Nissan announces a slate of new models by 2026, over half of which will be EVs

“Hydrogen will replace EVs and the fascist governments will realize too late to stop it. Just like they tried to force fluorescent bulbs down our throats while LED was about to steamroll them.”

It takes 55.2kWh to make a Kg of Hydrogen that has the LHV equal too one gallon of gasoline. A hydrogen ICE will at most convert 25% into torque used for motion. A hybrid ICE electric hybrid would be in the 38% Range. A 5 passenger sedan with a hydrogen ICE will go 30 miles in the city and maybe 40 miles on the motorway. For the hybrid vers, 65 city, 55 hwy is to be expected.

That same 55.2kWh will put 50 kWh to the wheels of a five passenger sedan EV at 180wh mile hwy and 130wh mile city A.C. Blasting those are real number I have seen personally in a Model 3 Tesla in Houston grid lock in July. So 50kWh / 0.130kWh/mi = 384 miles

From a resource management view it’s 12 times more efficient to use the electricity directly in a EV.

I think it’s largely due to people who live rural or exurban and view the world as that way for everyone. The I live 30,50, whatever miles from a Wal-Mart or grocery store. That’s so far out the norm for urban and even suburban areas where you are a mile at most to a grocery store and Wal-Mart sets a 3 to 5 mile radius of penetration for suburban areas.

The truth is the USA is a urban nation with 75 percent of our population living in urban counties and only 25% in rural areas or exurban per the US census. This heavily skews the population needs to urban patterns.

This is why 94% of trip distance for any and all trips is under 30 miles.Only 6% of trips are longer than 30 miles.

https://afdc.energy.gov/data/mobile/10318

This pairs with the avg commute being 24 miles per day. With the average American only driving 13,500 miles in a year. The fleet avg fuel economy for LDV is 25 mpg so the avg driver is using 530 gallons per year or less since sedans get in the 30s and 40s mpg now. SUVs and pick-up trucks drag the whole LDV fleet down significantly.

https://afdc.energy.gov/data/mobile/10317

So for the vast majority of as in the 75% of 330 million that live in urban counties there is no need for 400+ mile range in a vehicle. The average person drives a 400+ mile one day distnace less than two times per year. Rental vehicles make sense for those two trips. Every other trip ,day or commute is well under 100 miles as the data shows 96% are under 30 miles.

A model 3 is $38,000 before any subsidy today. That is for the 325 mile range version with fire proof LFP cells. Brand new used with 11k miles out of a 120,000 mile warranty can be had for $27,000. So it’s already cheaper to buy a new 5 passenger EV than a 5 passenger sedan such as a Camry or BMW 3 series the Tesla has better tech and higher luxury than a Camry and equal luxury to a BMW 3.

“As of March 2023, the average price of a new car is $48,008, according to Kelley Blue Book.”

The real issue is gasoline superusers. Those are the ones who would need hybrids or hydrogen or better yet electro synthetic fuels with 500+ mile ranges. Those kinds of range is not used by the day to day urbanites nor suburbanites.

“Drivers are highly unequal in their gasoline consumption. The drivers in the top 10% of gasoline consumption each use upwards of 1,000 gallons of gasoline each year.

Collectively Gasoline Superusers burn nearly one-third of all U.S. gasoline consumed in the U.S. by light duty vehicles. This is more than the bottom 60% of users combined. The top 20% of gasoline users burn 48%.” -Coltura

“I seldom hear anyone say that we don’t have the electrical infrastructure to handle recharging 100 million electric cars every day.”

That’s because 100 million cars won’t need to be charged every day. Virtually no one drives 300+ miles per day. The vast majority of Americans are in cities 75% of the population. 96% of all trips are under 30 miles. The typical urbanite will need a charge one a week or less. The avg total yearly distance is 13,500 miles in a large Tesla S the full size not the smaller model 3 a person would need 3375 kWh over a years time to cover that distance or 9.3 kWh per day on average. That’s equal to running a home A.C. Unit for one hour or a large cloths dryer for the same hour. Think 50 amp 240v load for 45 mins.

The real issue is the top 20% of drivers by miles per year use 48% of the gasoline. That is where the bulk of the use is.

I was recently in Shanghai a city where 99% of people live in high rise , condos or apartments single family homes are nonexistent. Half of all new car sales are EVs because density plus short commuting distances means electricity is much cheaper than petrol.

There was L2 AC chargers everywhere all down the rows of parking deck spots and all over the apartment complex and condo lots along the outer rows. The Chinese like the Europeans use 220v single phase and 380V three phase directly to every point of use not the 1800s era 120/240 split phase the USA is cursed with. Each one of those L2 poles was just a dumb terminal that turns the relays on via an app to bill the user the cable was carrying 380v three phase or 230v single phase natively.

This is a super cheap set up the BYD we were in recognised 3 phase and chose the 22.2 Kw rate that’s a full charge in 4 hours or less overnight. DC fast chargers were also all over the place with 250 kw that will take a BYD from 20/80% in 20 min or so. The BYD we were in looked just like a BMW 5 series they copied the design shamelessly.

