Russia pulls some troops back from Ukraine border, slams invasion reports

nypost.com ^ | 2/15/22 | Yaron Steinbuch

[ought-six]

You can easily look it up. In 2019 Zelensky supported a referendum on Ukraine joining NATO (no such referendum was held), and he reiterated his support for same a few days ago. A referendum would allow the Ukrainian people to decide if Ukraine should purse its desire to join NATO (as identified in the 2019 addition to the Ukrainian constitution, sans a referendum). In a nutshell, Zelensky’s proposal is to let the Ukrainian people decide: Yea or Nay. (Thus, a Nay vote on the referendum would preclude Ukraine joining NATO.) In any event, NATO hasn’t even given Ukraine a MAP (Membership Action Plan), which is a precondition to becoming part of the NATO alliance; and, while there has been some desire on the part of some NATO members to present Ukraine with a MAP, nothing concrete has come forth. There must be consensus among NATO members to bring another country into the fold (i.e., it need not be unanimous, but there can be no dissenting positions).

The Minsk agreements do not obligate Russia in any way as to CRIMEA and SEVASTOPOL, because those had already been incorporated in the Russian Federation before the Minsk agreements, and thus would not fall under OSCE supervision. That is Russia’s argument; others, of course, disagree. In 2014 Crimea and Sevastopol voted to secede from Ukraine and become part of the Russian Federation. That may or may not be legally acceptable from an international standpoint.

I am merely pointing out positions, and I am not taking any stance on whether or not they are right or wrong. I understand the arguments from the various sides. It’s like our Civil War (1861-1865): It is my position that the Southern states had the right to secede; the Lincoln administration thought otherwise, and since the North won the war, that became the acceptable conclusion. It is ever thus.

[rbmillerjr]

Incorrect.............again

Minsk obligates foreign military to leave, which is Russia. The Crimean illegal annexation is not recognized by international community, neither are the eastern Ukraine territories.

Ukraine literally desires NATO membership, which is expressed in their Constitution. Nothing has changed. If that changes then it will be huge news. It has not.

[ought-six]

Crimea and Sevastopol had already been incorporated into the Russian Federation, in accordance with the wishes and desires and vote of their respective citizens and governments (2014), before the final Minsk agreement (2015). Neither Minsk I (2014) nor Minsk II (2015) even mentioned Crimea or Sevastopol, but they DID specifically mention the Districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts (basically, Donbas). Indeed, rebel representatives from both Donetsk and Luhansk participated in the Minsk agreements, and signed same. Moreover, Russia never would have participated in the Minsk agreements if Crimea and Sevastopol were on the table; hence, the annexation was a fait accompli. Ukraine got screwed by the Minsk agreements. Then again, Russians are pretty adept at realpolitik. They are untrustworthy as hell, but they play the game very, very well.

Here is a pretty good summary of the Minsk agreements by Jonathan Brunson from 2019:

“The mechanism intended to bring about peace in Donbas, the 2014–15 Minsk Agreements, is unlikely to succeed. Ukraine, Russia, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), and two deposed separatist leaders signed these documents, which stopped heavy fighting and eased suffering, but also provoked nationalists who quickly cast it as favoring defiant rebels over other loyal Ukrainians. In an effort to level the playing field, strengthen distant loyalties, and ensure equal constitutional rights for all citizens, Minsk also calls for nationwide government decentralization as an olive branch to remaining pro-Russian federalists in Ukraine’s restive southeast.

But Minsk is broadly perceived as a bad agreement that Ukraine has little incentive to implement because its essence runs directly counter to Ukrainian interests of Euro-Atlantic integration, national unity, social cohesion, and true equal rights for all. Russian President Vladimir Putin was the only one smiling when it was finalized in February 2015. Russia’s looming regional presence, European eagerness to make a deal with the continent’s largest army, and U.S. reluctance to ever fight that army have left Kyiv with Minsk as its only option. While it has not stopped Russia’s intervention, the agreement has been a useful tool to keep all parties at the table and kinetic activity low. But as usual, Moscow remains poised to invade; Russian forces have been arrayed along the border ever since it was created in 1991. Ukraine will always be where Russia wants it: right next door and at the Kremlin’s mercy.”

[rbmillerjr]

“Crimea and Sevastopol had already been incorporated into the Russian Federation”

Your mindless acceptance of Russian propaganda is exemplary. They should increase your pay.

Nobody gives a rats arss that the Russia has done anything regarding Crimea. It was illegally annexed and is not recognized by any international entity.

Russia was sanctioned and booted out of the G8 as a penalty.

