Russia lacks manpower to stop Ukrainian advance in Luhansk, says correspondent embedded with Russian military

CNN.com ^ | October 5, 2022 | Mick Krever

[Bruce Campbells Chin]

As a Tactics instructor at The Basic School in the Marine Corps in the late 80's, we were immersed in Boyd's theories, including a presentation presentationsvan Riper. The Commandant at that time was Al Gray, who also was a huge proponent of what was referred to as manuever warfare. But I have to say I think you have the application of those theories backwards in Ukraine.

1) It's pretty clearly the Ukrainians who have gotten inside the Russian's OODA loop. The Russians are purely in reactive mode, while the Ukrainians are dictating the time and place of operations. Public Russian sources have essentially acknowledged this.

2) Manstein withdrew intact units, in good order, before the Soviets attacked. But that's not what's happening in Ukraine. There, you have a front that is far too thinly held - but held nevertheless - by Russian units attempting a defense. And they've been simply blown out by tight concentrations of Ukrainian units at critical points that then create havoc in Russian rear areas, bypassing and isolating strongpoints for mop-up later. It's classic manuever warfare.

3). I think a surprise, lightning counterstroke from Russian troops is highly unlikely . The difference from WW2 again is that the Ukrainians (via the U.S./NATO) have far superior intelligence. Satellites and SIGINT - coupled with atrocious Russian radio discipline and lack of countermeasures - means that it would be virtually impossible for the Russians to launch a true "surprise" major counterattack.

[Travis McGee]

Don't call the game in the 3rd inning.

[Travis McGee]

See 102.

[Bruce Campbells Chin]

And the Russians would undoubtedly reverse engineer them while sending the US and “Thank you!” card to boot.

The Russians can't even reliably manufacture their own crap. The chances of them being able to reverse engineer and then manufacture far more complex western weapons systems is zero.

[cranked]

“The Russians can’t even reliably manufacture their own crap”

Source or sources?

At least the Russians not building F-35s, F-16s, B-1 bombers, etc. with ‘Chinese parts’.

At least the Russians can produce munitions etc. cause they still have a war industrial base unlike the de-industrialized West/US/UK/EU/NATO, you know, like 155mm rounds, for example.

“The U.S. and Europe are running out of weapons to send to Ukraine”
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/28/the-us-and-europe-are-running-out-of-weapons-to-send-to-ukraine.html

“The US has given Ukraine nearly 1 million 155 mm artillery shells. Now it’s looking for US companies to build more of them.”
https://www.businessinsider.com/us-wants-to-build-artillery-shells-as-it-supplies-ukraine-2022-9

“The US military needs a lot more artillery shells, rockets, and missiles for the next war”
https://taskandpurpose.com/news/military-artillery-shells-rockets-missiles-war-russia-china/

A month or so back, I somewhat chuckled when a number of pictures surfaced from a Russian museum in Moscow that was showing casing captured and destroyed HIMARs and M777 howitzers......

[Bruce Campbells Chin]

500+ militia - MILITIA - held off 6-9+ thousand of Ukrainian forces for nearly two weeks causing huge causalities and kills upon the Ukrainians before withdrawing.

Sez you. I don't buy those numbers for a second.

But let's say they did hold out for some period of time - that doesn't address my point. First, these are "militia" who have years of experience fighting - not a bunch of fat conscripts or short-term reservists years or decades removed from any military experience...if they even had any at all.

Second, they were tasked with digging in and defending a specific point in a built-up area with a continuous line defense - not tasked with covering large streches of open territory that would be the case in Kherson or Zaporizhzhia oblasts, which is where I said they'd have the greatest problem.

[cranked]

Disprove it Bruce Campbells Chin.

[FtrPilot]

My impression is that the most important factor so far has been USA truck launched long range missile artillery.

HIMARs is probably the most important factor in Ukraine's stunning successes. However, other high-tech weaponry get some of the credit.

The Ukrainians used Turkish drones to kill a lot of tanks preventing breakouts and pincers early in the war.

The Ukrainians also used commercial "copter" drones to kill a lot of tanks, APCs, artillery, and other military hardware.

The Ukrainians have used HARMs to negate or destroy the Russian short range/mobile surface-to-air threat.

MANPADs have shot down numerous helicopters and low flying fighter aircraft.

Javelin anti-tank missiles have provided Ukrainian infantry the ability to kill tanks and other armored vehicles during close-in fighting.

Ukrainians have also received night vision equipment. Here's a video of a Night Sniper Shot:

All of these high-tech weapons have been used to great effect.