The point is the argument there is no way high rise,condo or apartment people can have EVs is flat out false the Chinese prove that wrong in spades. The ingredients for success are density, short trip distances <100km and access weekly to a L2 or HVDC charger.

Here in the USA while single family homes are cursed with the archaic 120/240 split phase. Every post 1980s apartment and condo building by code has 208v WYE three phase which conveniently phase to neutral is 120v single phase. Those same super cheap L2 poles can be run at 22.2Kw off 208v WYE already on site by code. If the apartment or condo has an elevator then it will also have by code 277/480v 3Ph that’s what the elevator motors run off. Every office building in the USA also will have by code 277/480v 3Ph things get interesting once you have 277/480 on site L2 dumb poles can use single phase to neutral 277v for 22.2kw up to 80amp limit of CCS standard there is no three phase in the USA L2 EVSE plug standards. China makes 30,50,60 portable fast DC chargers that use 380/480v 3ph natively of course Tesla and EVGO et al. Have pedestal superchargers that start at 50kw and go to.350kw all eat 480v/3Ph at the mains.

So every condo,apartment has at least L2 voltages on site and every office building with a elevator has 480 on site and a good number of high rise condos do too. For urbanites having access once a week to a L2 is enough for their needs. An avg driver will need 63kWh per week to cover the average 13,500 miles they drive a year or less. That’s three hours a week at an L2 or 15 min at a 250kw fast DC. This is nearly identical to the usage pattern of a ICE car for the same person who goes to the gas station once a week. This means a condo unit with 100 residents each having a EV could share 15 L2 spots each using one of those spots over night once a week. Given it only takes 3 hours at the L2 spot you could have a price incentive to move the vehicle after it is at 80% for NMC or 100% for LFP. Then you get eight charge opportunities per L2 spot per day not one. This is exactly what I saw in China once the car is full the app buzzss and move or pay by the minute for the spot.

This is what will replace petrol and is already in China by the day. China has 380v everywhere their retail ,residential,small office , condo power is all three phase 230/380V WYE three phase.

60kw will fill a small BYD in half an hour. The Tesla Model 3 in 45 min and a full sized BYD or Tesla S in just over an hour. The average person in the USA would need to see one of these once a week or less.

This is a HOA cost of $5600 ish per plug each one servicing a EV once per hour gives a 8 or 12 opportunities in a work day plus one more over night. Times than two plugs per pedestal. So 17 or 25 EVs per day.

Commercial power sells in Texas for 6 cents per kWh fast DC rates are 43 cents per kWh last I looked at EVGo. For a netrev of 37 cents per kWh. That works out to $22.2 per hour per plug net revenue. At 13 hours a day in revenue generating potential allowing the last EV to stay overnight once the charge stops for convenience at no holding charge. That’s $577 per day in charging revenue.

More realistically you have a for sure overnight user every day and two or three one hour sessions during the day from off site EV users or remote workers living in the condo units. Even then at 3 hours per day over two plugs $132 a day in netrev. That’s $34,632 a year from that single pedestal having 3 hours of charging 5 days a week the “work” week. Weekends would assume people home from their commutes and needing charges so the full 25 charges per day or 50 over two days. 50 charges 50 weekends per year. Is $111,000 in net revenue. That’s over $145,000 a year from that single pedestal. That doesn’t include the 10% charger to pack loss so for a net gain in the pack of 60kWh you actually sell 66kWh from the pedestal so add in another $14,500 for a total of $159,500. This is from a $11,200 investment plus wiring to the three phase on-site power.

Even stringing in a new service drop from the 4.16kV, 7.2kV, 12.47kV, 13.2kV, 14.4kV power lines down via directly buried HV AC aluminum cables in triplex to a green transformer box we all know the green curb side box those are 167 or 250 KVA three phase to 277/480WYE with 250KVA supports two pedestals at 120kw each.

Medium Voltage 250kva run $32,000 and the aluminum wires are $4.5 per foot with three wires needed for delta 3 phase to the green box.’m from the green box to the pedestals also aluminum at $6 per foot but you only need ten feet or so to the curbs.

So now as the HOA you buy two pedestals and double your net revenue $319,000 from two pedestals your payback time is in months and the transformer will last for two decades and the pedestals have a ten year or longer lifetime.

Now you know why the whole world is going EV. Those who own the chargers will replace Exxon Chevron and take it to the bank.

I am sure you could ask them to make these work with 277/480V WYE or 208V pure delta three phase. 277/480 is already at every office building with a full sized commercial elevator, every Wal-Mart or retail store with commercial 277v lighting and every condo building over 4 floors and a two door elevator same for apartments over 5 stories. Short stack apartments are going to have 208v on site in three phase.

Any site that has capacity on the transformer side of at least 120kva has $159K in revenue waiting for them. Even adding a whole new drop and transformer pad the ROI is in the months time frame. The local electric co will do a new 500 foot three phase medium 7200V or 12kv drop for $12,500 before the current transformer shortage a 250kva was $5000 not $32,000

https://www.aliexpress.us/item/3256806063865514.html

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