[ought-six]

“Your mindless acceptance of Russian propaganda is exemplary. They should increase your pay. Nobody gives a rats arss that the Russia has done anything regarding Crimea. It was illegally annexed and is not recognized by any international entity. Russia was sanctioned and booted out of the G8 as a penalty.”

Nice try.

I am a realist (and you obviously are not). I said that Russia’s annexation of Crimea was a fait accompli. Interestingly enough, you seem to agree with me, per your comment “Nobody gives a rats arss that the Russia has done anything regarding Crimea.” Yeah, the UN can wax indignant about it, but so what? The international community wagged its collective finger at Nazi Germany for annexing Austria in the Anschluss in 1938. But Austria remained a part of the Third Reich until the end of WWII (yes, it took a world war to separate Austria from the German Reich). Crimea and Sevastopol are too important to Russia, and it would likely take Russia’s military defeat to restore Crimea and Sevastopol to Ukraine. So, until that happens, Crimea and Sevastopol are part of the Russian Federation, no matter what you say.

So, Russia was sanctioned? Russia says, “So what? Sanctions are a small price to pay to keep Crimea and Sevastopol.” Look at it this way: Texas and the American Southwest used to part of Mexico. If today Mexico annexed those states and territories, “returning them to the fold,” and the UN sanctioned Mexico, Mexico’s response would be “So what? We now have Texas oil and ports; California ports and agriculture, Nevada silver, etc.” Mexico would have the better deal, by far.

[rbmillerjr]

Sanctions are hurting Russia and the next round will be far worse and the Russina people will pay for Putin’s errors.

Crimea is senseless. We can’t take out those naval assets in 1 day.

[ought-six]

“Crimea is senseless. We can’t take out those naval assets in 1 day.”

I don’t think we’d even try. Better to just block the Bosporus, which would pretty much neutralize Russia’s Black Sea fleet. Which brings up an interesting question: Turkey. It is a NATO member, but not a very dependable one — especially under Erdogan. We couldn’t do much about the Bosporus without Turkey. Russia’s best bet for warm-water port facilities, would be to build up some of the Syrian ports or some of the ports in North Africa. Yes, it would take some diplomatic wrangling, and some carrots and sticks, but it could be doable. Another possibility would be India, with whom Russia enjoys very good relations. In fact, India gets almost 70% of its military hardware from Russia. Indian Ocean ports would be very valuable to Russia. But, again, it would take some wheeling and dealing.

You mention the Russian people suffering under the sanctions. I don’t think that is a deal-breaker between the Russian people and Putin. Russians are fatalists, and hardship doesn’t really bother them. Russians will suffer any hardship and deprivation for Mother Russia; and if they think their leadership look upon the Motherland as they do, the Russian people will tolerate almost any leadership.

Interesting people, the Russians. Untrustworthy as hell; but interesting.

[rbmillerjr]

“You mention the Russian people suffering under the sanctions. I don’t think that is a deal-breaker”

Just wait until this next round, which is mislabeled as “sanctions”. It’s going to be uber next level stuff, which will drain and damage the Russian economy for 10 years. All due to Putin if he invades.

I agree that the Russians are an interesting history and people. I honestly feel for them. Countries like Poland and Hungary are thriving and growing while Russia is completely limited by Putin’s antics.

How best to contain Russia. Just watch them keep “electing” Putin, lol. Same goes for the interesting people of China. The longer the CCP is in power, the more they restrain themselves. If China were free with their economy they would be nearly unstoppable. I’ve studied both nations for many years. I truly hope one day they will throw off the yoke of Putin and the CCP.

[ought-six]

If, brother, if. (From one of my favorite movies.)

[Forward the Light Brigade]

Putin isn’t a Commonest—gave that ideology up—He is a Russian Nationalist (at Best) a Russian Imperialist (at worst). He doesn’t want World Socialism He wants A Russian Empire. He’s a cagy old tyrant—who will kill opposition leaders or anyone he sees as Traitorous to Russia. An un forgiving Strong Man. Will he use Biden’s weakness to gain an advantage? You Bet! In fact, he wouldn’t be doing his job if he didn’t. He thinks more like a 19th Century ruler than a Globalist 21st Century Political leader—and that means he is dangerous. He has more in Common with Teddy Roosevelt than Bush, Obama, or Biden. Thats why Trump understood him so well. Once Putin signed the deal with Xi of China—he won. China could take the wind out of any sanctions, and blunt any military moves. Today, Russia-China is a powerful force that would be impossible to defeat—Just as USA, UK and USSR were undefeatable in WW II.