Posted on 09/16/2022 8:47:41 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Thank you, Wentzel, for your heretofore unrecognized requirements and objectives. (/s)
Russia’s ability to engage in the air is largely facilitated by forces on the ground to restrict the movement of mobile anti-aircraft. The Ukrainians were able control the wider field of battle ensuring their freedom of movement while Russia was stuck in tight formations needed to protect from these roaming units of Ukrainians.
That is largely for the reason of the tight control over the media showing only pro-Ukrainian narratives. The Russian air superiority is obvious based on the fact that the Ukrainian AF is largely destroyed and whatever survived assets are getting shot down once they get into the air.
What is your personal prediction as to what will happen next?
With their superior air power, Will Russia take over all of Ukraine? If so, when do you expect this to happen?
Tyson Wetzel is incorrect on so many levels, its not even funny nor worth rebuking.
‘Russia failed to establish air superiority’ - fully incorrect And is no doubt a deflection from the fact that it is Ukraine that has failed to establish air superiority. Oh, that’s right, I am sure it is not cause their Air Force has been decimated.
‘capture Kyiv’
Kyiv was never a target to be taken by the Russians which further indicates that the all-knowing intelligence man Tyson Wetzel fails at knowing why the Russian pushed towards Kyiv in the first place.
‘take any major cities in northern Ukraine’
Apparently, Tyson Wetzel fails at either reading or comprehending what one reads....more like both probably given he has failed to comprehend the spelled-out goals and objectives of the Russian SMO, which can easily be obtained online.
‘Donbas campaign is locked in a virtual stalemate’
Again, Tyson Wetzel’s failure to comprehend overall Russian strategy, on both the tactical and strategic level.
Am I a Nostradamus? The original Russian objective was to secure Ukraine as a neutral country and to hand it back Donbas on terms which are going to calm the right wing inside Russia.
In February the objectives updated to Donbas as a separate entity plus neutrality and Ukraine briefly agreed, until Johnson convinced them not to do so.
Now I think the objectives are the south of which all but Odessa and Nikolayev are under Russian control already.
I have no idea what are Putin’s plans at this point but don’t see technical difficulties to make the southern story complete. It have been done in Mariupol and can be done elsewhere.
The problem I think is the economic war declared by the West which is not going away once the war is won without Western concessions.
Hence I thing we’d see a pause to let Europe cook in own juices for a while because Russia has an upper hand on economy for now.
The problem with the pause is that Europe is fully aware of the situation and tries to force Ukraine into breaking the status quo. They want whatever solution at this point to start normalization, even if it means the loss for Ukraine.
How is it going to play out I don’t know but any scenario involving the Russian loss is fantastic.
Your turn on shift? Kinda late for you two.
Must be getting overtime pay.
Debate the message, not the messenger, you think dink?
The Ukrainian Air Force was vastly outnumbered to begin with.
That they still exist, and still have airfields and etc., and can now make use of HARM missiles, etc - that all is a massive feat.
The Russian AF manifestly cannot intrude over most Ukrainian territory. Why should they be expending things like standoff missiles to strike into Ukraine? That stuff is expensive and much less accurate than the up close and personal tactical laser guided bombs’s, the Russian equivalent of JDAMs, and the like.
They certainly have failed to suppress Ukrainian air defenses or they would be flying manned aircraft all over Ukraine, not just at low altitude at the edges of Ukrainian control.
Pretty funny that you, one of the biggest russian bots around, has to admit you have no idea wtf putin is doing.
Excuses and more excuses.
The main source cited within this article - the all-knowing intelligence man Tyson Wetzel - is the epitome of what is called ‘POLITICIZED INTELLIGENCE’ and it is not a new phenomenon, just one used extensively in this Ukraine-Russia war/conflict.
‘The Politicization of Intelligence in Ukraine’
https://sonar21.com/the-politicization-of-intelligence-in-ukraine/
“I suppose you would be shocked to learn that the same sort of shenanigans is going on in Ukraine. Well, it is true. I have learned that the U.S. intelligence community is publishing “facts” about what is happening on the ground in Ukraine based solely on information passed to us by Ukraine. The intelligence provided to U.S. leaders is politically slanted and is not being checked against other sources, such as signal intercepts and photography, to ensure the information is accurate.”
In the meantime, the war/conflict rolls steadily onward....
‘Russia Encircles Bakhmut, Ukraine Offensives at Standstill; Samarkand Putin Meets Xi, Iran Joins SCO’
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U-gPSrsaR0s
Author states.....”Russia was supposed to breeze over Ukraine, taking Kyiv “within days”....
Got that far and knew the authors off in that Russia never intended to take Kiev. That was a diversion which worked as Kiev used it’s forces focused on Kiev while Russia forces ran the landbridge it wanted.
Yep, he’s following the usual protocol of advising people to learn to fight the prior war. Never fails (to get people killed).
One effect of being unable to fly over Ukrainian territory, just as an example, is the widespread use of pontoon bridges by the Ukrainians (as well as the Russians of course). With air supremacy none of these bridges could survive.
If an environment of air supremacy, aircraft on the spot can locate and attack sighted, real time targets like pontoon bridges, with laser guided bombs or the like. Long range stand off missiles require a plotted location be available upon launch. Russia doesnt have long range recon assets that can do that. That bridge is likely to be 100m upstream at that time the missile arrives.
Ukraine uses US satellite recon (which is way more real-time) to supply GPS coordinates to HIMARS, which have a short range, but also short flight time. This makes it very difficult for the Russians to keep even ferries afloat.
If everything were right with the world, in the POV of the Rus AF, the Russians would be doing unto the Ukrainians likewise, but everywhere. But, obviously, the Ru AF has serious problems.
What sort of not you are? I made suggestions and sure that it is going to play out around these lines.
All over Russian state TV, propagandists have been painstakingly painting the picture that Russian troops retreated after battling NATO—not Ukraine. One pundit made fun of the transparent plot to make Russia's defeats seem less humiliating, angering the Kremlin's mouthpieces. pic.twitter.com/6gEh6hpiey— Julia Davis (@JuliaDavisNews) September 16, 2022
They didnt intend to take Kiev? Why then throw the cream of their armies there, including a column of thousands of Internal Security troops?
And I mean Armies, as in the equivalent of US Corps commands. That was a sledgehammer that outnumbered Ukrainian assets in the Kiev front by 3:1 at least.
This line of argument is absurd.
You are confusing air superiority with air supremacy. The latter is largely impossible against a large industrialized nation nowadays. As a side note, the theater of operations is particularly huge, the Russian AF flies hundreds of sorties daily but they can’t be anywhere at the same time. Anyway, air power is a major factor behind the failure of the recent Ukrainian offensive. If it is not reported it doesn’t mean it doesn’t take place.
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