Posted on 05/02/2022 6:51:30 AM PDT by marcusmaximus
No need to be sarcastic. Do you think Russia has skin in the game in protecting the breakaway Russian Speaking Republics? Somehow us cold warriors helped keep the peace with Russia since WW2 by the tenets of strength, and respecting each other’s space. We seem to have forgotten both…
Good point
“Do you think Russia has skin in the game in protecting the breakaway Russian Speaking Republics?”
No,they don’t. Especially not when they have to cross an internationally recognized border to do it.
L
Ukraine: military situation update with maps, May 1, 2022
War in Ukraine
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCP2QApi8G2TKc8NZmeDWSUg/videos
**Popular support
UK 84-90% support for defensive war
Russia 10% support the war.
Poling of Russians is incredibly sketchy, if a polling company phones you up and asks you if you support the war, it’s currently unlawful to be against it. That will effect your data.
**This is essentially a war between 2 societies, each see world differently, and pursue different goals
Removing Putin is not going to solve the problem.
**Supply of Western heavy weapons from many countries and maintenance:
Extreme weapons diversity: problem becomes systems maintainability. Small batches from here and there of different systems becomes unwieldy and not maintainable in the long run
Because the war will go one for at least another 2 months, these unneseaarilcy diverse systems will need maintenance and start parts - both of which may not be available. Which in turn means that once these things happen, the troops will be forced to abandon the weapons system. Will lead to unnecessary attrition. This is not the way to be successful in a war.
All equipment is being supplied with spare parts or a supply line with access to spares. This has been mentioned multiple times by different suppliers. So may not become a problem after all.
**Role of Artillery:
UA artillery is not at par with Russian; why Russian artillery functions better now, and is technical reason why UA has not gone on offensive now - will be detail topic tomorrow.
Summary:
Key areas:
- Izyum bridgehead - no expansion today.
- Russian troops are slowly mopping up corner between Oskil and Siverskiy Donets rivers controlled by Ukrainian side before.
- Zaporizhya frontline - small Russian gains near Velyka Novosilka.
1. Kharkiv: Russian counter-attack to recapture village of Ruska Lozova and Kutuzivka; Ukrainian attack towards village of Staryi Saltiv.
**Russian counter attacks
**UA counter attacks with aim of cutting Russian supply line to Izumi
2. Izyum bridgehead: No major Russian progress today. It is extremely dangerous penetration by Russian troops that potentially could lead to large pocket for Ukrainian troops west of Donetsk.
**Russian continuing unsuccessful attacks at present
**Russian troops slowly pushing out UA troops
3. Lyman bridgehead. Russian side claims progress in mopping up this bridgehead held by Ukrainian troops. Specifically, village of Yampil, Krymky, Oleksandrivka are claimed as captured. It’s totally possible scenario.
**Heavy shelling on Lyman (pop. 23,000) in prep for future attack.
4. Popasna, Rubizhne and Severodonetsk. Russian troops captured majority of Rubizhne. Popasna is about 70-80% captured by Russian troops. Russian mercenaries - Wagner Group operates in Popasna, also Russian 57 brigade operates there as well.
**If Russia successful in taking salient, they will destroy 1/2 of the UA army.
*Major fighting in Popasna, but no progess
5. West of Donetsk: Avidyivka and Maryinka. Avdiyivaka - never ending attempts of the Russian side to break-through there.
**Russian keep attacking same places, but no progress
6. Vugledar is in Ukrainian hands.
7. Velyka Novosilka - Gulyapole stretch of frontline. Ukrainian strongholds are towns of Gulyaypole and village of Velyka Novosilka. Russian 19D is operating there. Russian troops are consolidating their gains. Also, 42D has been spotted in the area. Russian troops caputred village Vremivka attached to Velyka Novosilka from west and separate by small river.
**Velyka Novosilka, Russian troops from 19th D and 42nd D pushing UA east widening opening and forming a new salient aimed north to Izyum. The southern Russian pincer forming up.
**UA 109th, 53rd, 503 B, 110th, 35th NB, International and Chechen Vol. operating in that area.
**RGF 19th D, 42nd D operating in that area.
8. No new attacks on Orikhiv.
9. Mariupol: opportunity to do a breakout attempt by the Ukrainian forces might have been lost as density of Russian troops increased due to smaller perimeter. Based on other sources, opportunity to break out is still viable.
10. Mykolayiv: No major changes.
Did we not cross an international border when Victoria Nuland helped Depose Yanukovich?
“Also today, Ukraine takes out ammo depot at Kherson airport.”
Kherson Airport?
Again?
There needs to be a meme for that.
No we did not.
Did Russia cross our borders when they helped to frame Trump?
L
You mean this guy?
I didn't know he was a pootie-poofter.
Hey, pal. How about sticking on topic? The topic of this thread is more sunk Russian ships.
Start your own thread on Victoria Nuland and her cookies or whatever if you want. You are deliberately derailing this thread with gaslighting nonsense because Russia has been humiliated yet again. That’s textbook troll behavior.
“Because the war will go on for at least another 2 months, these unnecessarily diverse systems will need maintenance and spare parts”
Some of the reasoning for that, seems to be that the chance of the war dragging on even longer (through the end of the year or longer), is now assessed as likely. That means that the old Soviet weapons and ammunition stocks just won’t last, and that the Ukraine will have to transition over to NATO standard gear to keep fighting.
