Posted on 04/23/2022 8:45:02 AM PDT by marcusmaximus
A back of the envelope calculation gives about .3 officers per enlisted man. That means if you have X enlisted, you’ll have .3X officers. We in the West tend to think money is unlimited and therefore if we need a certain amount of infrastructure, we’ll just build it. But Russia doesn’t have the money or the capacity to build enough infrastructure to support the number of men they have plus all the added infrastructure it would take to spread the officers out for safety. Thus, they’re all sharing the same infrastructure. Ordinarily that wouldn’t matter except here, where it does. The US is telling the Ukrainians where and how to target the infrastructure.
The mistake the West has made is that Russian decision making would be driven by the same calculous we use. But the Russian decisions are driven by a uniquely Russian calculous. Here’s a link as to what that is and why.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SlShr0J4M0Y
If this keeps up, Russia’s top commanders will be Lieutenants promoted to General
For what it’s worth.
I just now had an assistant professor at some European college tell me (online) Russia is winning and winning BIG.
I asked him to explain why as all the news we get are videos of Russian defeats and losses. I’m still waiting for his reply.
Thanks for the heads up. He seems quite knowledgeable and attacks some of these issues from the periphery. That kind of source can be a good source of sanity check.
Except for the setting, images looks too familiar.
So that’s 11 dead RGF generals now? Am losing count. Help!
Peacetime armies tend to be top heavy on officers, anticipating mobilization needs, even if there is no conscription system.
I get what you’re saying re infrastructure, but what I’m talking about are (standard) field expedients requiring cheap labor and cheap materials. Surely the Russians have piles of old field telephones and phone wire.
I think you’re giving too much credit to Biden and his command staff for having the brain cells necessary to do this.
I could see the Trump administration do this but Biden can’t think that fast let alone make a command decision on limited Intel on a moment’s notice. Recall he didn’t even want to pull the trigger to take out bin laden and our intelligence had him pinned at that location for months.
In any case, the notices of dead colonels and generals I’ve seen give their commands, and they are at the expected levels of their western counterparts. Colonels command regiments or brigades, lt. colonels or majors battalions. Generals command divisions or “Armies”, which are Army Corps in western systems. There were a couple of generals which were staff officers.
All perfectly normal.
You forget that “Biden” and etc arent in charge in the field. There are Ukrainians, Britons, Poles and no doubt others running things. I doubt the US has any micromanaging control on the ground in Ukraine.
The problem with a corrupt authoritarian structure is that is there is no inherent trust between the levels of commands. The superior officer can never be sure that what he is being told by the men below him is true or just what the guy thinks the superior officer wants to hear.
I mean that was the problem, with the invasion in the first place, Putin believed the lies his underlings told him about how strong and ready the Russian forces are.
The generals face the same problem, so they have to be on the frontlines otherwise they can’t believe anything they are told of how things are going.
Biden does not want to be giving the intel and weapons to Ukraine, but politically, he’s being forced to. It’s all about the Black Sea now.
“I get what you’re saying re infrastructure, but what I’m talking about are (standard) field expedients requiring cheap labor and cheap materials. Surely the Russians have piles of old field telephones and phone wire.”
I’m not arguing with you, here’s just a couple of thoughts. The Russian oligarchs have monetized as much of the stuff under their control as possible. Those yachts aren’t cheap. So, if there was a bunch of old stuff containing valuable materials like copper, then it has long since been sold for scrap. The man in charge of the facility where they had stored a lot of their tanks committed suicide when the tanks were ordered made ready for mobilization and only one in ten was even capable of being started. There’s probably a reason beyond simple embarrassment. It is likely that he’s been selling off components for a long time. Remember that a huge number of nations still use those tanks and used parts in good condition have a high value. Likely he was living better than his salary would indicate and the value of those parts was part of why. Multiply this across thousands upon thousands of supposedly stored assets and I suspect you’ll only have the tip of that iceberg. There’s an old Russian saying that liberally translates to, “Don’t pay me more. Just give me the key to the warehouse.”
I think the Russians have bunched up on their working assets because they have to do that. Not because they haven’t thought this through.
I knew a man who had moved here after the fall of the Soviet system. Then his wife went back to Moscow to take care of her mother when the mother needed constant care and they found they couldn’t trust anyone to do it for them at any price. The level of corruption at every level she dealt with was breathtaking. Only the fact she was able to pay for everything she needed in dollars allowed for any creature comforts at all. The drugs, despite being paid for in dollars, were always suspect and by paying a premium above the “normal” bribes was she able to buy stuff that still had the tamper seals on it.
We’re talking about an entire society that is spectacularly corrupt at every level. I suspect that there are no old field telephones available at any price.
I wonder how much is due to using cellphones/ social media, etc.?
You mean the US has been on top. No doubt the US is feeding the Ukrainians the intelligence so the Ukrainians can use US precision weapons to take out the Russian military brass. This is the kind of crap that will get us into WW3. It is likely Putin will find verifiable proof and use as an excuse to attack US military assets in the area. Then it's off to the races.
Somewhere in Russia, a Colonel is getting a phone call:
“We have good news and bad news. Congratulations on your promotion. The bad news is you need to pack for Ukraine. Make a will. And get us a good photo.”
Putin’s in effect purging his officer corps just like his mustachioed hero ol’ Joe Stalin did. Replacing them all with promoted loyalists.
Not too many American generals have died in the front lines, says something about the Russkies.
It has never been denied. What "proof" would make a difference?
If Russian assets have been put at extreme risk with a minimal use of US intellegence and assets, how much more at risk would they be in a general USA-Russian war?
I do not find your assertion to be persuasive.
There is massive pressure on Russian military because of May 9th.
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