Posted on 08/14/2024 8:37:37 AM PDT by ChicagoConservative27
I will agree that IPSOS polling is Sh!t. D+6 polling, ridiculous. Cant comment on the others.
“polling errors” = “intentional deception”
They didn’t factor in millions of illegals voting Dem.
To the extent they over sample Democrats, that’s probably intentional. But there is another source of error: the shy Trump voter, who won’t answer pollsters or will lie to avoid conflict with the pollster.
Shhh.. don’t tell them.. let the fools believe that the most unpopular VP in american history is somehow now the second coming...
I mean we know they are gullible they fell for a dementia patient being a competent and capable person for more than 5 years because they were told so.
Yep. Its all pollsters making guesses as to the makeup of the voting public. I’m sure some demoralized Dems did come home once Biden ‘dropped out’ but beyond that, nothing that has gone on says Trump’s support itself should have changed since Harris entered the race.
I think Harris has now reached the absolute maximum of her favorability potential in the polls, thanks to the “honeymoon effect” and the change of narrative in the media that produced. The end of Biden’s power artificially propelled Harris to high polling levels. People were celebrating the fact that Biden isn’t continuing, that doesn’t mean they like Harris... She just surfed on the end of Biden effect. Nothing more.
And here is the thing... I don’t think there is any headroom left for her to “grow” any further in favorability. Trump can slowly begin his comeback from in the polls from now on. If he wins the debate with Harris in September, he has a good chance of winning. However... in order to stay vigilant and prepared, its better to imagine this race as a very close one.
Its all intentional... They need to make it seem like there is a race here when there isn’t one.
This is all about trying to get/keep their base engaged so they don’t get massacred down ballot they know the WH is lost.
Its all intentional... They need to make it seem like there is a race here when there isn’t one.
This is all about trying to get/keep their base engaged so they don’t get massacred down ballot they know the WH is lost.
To me this is one of the big unanswered questions about this election - have the polling organizations made any effort to more accurately capture Trump’s true level of support? They underestimated his popular vote share in both 2016 and 2020. The RCP average in 2016 right before the election was Clinton +3.2, with the actual result being +2.1. In 2020 it was even worse, with Biden at +7.2 and the actual result +4.5.
Hard to know if this will continue. Would not want to bet on it, but seems more likely than not to continue.
If Harris goes up to +3 or better in the horserace polling I think Trump is in trouble.
“CNN’s Enten: Trump Still Leads if 2016, 2020 Polling Errors Factored In”
and don’t forget to factor in fake polls from Dipshite U. and Inderpedant Polling and such ...
Geez! I thought the cackling hyena was leading by five points? I guess the cracks are beginning to be revealed. Elon Musk and Trump’s sit down 🔥 firechat was the pivot point I believe in this election. The millions in America heard maybe for the first time Trump speak with such a heartfelt description of what he wants for America and the other millions around the world also heard a man speak with hope in his voice. That was one of the best Radio(😊) interviews in history, regardless of the technical problems and the way the DDS manipulated his voice he spoke from the heart and that is what counts! 73 million people and counting I heard 100 million I don’t know but I do know he spoke from the heart and many people heard it and that’s why the media they’re going absolutely nuts!
If you haven’t seen the AI rendition of Trump and Musk dancing to ‘Stayin’ Alive’ then you have missed your laughing out loud moment of the day!
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1823742501884453312
Trump has posted it on Truth Social and Musk has posted it on X.
Well I’ve looked at the polling for 2016, but not 2020. Yes, Trump is doing better in the polls at this stage than he was in 2016, in fact significantly better.
If it is just based on voters, no way to over come the California and NYC numbers. The important thing is the swing states.
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