Posted on 09/14/2023 5:34:57 PM PDT by marcusmaximus
;-D
There were Japanese people who believed Japan was winning WW2 right up to the day of the surrender on board the Missouri...
It's true. I got suspended recently.
Where are you getting those numbers? US 155 mm shell production should be 80k / month in 2024, and another factory comes on line around the end of 2024. Rheinmetal fully expects 600k 155 mm shells in 2024, increasing after that. Moscow says they’ll be at 2 million 155 mm shells in 2024. That leaves out a variety of other NATO producers, and also leaves out the Polish / South Korean joint effort.
Even if “Allied” shell production doesn’t quite equal Russian shell production, that leaves out critical factors:
NATO now makes a great many shells that are simply more accurate than their Russian counterparts, and the longer the range, the greater the disparity. Many of the NATO platforms are also quicker to set up (and “scoot”), and easier to use (a byproduct of NATO’s work on interoperable systems).
If the intent is to simply destroy everything in front of you, Russia will still have the advantage in 2024 — except — they don’t,even now* because their shell logistics get taken out.
*At present, neither side looks capable of a quick victory, but consider how, or from where, they got here. Russian tools waxed mightily for months that Russia had an artillery and rocket artillery firing advantage as high as 10:1, as well as many other advantages. Western sources were more conservative at 5:1 or 6:1. Consider what that means: The Ukies are at worst stalemating Russia, since the fall of Mariupol despite, at best, a 5:1 or 6:1 disadvantage in quantity of artillery and rocket artillery firing. Some time in 2024 that disadvantage is going to drop under 2:1.
Then Russia has to get the ammo where it’s needed, and increasingly it looks like their logistics to Crimea and occupied Southern Ukraine are gonna be hosed, Donbas not so much unless the Ukies get lots of ATACMS and such in 2024, which I doubt.
Draw your own conclusions.
Oh, BTW:
https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/manufacturing-by-country
Add up “The West” and it’s allies.
(You don't have to answer that - hahaha!)
Seriously though, the truly excessive rhetoric that's been on the increase here ever since Biden took office probably drives off 99% of the voters. I realize close to 50% are unsalvageable anyway, in present circumstances, but we need to convince moderates and moderate conservatives, not prove to them we are constant gasket-blowers, racists, etc.
Which will have little effect — the Ukrainians are too well dispersed — unless Russia multiple nukes Kiev, and if they do, most likely, most of the rest of us are dead shortly thereafter.
Basically you are confirming that “Russia” is insane.
OTOH, if Russia drops 1 or 2 tactical nukes on the battlefield, NATO has indicated it’d not likely respond with nukes, but would remove, say, Pooty’s Black Sea Fleet. Granted that it is looking more and more as if there’s not going to be a Black Sea Fleet of any substance left to remove, courtesy of the Ukies.
Indeed, those are the very numbers I used for my estimate of Russian capabilities.
“Might” be able to produce 200 tanks — not even close to enough.
“Is producing” based on old data, and ignoring what Rheinmetall says it WILL produce, and evidently ignorant of what the US is currently producing (about 300k shells / year, the absolute minimum next year would be ~ 500k / year)
and evidently ignorant of other NATO countries efforts and evidently ignorant of the Polish / South Korean projects.
The NYT article sounds like it was paid for by our own defense industry, if you get my drift. (Scare people.)
Some solid references:
https://www.thedefensepost.com/2023/08/15/us-155mm-shell-production/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6mU_b_mqCZI
And, finally, again, the US is still 16.8% of ALL global manufacturing, and multiple NATO members each exceed Russia’s industrial base. Unless China goes all in with Russia (they won’t - they need business with The West and allies of The West too badly), in the long run Russia is hosed. I’d just like to see this war end more quickly by sending Ukraine something more than Biden’s present weak stream of popgun weapons, as we have utterly massive stocks of what’s needed. Let the Euro’s provide the financial assistance.
I agree. Some censorship is necessary because we can't have posters making stupid comments like you said.
That said, there's an unofficial position on certain issues so we can't really have a debate when the subject comes up. Otherwise, posters will get pissed off and then the OP gets suspended.
My understanding is that *if* putin were to use a nuke, we and NATO would level russia (not with nukes but with conventional weapons)
putin has been informed of this
It occurs to me that Shoigu is talking here only about defending. That might be misdirection, but, if taken at his word, Russia is hosed. There’s just no way they can win, in the long run, unless they can take Kyiv and (roughly) 60% of Ukraine.
I’ve not heard any NATO official go that far. Nor is it practical and it certainly is not necessary. It would take months and Russia would almost certainly respond with more nukes.
Russia’s seapower is clearly vulnerable: A “proportionate” response of taking out all their larger ships, any subs possible, the Kerch Bridge in a half dozen spots, and destroying all air assets in Crimea should get the message across...
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