. In the wake of recent anthrax cases, concerns have grown about security at the Russian lab that has one of the two remaining smallpox virus samples.

"We couldn't contain an outbreak" said GiGi Kwik, a fellow at the John Hopkins Center for Civilian Biodefense Studies.

A smallpox epidemic would be much worse than an anthrax outbreak, because smallpox is contagious and more deadly than anthrax. Roughly 30 percent of those who contract smallpox die. A large portion of the U.S. population has never been vaccinated and no one knows if those inoculated have retained their immunity.

Smallpox vaccination stopped in the United States in 1972, and the disease was eradicated by 1980. That meant many major pharmaceutical companies stopped producing the vaccine because it wasn't considered a major public health threat, and no market was foreseen.

Other factors also kept drug companies from making vaccines for smallpox or other bio-terrorist threats such as Ebola.

Lehman Brothers analyst Tony Butler estimates the gross margin on a drug is about 90 percent compared to 70 percent to 80 percent for a vaccine. Drugs also generate more sales - medicines are often taken two and three times daily for years. Vaccines are typically given one to five times over a lifetime.

Butler said it's difficult for vaccine developers to choose promising candidates. Companies must determine if the demand for a vaccine is great enough, or if the affected population could afford the treatment. The same is true for drugs, but medicines are given to sick people while vaccines are given to healthy people.

"You know who should get a cancer drug, but who should really get the vaccine?" asked Butler.

In addition, vaccines can have side effects that pose risk of litigation. Experts say if healthy people get sick after taking a vaccine they are much more likely to win juror sympathy than a sick person developing complications from a drug.

Lawsuits by parents who assert their children were hurt by vaccines were so widespread that in 1988 the government set up the National Vaccine Injury Compensation Program to handle the complaints.

"When an individual is sick and seeks treatment there is a certain amount of risk associated with the treatment. The risk assessment is totally different with a healthy person," said Dr. Adel Mahmoud, president of Merck & Co.'s vaccine division.

Sen. Edward Kennedy, D-Mass., is working on a massive bioterrorism package worth $5 billion to $10 billion. That includes money to hasten vaccine production and ease antitrust restrictions for drug companies.

"There is just so much to do," said Kwik. "There was not a real interest in this because there was no market. My impression is that the drug companies don't do anything unless there is a profit."

But others have a more optimistic view. Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told NBC's "Meet the Press" on Sunday that the government could have enough vaccine for everyone in the nation within six to 12 months.

225 posted on 10/21/2001 10:49:54 PM PDT by Brian Kopp DPM
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To: Don Joe
Thank you for your enlightening reply.
"110 posted on 10/21/01 2:26 PM Pacific by Don Joe"

Should the "candy" situation be as bad as you seem to believe, my thoughts will be the last thing that upsets you.

226 posted on 10/22/2001 2:36:14 AM PDT by G.Mason
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To: proud2bRC
Re:"A coward dies many times.....A brave man only once"

My reference to the above has been interpreted in a way unintended by myself.

I was stating.....we can tremble with fear at the drop of a hat, or we can look at, read, listen and evaluate this situation as we do all others affecting our lives and make a rational decision on what action to take.

If we are to live life free and to the fullest, we must face certain realities, for instance....travelling by automobile is the most dangerous way one can move about. Do we worry when we get in the car?

I hope you get my drift.

Re:" I don't see many doctors putting their names and reputations on the line here in an effort to alert people of a serious threat."

Doctors, lawyers, politicians are all human and subject to the same afflictions of we "common folk" . That's a moot point.

Thanks for the Aluminum Foil Deflector Beanie (AFDB) instructions. Great job.

Is it patented?

227 posted on 10/22/2001 3:03:00 AM PDT by G.Mason
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To: TheDon
Perhaps they realized the jig was up on the poison the candy idea, and that Middle Eastern types with lots of candy was not a good idea, so they were taking it back...never mind. ;)

I like it! I hope you're right. :)

228 posted on 10/22/2001 4:55:31 AM PDT by Snowy
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To: Sabertooth
I assume by "weapons grade" smallpox, one is referring to a virus that has been manipulated genetically, so that it would not be recognized by the body's immune system, even if vaccinated with standard smallpox vaccine. I think this is highly improbable. One could cause enough damage if regular smallpox was introduced on a broad basis, before the health departments could mobilize and vaccinate the populace. As I mentioned before, it is theoretically possible to spread smallpox via fomites, as it has been done through the ages dating back to ancient Egypt.
229 posted on 10/22/2001 6:33:37 AM PDT by SC DOC
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To: glock rocks
Some of us are enhanced traditionalists:


