Posted on 08/29/2024 7:49:20 PM PDT by lasereye
📌
Same guy said Trump had a 2% chance of winning in 2016
I’m not following....it looks like dingbat is ahead. What am I missing?
his model adjusts for an expected bump near each candidates convention. She was always going to go down now, just like Trump did after his convention.
The model will get past that adjustment in a few weeks
Donald J. Trump is a truly unpredictable factor - on so many levels.
Only Trump can defeat Trump. All the other competition is way behind.
Except when he makes an entirely unforced error.
Suppose its an even electoral college split?
Per the Constitution, who casts the tie breaker vote?
IIRC, it is the Vice President...
Buyer’s remorse, from the Dem side?
Just like the dish soap, Joy was not expected to last forever.It whips up into a bubbly cascade of clouds and foam, only to wash away with a light rinse.
Very soon, all the Joy has gone, swirling quickly down the drain. Worst part? You are left feeling more dirty after than before.
“ Only Trump can defeat Trump.”
Only election fraud can defeat Trump.
30%, not 2%.
If Trump has the higher probability of winning the EC, why does he show Harris with more EVs?
He is still lying about the polls.
I have been emptying buckets and diapers full of joy
You are mostly correct, for the present, but the long term trajectory for Trump appears to be building up steam again, while the extended outlook for Kammy appears to be sinking.
We shall see what happens. Of course, there will be a series of October Surprises meant to throw the momentum back into her lap. These last minute tactics are usually powered by cullchaos and short term emotions.
Good question.
Being the target of election fraud is not a defeat.
It is the people who suffered the defeat.
And, as Nate Silver is keen to remind everyone, 2% is not 0%.
Right. How is Trump ahead if harris is predicted to get >270 EVs?
No it would be the new House of Representatives (those elected in November). But it is not a straight vote of the 425 House members, it is a vote by each state of their House members. So while Democrats may have something 40+ members of the House from California, their majority only leads to one vote for Kamala in the House, while the one assumed Republican rep from Wyoming gets an equal vote for Trump. The Vice President is elected in a similar matter by the Senate .
Didn’t you learn that the new House breaks the tie?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.