Posted on 02/17/2023 11:51:54 PM PST by dennisw
Oh, dennis - your virtue fills Free Republic.
Perhaps we should construct an altar to you here: Saint dennis the Amazing.
Keep praying for your eternal and transmogrifying Putin Salvation. Dunce.
Gosh, Saint dennis.
Can ANYONE have as much virtue as you do?
The blinding lights from your Signaling are overwhelming.
“ … vile warmongers who forced themselves into the Russia/Ukraine mess ,,,”
And who instigated the war in Ukraine?
Did Ukraine invade Russia?
A surprising amount of LNG is transported by truck in the USA.
See Pg 42
https://www.phmsa.dot.gov/sites/phmsa.dot.gov/files/docs/research-and-development/hazmat/reports/71651/fr2-phmsa-hmtrns16-oncall-20mar2019-v3.pdf
Most questions about costs and risk assessments are covered in the link. And yes, the jargon is profound but readable.
Sad to say...
So, I "skimmed" through. Wifey's still mad at me for "honey (grrr...) do's" not done that that displaced. But, it is quite interesting info nonetheless.
Pertinent to the cost debate, is this, from page 47:
The cost to produce and deliver LNG is typically about two to three times the price of natural gas. The LNG can be sold at roughly three to four times the cost of natural gas, as long as it is still cheaper per Btu than propane or diesel.(34)
The "can be sold for" info. can be discarded in this scenario.
So, average further and we are looking at ~2.5x for LNG cost, which sounds pretty, uh, "difficult". However, gas is not the sole source of Germany's energy (the worst case?) by any means, so we need to look at what the true cost of the other sources is, or, perhaps, was, before all this excrement hit the fan, how much those if and how much those alternate supplies can be increased without dire price increases from those sources*, and then examine the real impact of PARTIALLY switching natural gas directly supplied, to LNG.
*Nuclear power generated electricity from France, for example.
That's a VERY complex analysis(!) and I do not claim to have anywhere near the data to even attempt it in a rigorous manner. HOWEVER, a solid known is that natural gas has been running at about 24% of Germany's energy supply the last few years, and of that, the most recent figure I could find is that Russian gas made up 49% of that. In other words, round Russian gas up to 12% of Germany's energy needs formerly supplied by Russian gas. This will be replaced not just with LNG, but also with gas from other sources (none from German fracking, unfortunately), coal, some increases in renewables, electricity from France, some smaller contributors, and then there is always conservation. (Wear a sweater.) Allow a little pressure due to gas's use as a stock in fertilizer, plastics, etc., assuming some of those companies have not already moved out-of-country. All in all, once things settle out a little more, with LNG being upper-bounded in most cases by other energy sources, I don't see the total increase in energy cost to Germany as being over 10% of what would have been spent on total energy usage if none of this ever happened. This is a problem but not a disaster, especially for so wealthy a country.
This assumes next winter is not particularly harsh, which could definitely make things economically difficult through 2024.
Irrelevant.
Relevant:
Russian gas had maxed out at ~12% of Germany’s energy supply. LNG is not going to replace even all of that — other sources are coming into play. With such a small share of Germany’s energy involved, Germany has a problem, not a disaster on its hands. They are wealthy, and even if overall energy costs level out 10% higher than they “should have” (the green transition would eventually take them higher anyway, barring some huge tech advances), it’s a manageable (but hardly optimum) economic situation. And money is not everything.
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