Russia on brink of humiliation - Ukraine 'within striking distance' of Crimea water supply

EXPRESS ^ | Russia on brink of humiliation - Ukraine 'within striking distance' of Crimea water supply | CLAIRE ANDERSON

[PIF]

If more than a handful of troops are killed, it will basically end the CCP. Each male in Chinese culture must provide for his immediate and extended family on both sides. If he does not, the family will disown him. If he dies the family will face starvation, homelessness and death from not being able to afford medicine. There is no social safety net in China.

[Zhang Fei]

Ukraine ping

[While I agree in general with all you write, Ukraine is not stalled. It appears they are nearly at the borders of the city of Kherson and may liberate it.

Ukraine is stalled where Russia has massed all its forces, and Russia isn’t doing swell despite that massing.]

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That’s the one saving grace. While Ukrainian artillery is all played out for lack of ammo, Russian armor and infantry alike are similarly tapped out for lack of morale and trained personnel. It’s not my impression that there’s any great desire on the part of ordinary Russians to engage personally in some great crusade. From babushkas on down to draft age individuals, they are perfectly willing to have someone else risk his life, but a general mobilization would be personally risky for Putin. Nicholas II beckons.

[Zhang Fei]

Ukraine ping (observations on Taiwan, leg 3 of a potential Afghanistan, Ukraine and Taiwan trifecta of Biden foreign policy disasters)

Greetings Puny Humans: [The economy is doing terrible, hyperinflation is setting in, now would be the time to launch an invasion of Taiwan.]

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IMHO, those would actually restrain Xi rather than propel him towards an invasion. Typically, rulers quashed their internal opposition and attempted to make sure all was quiet on the home front before embarking on foreign adventures.

Dictators spend a great deal of time fending off domestic rivals, men who include some of his hand-picked subordinates. Politics is not a chess game where the ruler gets to sacrifice pieces at his whim. In chess, the pieces don’t conspire to strangle the player or slaughter his heirs.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emperor_Yang_of_Sui#Late_reign
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zhao_Gao#Coup_following_Qin_Shi_Huang‘s_death

Mao was practically a living god in his lifetime. The moment he died, his widow, the de facto ruler of China, was deposed by his underlings:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jiang_Qing#1976_coup

China’s internal problems mean Xi is *less* likely to invade Taiwan. The prosecution of a war will require his complete attention, leaving more room for his subordinates to conspire against him without detection.

The risk of internal challenges in course of domestic difficulties is offset by Biden’s manifest timidity, shown in stark relief by his Ukraine policy. Biden is likely the only president timid enough to avoid a direct confrontation with China over an invasion. If the US responds with serious resources, China is certain to lose. But if he responds as he’s doing in Ukraine - half-heartedly - China is sure to win. Gotta wonder how many daisy petals Xi has gone through trying to divine the odds of an uncharacteristically strong response from Biden.

[FreshPrince]

“It’s almost over.”

Been hearing that from Putards since at least early April if not before that....

[miserare]

But this time, it’s for real.

[UMCRevMom@aol.com]

Russia Mulls Lithuania’s ‘Illegal’ Independence From Moscow
https://www.newsweek.com/russia-moscow-lithuania-independence-soviet-union-yevgeny-fyodorov-1714138

[gleeaikin]

Did you see today’s TV about a big EU meeting and discussion about rapid consideration about EU membership for Ukraine and Moldova? Macron spoke favorably.

[gleeaikin]

Remember, Biden is from Scranton. I know about guys from small towns of that type. I was married to one, they do fight.

[Forward the Light Brigade]

Ukraine is winning again! They don’t need any more Billions, they will crush Russian Orks and send them packing. One Hero Ukraine can beat ten Russian pinheads with old guns and tanks that do not work. There ships can not stand against the rockets Ukraine has—the Ukraine will sink the whole Russian Black sea fleet and retake Crimea next week. Will be over in a month with Russians running for their lives. The only place you will hear Russian is in the vast POW Camps. Then, the March on Moscow with Poland and Turkey’s help, Moscow will fall by August 16th. The war is over—Ukraine won.

[cranked]

It’s good to be positive, despite reality.

[PIF]

It appears they are nearly at the borders of the city of Kherson and may liberate it.
—
Those Kherson reports are not to be believed - there is no confirmation of such an advance. In fact assaults are difficult and the ZSU has little to no experience - defense is all they have trained for. Ukraine is not stalled anywhere. They are fighting a war in retreat by attriting the Orcs - in hopes (now fading) that the West would supply massive heavy weapons and shells. They are out of their own 122mm sand 152mm shells and the West has only supplied enough 155mm shells to last hours from the handful of tubes supplied or, in the best of cases, a few days across the 1500km front.

The lines in the Kherson area, east to Zaporizhya region, are fairly static and have been for weeks - as neither side has many troops along that line - most are are at Izyum-Severodonetsk-Popasna regions.