Posted on 09/03/2022 10:12:26 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
“Russia’s capacity to export LNG is limited.”
It is only a fraction of its former total production, and those terminals (Sakhalin and Yamal) were built to handle separate supply deals with Japan and China. They are not surplus capacity laying around just in case, and they are of much lower total volume than the pipeline network to Europe.
“It is only a fraction of its former total production”
Based on what? I haven’t heard of anything to that effect.
Dream on. Play pretend.
Or look it up yourself.
“Dream on. Play pretend. Or look it up yourself.”
You’re making the claims and HAVE NOT provided a single link to support them.
We'll see. Euro leaders can now argue it is Putin who made the energy situation / prices even more dire. Up to this point the EU had only slapped Pooty's wrists (by Russia's own arguments / claims, some of which are valid, such as the near irrelevance of price caps), the EU was not really blocking energy passing through 3rd parties, filling of reserves was ahead of schedule, and so on. Sure, one can engage in interminable arguments about why Putin invaded, and claim prior blame and root causes, but "Putin shut off the gas" is simple and remains his final, compelling non-military move in terms of effect on Europe (unless he turns it back on). That will stick in people's minds and EU pols will make sure it does.
Keep in mind that those pols have an advantage: To most Euros, esp. those under 60 or so, Putin's invasion of Ukraine is (or at least was) literally unthinkable, about this || far from Pooty nuking several major Euro cities for no reason. Even the Ukies who were increasingly tussling with Russia for (actually) a couple decades, with a backdrop of centuries of historical Russian horrors, and then saw a huge buildup of a pretty obvious invasion force, didn't believe a large invasion would happen.
Further, most of those Euros supported the push away from coal and nuclear power and were fine with dependency on Russia as a gas supplier. A finger pointed at Putin is easier to accept than owning up to their own stupidity.
So... In what is really just the upcoming 2nd inning of this game, even if Europe has a colder than avg. winter (the long range forecast is for a warmish winter), my guess is that the EU pols have fertile ground to turn their energy crisis to their advantage politically. ("Never fail to take advantage of a crisis.") If that holds through the spring, and Ukraine doesn't fall by then (likely), EU and NATO unity will mostly hold: IMO, Pooty will be at a serious disadvantage. All will be damaged, but his opponents will still have at least 30x the wealth to work from.
Germany played stupid games and is now winning stupid prizes.
Where can one find current data (say, 2020, to date) from a neutral source?
If nothing else, just factor in the much longer transport times to get the bulk of the gas to China or India, vs. Europe. For LNG it’s 2-7 days to European terminals, for China it’s around 35. Best case (averaged) you need around 6x the ships. They don’t exist.
Basic supply chain math.
Why would Poles give or sell their Coal to Germany when Poles will need it?
... Brussels stand alone ...
________________________
IF the EU falls apart (not saying it is, though it’s likely), does that affect NATO? Do separate agreements/treaties then have to be drawn between the now-separate nation & NATO?
Serious question. IDK
“The key figure is what is Russia’s gas export revenue over time.
Where can one find current data (say, 2020, to date) from a neutral source?”
Russia has stopped openly reporting a lot of economic data, including info on oil and gas shipments and revenues. Now they are State secrets.
The other side of the trade (buyers) typically still openly report the transactions, but it is hard to get reliable numbers since the war started.
Be careful..... BeauBo is stupidly honest and not a liar. He has an oil biz background/
We like/love the gals who can sift though and see it all.
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