Posted on 10/31/2020 5:48:13 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
From that WAPOST article:
“Joe Biden on Saturday prepared to mount a last-minute, two-day blitz of Pennsylvania, amid concern among some local Democrats about a potential late shift that would threaten his narrow advantage there and mirror President Trump’s 2016 comeback.
Most Democrats still believe Biden will capture Pennsylvania, and he maintains a modest polling lead there, but their confidence has eroded in recent weeks with emerging signs of a tightening contest in the state, according to elected officials, strategists and party activists. Both sides believe the outcome in Pennsylvania will be crucial in determining who wins the White House.
The causes of Democrats’ anxiety are varied. They worry about potential trouble with mail-in ballots during a pandemic. They are concerned about the prospect of a voter surge in White, rural areas favorable to Trump and signs of lower-than-anticipated turnout among the Democratic base.”
I remember telling Speedy that same thing in 2016. As Iowa goes so goes Wisconsin...
DMR final on house races:
“Among likely Iowa voters:
#IA01:
51% Republican
36% Democrat
#IA02:
41% Republican
40% Democrat
#IA03:
39% Republican
45% Democrat
#IA04
50% Republican
33% Democrat”
Dems were up 96,400 start of business in Florida 2016. Early vote this time, democrat and republican, is roughly 130% of 2016. So wouldn’t the equivalent gap in 2020 be 130% of 96,400? Or 125,320?
But what will decide the election is what we don’t know: Crossover votes between parties, combined with the split of the (currently) 1.8 million independents. 53/47 split of independents creates over 100,000 vote gap either way.
By all means, vote! Get like minded folks to go vote! Don’t let anyone forget or ignore - unless they are democrats! ;>)
My personal bottom line: Democrats have pushed voting by mail. PUSHED it! And there is very real anger by democrats against Trump. But the republican side is roughly even with 2016, and I honestly don’t know any Republicans of any sort who have abandoned Trump in the last 4 years. The squishy suburban Republican types were even squishier 4 years ago. I know a couple who have switched to reluctant but firm Trump voters.
I’m in Arizona. I honestly don’t see Hispanics voting for the party of shutdowns and no family gatherings! The Hispanics (OK, around here, the Mexicans) I know are almost entirely pro-family, pro-business types who are NOT sniveling cowards! Will they vote for Lock Down Joe? For “You Can’t See Your Grandpa Joe”?
I just don’t see it. And when I wear a Trump mask in bleeding liberal Pima County, I get a LOT of thumbs up from Mexicans. NO DIRTY LOOKS. Just a totally informal, unscientific sample, but....while it sucks not knowing, we have much to encourage us.
“I remember telling Speedy that same thing in 2016. As Iowa goes so goes Wisconsin...”
It is true. I really remember it.
Ravi even added “you can take it to the bank”.
Never forgot that.
Arizona that seems to be pulling away towards Potus? I don’t think so, especially not as a PA substitute. More delusion on their part.
Richard Baris:
Peoples_Pundit @Peoples_Pundit
Arizona: @realDonaldTrump
48.0%, @JoeBiden
45.3%, @Jorgensen4POTUS
3.0%.
Leaners/late deciders improved the president’s vote share in in Maricopa. Proposition 207 strongly favored to pass w/ majority support across all parties.
Those registration changes last week were brutal for the Dems.
“FLORIDA
Trump 49%
Biden 49%
@atlas_intel, LV, 10/28-29
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20201031_FL_AtlasIntel.pdf";
They are close. I’m going to give it to Trump by 1-1.5.
Silver:
“I do think people overthink things some times. In an 800-person poll, the margin of error for the difference between candidates is ~7 points. And 1 in 20 polls will fall outside that margin of error, i.e. be more than 7 points away from the true number.”
Still in denial. Oh wait, I thought he said believe the polls.
Wasserman: Believe the polls, well unless I disagree with it.
“If you want to play the “unskew Selzer” game, one thing I can tell you is that Republicans are not about to win #IA01 (which flipped blue in ‘18 by 5%) by 15%.”
Another great find.
DMR has set the twitter world ablaze.
The political analysts have to explain why its all wrong.
Even UMich Voter has bowed down to Iowa.
“DMR has an A+ from 538 for two reasons: One, they’re often accurate, and two (importantly), they’re not afraid to show results that seem to be outliers and that end up being right (i.e. they don’t herd at the end).
If Selzer retains her A+, it’s because of polls like this one.”
It was probably Ds who wanted to extend reg in AZ.
And Rs netted more.
Dubuque is in the 1st district. I cannot figure out why Trump is going there. Yeah, it bleeds over into Wisconsin. So go to WI then. Trump doesn’t need help in IA, neither does Ernst really, but he could help the Repub candidates AND Ernst if he went to IA-02 or IA-03.
Not a poll fan myself but it’s pretty funny that Selzer Poll offered a “don’t want to tell” option. 5% chose that - think more polls should offer that.
Good point. Think you have some really good advice regarding his travel schedule. I have no idea but what you say makes sense.
Harry Enten: “I have now received approximately 232 messages about the Selzer poll.”
The Dems are in full panic mode.
At Speedy’s house, I’m hyper but confident. The data says no Biden landslide. That was always BS.
String together the states needed for 270.
I’m sure Trump is happy tonight.
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