230 posted on 10/22/2001 6:46:39 AM PDT by Don Joe
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To: SLB
This should be a cause for concern and care. It may be nothing but it may be significant. I for one am quite thankful that it is being investigated. As for all the other means of disseminating smallpox I presume they would be workable. The most infamous case of smallpox being used as a weapon was when General Braddock diistributed the blankets from smallpox victims to Indian tribes. the resultant epidemic was far more deadly than any actual military actions undertook against these tribes. I presume there are a number of days that the virus remains active and that the CDC website would have the detained information.

Stay well - Stay safe- Stay armed - Yorktown

231 posted on 10/22/2001 7:04:25 AM PDT by harpseal
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To: TheDon
"Then again, as a Cosco spokesman said, it is not uncommon for people to purchase large amounts of candy. And no doubt, people do return the candy on occasion. I think it is a little far fetched to think that returned candy will have been opened, hosed down with small pox, anthrax, etc. then returned to the bag without someone noticing the bag was opened and resealed. This is where the hysteria I'm referring to comes into play."

You're pissing up the wrong rope. Take your sick message to the FBI, since they are taking this situation seriously.

"So, rather than getting hysterical, let your kids go out and enjoy Halloween!"

Your bogus accusation of "hysteria" is countered with a mega-dose of contempt -- and, a suggestion that since cars, trucks, and busses are fantastic devices that make a comfortable, modern life possible, you put your money where your mouth is. Rather than getting hysterical, let your kids go play in the traffic.

How dare you try to shame people into playing Arab Roulette with their children's lives. How f'n dare you.

232 posted on 10/22/2001 7:10:05 AM PDT by Don Joe
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To: Sabertooth
"The FBI is holding one of the buyers."

And, they can't account for the whereabouts of $80,000 worth of candy.

233 posted on 10/22/2001 7:11:18 AM PDT by Don Joe
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To: SC DOC
I think the terms "weapons grade" and "weaponized" are pretty amorphous, ranging from milling to a 1 to 5 micron range, to genetic manipulation, to the anthrax delivery system involved.

I've seen wheels-a-spinnning on several threads over this semantic impasse.

Guess it burns calories.

234 posted on 10/22/2001 7:11:55 AM PDT by Sabertooth
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To: Stefan Stackhouse
"Most of us over 35 or so have been vaccinated, and while this was long enough ago that we might get sick, Smallpox would not kill us."

From my understanding after hearing a health expert on Fox last week or so, the vaccinations any of us received prior to the 80's was only good for approximately 12 years. He specifically said that they expect none of them to be good anymore.

235 posted on 10/22/2001 7:20:02 AM PDT by callisto
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To: NotJustAnotherPrettyFace
I read it in earlier threads on this same subject. I could only find this one from this thread and this one from an earlier thread . I can't find the original post to which they refer.
236 posted on 10/22/2001 7:30:49 AM PDT by snorkeler
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To: Sabertooth
Sabertooth - I'm replying to you because you said you've read much about the vaccinations. Do you remember reading anywhere that one has to have the vaccination scar? I was sure I was vaccinated (born 1961) but I cannot find a scar for it! Everything I have read seems to indicate the scar is "proof" of it... and it's starting to make me wonder if I really was vaccinated!

Thanks for any info you might have!

237 posted on 10/22/2001 8:18:42 AM PDT by RightFin
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To: RightFin
You should have been vaccinated if you were born in 1961. Your scar might be faded, but its probably on your left shoulder.

Why don't you check your pediatric records?

Check this excellent FReeper thread for more info.

238 posted on 10/22/2001 8:32:39 AM PDT by Sabertooth
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To: Father Wu
Already de-bunked. Keep up dude.
239 posted on 10/22/2001 8:46:10 AM PDT by Republic of Texas
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To: Sabertooth
Thanks for that link - I'd missed that one somehow.

I have my mother checking records for me -- actually, I'm just curious at this point... my hubby has the scar and I don't, yet I kinda sorta remember receiving a 2nd smallpox vac in the early 70's and the nurse commenting on my previous one. I think we were re-vaccinated because we were moving overseas. (Dad was a KC-135 pilot so we moved a lot.) Also had to get a cholera shot - and that was awful! Very painful...

Thanks again!

240 posted on 10/22/2001 9:26:57 AM PDT by RightFin
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