The transition period will have its logistics challenges for sure, but they have no time to wait.
Another reason, is that after the atrocities of the Russian occupation came to light after they withdrew from around Kiev, the dam has broken on Western Government’s hesitation to provide a full spectrum of Military support.
Pushing forward some NATO systems is not just a one to one replacement, but often a significant capability upgrade. NATO artillery is a really different bird from the Russian stuff. It can give the Ukrainians a force multiplier advantage, which they really need against a larger enemy Military.
I may have derailed the thread. For that I apologize. But gaslighting? Truth is not gaslighting. Do you know what gaslighting means?
With NATO artillery and more counter battery radars, the UA will theoretically be able to mount offenses
You said our youth. Isn’t happening.
But we can hope the Russians stop
Or die.
No we did not cross a border when a coup occurred in Ukraine.
Crossing a border is crossing a border, like what Russia did.
“With NATO artillery and more counter battery radars, the UA will theoretically be able to mount offenses.”
I like to say that the Javelins and NLAWs made it unsafe for Russian forces to move around, and the NATO artillery will make it unsafe for them to stand still.
I believe that the Artillery package is very much by design, intended to support offensives (and also to relieve the urban areas that have been pounded almost at will by Russian artillery so far).
It has sucked to be a Russian tanker, and soon their artillerymen will be in stiff competition for whose job sucks worse. There are few things that artillerymen hate worse, than enemy artillerymen. They usually prefer to target each other first.
The 90 rapidly deployable light American M777 155mm howitzers are reported to be 80% delivered, and 100 trainers have graduated the six day training course - at least one for each gun. They are expected to open fire this week (if the first rounds have not already gone downrange).
The day that Congress approves the new $33 billion request, I expect that more Artillery will be sent on the way, and would not be surprised if it is moving forward now, in anticipation. Several European Countries have already announced additional 155mm artillery systems for the Ukraine, including a few of the awesome self-propelled PzH2000s (Panzerhaubitze 2000). They should be flowing in as well.
I expect that not only more tubes will be going, but probably some of the SMArt and BONUS rounds (anti-armor), some longer range rocket assisted boosters (40 milers) and super accurate Excalibur rounds. Maybe some M109 Paladin self-propelled 155mm guns.
Artillery is called the King of Battle. For good reason.
Apparently the boats were operating around “Snake Island”. New video shows Uke Bayraktars took out air defense systems on the island on Saturday.
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1521234811641372678
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1521228670878298114
It would appear Ukraine has received replacements for the drones they lost early in the war. One of the drones Russia shot down had markings indicating it was produced in March 2022.
About 45 on the 777s were moving up the the front last week. But 90 is too few too late.
Interdiction of locomotives and bridges across the Dnieper River will slowly make it impossible to get heavy weapons and ammo to the front. There is no other way but rail to move efficiently large heavy loads across the geography of Ukraine
The 90 rapidly deployable light American M777 155mm howitzers are reported to be 80% delivered, and 100 trainers have graduated the six day training course - at least one for each gun.
It’s actually 200 Ukrainians already trained on the M777. Yesterday Denmark announced heavy mortars and a batch of APC for Ukraine . Could get even rougher for the Russian occupiers soon. They’ll probably be wishing they were in the Russian Navy soon. Or maybe not. LOL.
The M777s are relatively light (under 5 tons). We often sling them around under helicopters, but they can be road marched around too, or ferried across rivers - anywhere trucks can go.
Easier than moving tanks.
We often sling them around under helicopters,
—
Nice idea, but helicopters are an iffy proposition in Ukraine as they are subject to ground fire, SU-25s, Russian helicopters, manpads. That’s if the UA even has helicopters with the lift capacity.
Rail is the only efficient way to move large amounts of ammo and particularly arty rounds across 700-800 miles to the front. The Russians have knocked out a number of locomotives (which cannot be resupplied because of the wide gauge, except from the factory in Russia).
The idea is that there will be no bridges left across the Dniepr River that divides the country in half. No bridges, no river crossing, no trucks, no locomotives, no heavy weapons, no ammo.
It takes 100,000 arty rounds a week at current expenditures, if the Russians keep up targeting rail yards and bridges, there will be no way to supply their troops, even at the low level of supply now. Ukraine will be forced to withdraw to the west side of the Dniepr; western weapons will become a moot issue.
Here’s a pertinent update from 04/26/22:
**Oil reserves in Donbas region (21m mark): drilled in 2014-2015, not economical, some fracking, but poor quality. Russian propaganda that there is lots of oil in the region.
**Ukraine not self-sufficient in oil, imports mostly finished products. Large natural gas storage ESE of Lviv - largest in Europe.
**Railroad strike halted most passenger service - remaining locomotives used for long haul commercial and military. Eventually Russia will get all of them rail system will stop, and effects will be immediate.
**Hit rail bridge between Moldova and Ukraine which Russians believed to be a source of diesel fuel.
**Fuel from Poland and some from Slovakia now distributed by regular looking long haul commercial trucks. Indestructible system, but more expensive than rail. Weakness is all the 30-40 bridges that cross the Dnieper river, some 1000 meters long. If destroyed will be strong hit on UA military situation.
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