Posted on 02/25/2022 8:26:28 PM PST by SeekAndFind
It’s always extremely difficult to subjugate a hostile population with its own cultural and national identity. Ukraine resistance can be resupplied by Romania and the Black Sea.
Under Putin, Russia will be a pariah state and subjected to economic isolation. Spending blood and treasure to tamp down resistance and occupy the country will destabilize Russia economically and politically. Installing a puppet government in Kiev will not pacify the Ukrainians.
I suspect we will know within 3 to 4 days what the outcome will be.
I’m taking all these reports with a huge grain of salt.
But what I do believe is that Putin only has a short window to conclude this or Generals will start turning on him.
Ukraine isn’t Nazi Germany, and the forces Putin has arrayed represent a couple of weeks casualties for Zhukov.
It's a city of 3 million people. It ain't Grozny.
No Russians except Putin’s cronies perceive Ukraine as a threat. There’s no way most of the Russian soldiery has a high motivation for this fight.
Nobody cared about Grozny, it’s not in Europe.
This is Europe, the optics matter much more.
The optics here count against Putin: the more civilian casualties, the higher the chance of outside intervention.
Exactly!
Nobody cares if he bombs Muslims, sorry to say that, ditto for the Chinese with the Uighurs.
Ukrainians have had 30 years of self rule. They will not accept Russia’s yoke and chains willingly. This will be a total war shit show. Fully expect Putin will need to resort to strategic bombing and possibly WMD due to the abysmal popularity of the war amongst the troops and people.
Offensive operations using low morale troops are universally disasters.
This is strategic and political miscalculation comparable to the Soviet invasion of Finland in 1939. It will test the performance of Putin’s political apparatus. Echo chambers have consequences.
I think Ukraine’s best hope is to engage Russia in a protracted urban guerilla war. A quagmire might bring Putin back to the negotiating table.
Zhukov lost a million men in taking Berlin. I don’t think the Russians are up for that kind of expense in Kiev.
Big mistake to use Chechens. I can’t imagine anything more likely to enrage Ukrainians than Muslim thugs shooting at them.
In fact, I could see Russians switching sides. That’s my advice to the Ukrainians, make it easy for Russians to surrender and come over to your side.
I’ve been in Russia a dozen times, and Ukraine 18. Ukraine over Russia any day. Especially in this case where Russia has invaded Ukraine.
If you had seen first-hand the remnants of the Maidan Revolution, as I did in June 2014, you’d understand “This is what the fight for freedom looks like.”
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.