Posted on 01/15/2024 10:44:34 AM PST by SeekAndFind
Ron DeSantis will win Iowa.
He secured the endorsements of their governor and the most influential evangelical voice in Iowa, and Iowa is the largest evangelical state in the country.
In 2016, Trump got 22% of the evangelical vote and lost to Ted Cruz, Trump won’t get 22% of the evangelical vote this time.
And beside all this, DeSantis has the best and largest ground game of the candidates running, having visited all 99 counties in Iowa, not counting an army of volunteers knocking on doors and making phone calls. Even his wife and mother were knocking on doors and connecting with the people.
Tonight an actual conservative will win Iowa.
Best of luck to both Trump and DeSantis, seriously. But this is not 1988 when Pat Robertson came in a close second. Trump is a technical incumbent, i.e. this is uncharted territory. Plus people are PO-ed about the 2020 election. They’ve polled this caucus to the nth degree, and I’d be surprised if the polls are far wrong.
As for Haley, she's got as much chance of getting elected as Christie or Pence--and they're not even running.
“To her credit, Nikki Haley has been steadily eating away at DeSantis’ comfortable second-place position since the fall”
what credit? she’s simply the only RINO/GOPe/DeepState candidate left standing ... she could have just as easily been Alfred E. Newman and gotten the same number of votes ...
“long haul” will last until his money dries up ... it’s difficult to run a campaign when the only thing you can afford for transportation is a skateboard and have to stay in no-tell motels ...
“I have it on some authority”
sure you do ... WHAT “authority”? ... the short order cook on the midnight shift at the local Waffle House?
Heels will not even be able to win Florida against President Trump. Even before bootgate his popularity was in a nose-dive. Can anyone remember such a promising up and coming politician manage to trash his career in such a short period of time without a sex scandal or serious criminal conviction?
It’s just media narrative. If he were to get the normal bump by winning it’d be over and they can’t have that.
The uniparty’s attempt to astroturf Haley now that that game plan has failed with Desantis is Comical..
The poll a few weeks back showing Haley winning NH was grade a laughable... She’s down 17 or something in NH.. that push poll nonsense CNN poll showing her within 7 and those other 2 by the same group both showing her within 4 are just there to make her average look better than it is, they know damned well she’s down 15 points or more.
There are only 4 polls taken in the last 6 weeks that show her under double digits, and they are all laughable...
1 showing her within 3, 2 showing her with 4 and hten the CNN showing her with 7
The remainder have her down 13 points or more, and often MUCH MUCH more... Haley is not going to close the gap in NH by next Tuesday, and they know it. They are trying desperately to try to create reality, hoping they can get her close to try to create some SURGE narrative to keep her alive... then of course go to the NV primaries which mean NOTHING and Trump isn’t even on the primary ballot on 2/6 because there are no electors granted of that stupid pointless thing... So Haley ill likely win it.. only to have Trump take the caucuses and the electors 2 days later, but the press will still latch onto it trying to spin some narrative that Haley is surgin and Trump is in trouble...
They want that narrative for 2 weeks going into the next Primary of SC.. .which is Haleys home state, they are hoping beyond hope that if they can play that narrative up they can get her a win there and stop Trump...
IT AIN’T GONNA HAPPEN... but mark my words they are going to push poll, and spin with every breath they have between NH and SC to try to make it so...
They are going to do everything they can to try to convince you, assuming Haley comes out of NH in any way they can make it seem “strong” that SC will be her moment.... and it isn’t going to happen.
The hundreds of millions so far that have been WASTED on these establishment candidates, could have been going to something meaningful... never ever forget that... my best estimation so far, is that Desantis and Haley and Cristie backers have burned at least 100-250 Million dollars in cash just trying to win a caucus and a primary, most of it spent in just 2 states..
They will likely burn another 100M more between now and Feb 26th or whatever the SC primary date is... all for naught.
Desantis will be gone by the FL primary at the latest.
If not he will suffer the humiliation of being crushed as the sitting governor in his own state. There will be no coming back ever from that humiliation.. so his absolute last date in the race is 3/18.
If he stays in through the Florida primary, and loses by 20-30 points or more, and that’s whats going to happen, that will be how he’s going to be remembered no matter what else happens to him.. You can’t shake that humiliation off, not even in American politics.
You’ll basically left being the Rick Santorum for the rest of your political life... He lost his re-election by 17.5 points... the greatest margin of an incumbent losing a Senate seat in probably the last 50 years if not more.. You don’t come back from something like that.. you get to be some fringe candidate in presidential primaries trying to keep your name out there, but you are done.
Desantis is absolutely DONE if he stays in through FL primary.... You can’t come back, ever from being the guy, who as sitting governor, lost your parties primary by 30 points or more... and that’s what is going to happen to him if he is still officially in the race on 3/19.
We shall see, Desantis has made some very poor decisions around this race... so maybe I am giving him too much credit.... but I just don’t see how he doesn’t pull out before suffering that humiliation.
I understand your points—and in a normal year they would be valid.
I am convinced DeSantis has some Deep State types whispering in his ear that Donald Trump will be gone—one way or the other.
I am not kidding—I think that is what he is being told.
RE: Ron DeSantis will win Iowa.
I will mark your prediction and get back to you tomorrow.
Oh I’m sure they have been whispering that in his ear from the
Start but he’s done
RE: Ron DeSantis will win Iowa. He secured the endorsements of their governor and the most influential evangelical voice in Iowa, and Iowa is the largest evangelical state in the country.
I didn’t even have to wait for tomorrow.
See here:
https://dailycaller.com/2024/01/15/trump-dominates-red-state-caucus/
TRUMP WINS IOWA CAUCUS BY A LANDSLIDE
What happened to the governor’s endoresdement and the much vaunted Evangelical Voice? Apparently the Evangelicals refuse to listen to that voice and preferred to vote for the man who has a KNOWN RECORD of representing evangelical concerns.
As for DeSantis, he came in 3rd behind Haley, who came in 37% behind Trump. Herck, you can add DeSantis’ and Haley’s votes and they would not even be equal to Trump’s.
LOL!
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