Also, the Ukrainian's will to fight for freedom and their country is an important factor.

[cranked]

Wanna disprove that the Russians and Donbass militia have 5:1 kill ratios, if not higher, against Ukrainian forces, as well?

[wardaddy]

Western media has never once given a non fabricated or non embellished account

Not one mention of any Russian advance though anyone can see the maps

They also claim Russian total war which is bullshit

Never mention Ukrainian atrocities instead always claiming Russians did it

The three day war claim a lie

Kiev withstood Russian attacks another lie it wasn’t much of an attack but more a hold and withdrawal

Now both sides are jockeying for some line to be in place given Russian plans to increase troops etc and wetter and colder weather coming. Uke falls are wetter than ours apparently

Russia is withdrawing where they see its best and Ukes are advancing where they can

The real war which I imagine will be amped up beyond limited war some

Will tell the tale

I do think USA and nato are managing this now from Germany we hear to escape missles

A good number of uke atrocities on civilians past few days zero mention in the west
Russian strikes on select targets deep inside Ukraine yesterday ignored

Western media lies since 2014

It’s unprecedented

It will continue whenstill its over and that will be lies too even if Putin sat on a throne in Kiev
Just like russiagate
Anyone here curious I’ll be glad to link alternate sourcing

When I ask Z brigade here for what opposition sources they use from Russia they give me propaganda links

One was a virulent twitter Russia hater who claimed to have a Wagner source who says the sky is falling

90% of his tweets were I hate Russia

I can provide folks who don’t trust western media but who attempt to show both sides
Even Russia state sources are more honest that most western outlets

We are managing the propaganda no doubt

Say anything

It’s easy when nobody besides tucker and Bannon of note are countering it

[Lurker]

I’m not. Just pointing up that the Russian army of 2022 is not the Red Army of 1942.

I have a pretty good memory, Matt. And I do recall nearly every pundit telling us over and over again how Putin would have Kiev in 30 days.

That clearly hasn’t happened.

L

[gloryblaze]

Kudos, you two!

[cranked]

“Kharkov Offensive: “You Can Always Regain Territory—You Cannot Regain Human Lives.” - Jacques Baud”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V6GFaOQOpEs

Hmm, sounds like something said before....

[Chode]

you’re already using T62s, T55s aren’t far behind... then what’s the excuse???

[EEGator]

I gotcha.

[cranked]

Russians still have a metric ton of tanks left, Ukraine does not. Fact.

[Flash Bazbeaux]

I’ve had it with the globohomos, and I’m taking action. I’m starting an immediate emergency fund to send Russia all the rubber bands, paper clips, and duct tape I can get my hands on.

[Travis McGee]

Kiev was the first inning.

[Bruce Campbells Chin]

Impossible for us here to prove or disprove either way.

What we can look at is the aftermath, and see whether or not it is consistent with the claims being made. And it doesn't take a lot to remember all the claims you and others have made that the Ukrainian army was all but destroyed long before this counteroffensive started a month ago.

According to your claims prior to September, Ukraine should never have had the ability in the first place to launch the scale of counteroffensive they launched in Kharkiv Oblast. But they did.

Then after that supposedly impossible counteroffensive began, Russian sources, including you guys here, claimed that the Ukrainians had taken incredible losses, were crippled, and would be hit with a devastating counter attack. But that counter-attack on the "crippled" Ukrainian forces never happened.

And then, the supposedly crippled Ukrainian forces managed to extend that counter offensive, driving into Luhansk and Donetsk. How is that possible? The Ukrainian Army was destroyed prior to the original counteroffensive, destroyed (again) in the Kharkiv counteroffensive, but is still gaining ground and pushing forward.

So apparently, the answer to that question was that Ukraine must have scavenged all offensive power they had remaining from other fronts for this last-ditch Ardennes Offensive (as you guys labeled it) in the Northeast.

But wait! There's more! The supposedly exhausted and stripped bare Ukrainian Army has now managed to punch through for significant advances in Kherson Oblast - in the exact.opposite corner of the country! How is that possible??

The bottom line is that I believe the daily reports from either side of casualties inflicted are unreliable. But when I look at the recent Russian claims, and compare them to the significant Ukrainian advances acknowledged even by Russian sources, the Russian claims in particular are not worthy of belief.

[Bruce Campbells Chin]

Russians still have a metric ton of tanks left, Ukraine does not. Fact.

No, it ain't. The vaunted Russian tank reserves are for shite. The only thing you're got left are whatever operational tanks remain in those Russian units that were never sent to Ukraine. That's it.